POLITICS-US: Military Panel Calls Warming a Major Threat

By Stephen Leahy Reprint | | Print |

Stephen Leahy

BROOKLIN, Canada, May 15 2007 (IPS) - Senior retired military officers in the United States are urging immediate action on climate change to avoid a massive upsurge in regional and global instability that could threaten their country’s security.

Senior retired military officers in the United States are urging immediate action on climate change to avoid a massive upsurge in regional and global instability that could threaten their country’s security.

Climate change is a “threat multiplier”, said 11 retired three- and four-star U.S. generals and admirals who make up a military advisory board put together by the non-profit CNA Corporation. They warned Monday that many Asian, African and Middle Eastern nations could fail, opening the door for terrorists and drawing the U.S. into a variety of new conflicts.

“Great instability comes with climate change and that could be a big problem for us,” said Lt. Gen. Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. (Ret.), former deputy chief of staff for plans and programmes at the U.S. Air Force Headquarters.

Farrell pointed out that four billion people live within 45 miles of the world’s coastlines, and even a small sea level rise could have a huge impact on hundreds of millions of people.

Forty percent of the world’s population derives at least half their drinking water from snow melt from mountain glaciers – many of which will disappear in the decades ahead, said the report, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change”.

The U.S. military takes a pragmatic view and “wants to reduce the potential for conflict and its own dependence on fossil fuels,” he said.

However, increased conflict is unavoidable in the view of the British-based charity Christian Aid.

With nearly 155 million people currently displaced, up to one billion people may be forced to flee their homes over the next four decades due to climate change and other factors, warns a new Christian Aid report released Monday, “Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis”.

The U.S. military and Christian Aid reports agree that climate change will lead to more failed states and greater instability with the potential to spin out of control in some regions of the world.

Urgent action by the world community is needed if the worst effects of this crisis are to be averted, says Christian Aid.

“People live where they can survive. If conditions change, then they move,” said Gen. Paul J. Kern (Ret.), former commanding general of the U.S. Army Material Command.

“We have to act before it is too late to do something,” Kern said.

“National Security and the Threat of Climate Change” notes that climate change has the potential to spawn sustained natural and humanitarian disasters unlike anything ever experienced. The U.S. is likely to be drawn into providing aid, mitigating worsening conditions or stopping terrorists from taking over failed states.

In addition, by 2015, up to 40 percent of U.S. oil imports will come from Africa – far more than comes from the Middle East, noted Gen. Charles F. Wald (Ret.), former deputy commander of the U.S. European Command.

“U.S. involvement in Africa will only increase,” Wald said.

A new approach to security will be needed, one that is focused on helping countries withstand the impacts of climate change to prevent their collapse. Many African countries are already on the brink, he said.

Failed and failing states will lead to dramatic increases in displaced people and Europe and the U.S. will also face enormous pressure to accept large numbers of immigrants from Africa and Latin America.

Even if there are some disputes around the science of climate change, the decision to take action must be made now to reduce the risk of extremely negative impacts, Kern argued.

“What the military does well is plan for various scenarios,” he said.

Kern and his fellow generals called on the White House to take a leadership position on the climate change issue.

President George W. Bush has so far refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, although the U.S. is by far the world’s largest source of these pollutants. Between 1990 and 2005, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions grew by 16 percent, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

But other rapidly developing economies are also increasingly contributing to the problem. Noting that China is building a new coal-fired power plant every week to 10 days, international cooperation and multilateralism, in addition to new carbon-neutral technology, is desperately needed, the panel said.

“The U.S. needs a national policy for clean coal technology and to share this technology with other countries,” said Wald.

Very bad things are likely to happen unless something is done now, he concluded.

Some in the U.S. Congress appear to agree. Last month, two prominent senators, Dick Durbin and Chuck Hagel, introduced bipartisan legislation that would require a National Intelligence Estimate to assess the threats posed by climate change.

It would require the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, the Pentagon and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to pool data and offer a comprehensive review of the impact on U.S. national security from global warming over the next 30 years.