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PHILIPPINES: Ketsana Signals Need for ‘No Regrets’ Adaptation Plan

Prime Sarmiento interviews CHARLOTTE L. STERRET, Oxfam's global adviser for climate change adaptation

MANILA, Oct 4 2009 (IPS) - Typhoon Ketsana, which swept into the Philippines and left hundreds of people dead and massive devastation in its wake, should serve as a wake-up call to the government.

The tropical storm that battered the South-east Asian country on Sep. 26 underscored the country’s vulnerability to strong cyclones and must spur the government to launch a comprehensive disaster preparedness plan, according to Charlotte L. Sterret, global adviser for climate change adaptation to Oxfam, a Britain-based development, advocacy and relief agency.

“Cyclones won’t go away, and activities such as cyclone shelters, community preparedness plans, and simple building techniques can help vulnerable people cope with cyclones,” Sterret said in an interview with IPS.

Sterret, who was in Manila recently to participate in Oxfam-led dialogues with local communities, said that it is the poor who are most vulnerable to natural disasters like typhoon Ketsana.

“Poverty drives more people to live in areas that are exposed to cyclone impacts such as steep hillsides. Poverty also denies them the safe shelter and other infrastructure and services that would reduce the risk they face,” she said.

Ketsana devastated the country’s capital as well as surrounding areas in Luzon, northern Philippines, killed some 240 people and forced at least 145,000 others to flee their homes. Experts said that the typhoon, which brought the heaviest rains in the country for the last 40 years, was an indication that the Philippines was already reeling from climate change.

Oxfam, which has been on the forefront of the climate change debate, cannot say if Ketsana is a direct impact of climate change. “The science around global warming and how it interacts with other human systems is extremely complex. So while we can say with almost 100 percent certainty that climate change is happening, its impacts are less certain. More research is still needed, ” Sterret said.

She said, however, that the need for a “no regrets” adaptation – the importance of preparing for any natural calamity, which may or may not be attributable to climate change, cannot be emphasised enough.

She explained why developing countries like the Philippines are more vulnerable to climate change compared to others, and what needs to be done about it.

IPS: Ketsana is said to be one of the worst typhoons to hit the Philippines. Is it fair to say that this is due to climate change?

CHARLOTTE L. STERRET: Based on what we know to date, it is very difficult to attribute any particular tropical cyclone to climate change. The impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is one of the most controversial areas in climate science. There are several reasons for this.

Tropical cyclones are both comparatively rare events and vary hugely from year to year.

The historical record of cyclone observations is poor. In the past, tropical cyclones were only recorded if they made landfall or if they crossed a shipping channel. In the last few decades they have been detected by satellite, but comparing these two sets of information is fraught with difficulty, and so trends over time are difficult to assess.

Global climate models work at too big a scale to ‘generate’ tropical cyclones — so how climate change affects them is difficult to determine. Several things also need to be in place for a tropical cyclone to form, including warm sea surface temperatures, little change in the wind with height, and a large- scale vortex in the lower atmosphere. Each of these is likely to be affected differently by climate change.

IPS: Do you expect another ‘Ketsana’ to hit the Philippines because of global warming?

CLS: The scientific debate is not whether global warming can cause a trend in tropical cyclone intensities. The question is how large a change (it can cause): a relatively small one several decades into the future or large changes occurring today? Published analyses of the observational record support either conclusion, while theory and numerical modeling results suggest the former.

There is no evidence that the annual numbers of tropical cyclones has changed at all in recent decades. But observations suggest that tropical cyclones may have become more intense. This (data) is mainly from the North Atlantic (generated in the) 1970s, and although there is similar evidence from other regions, the quality of data is poorer. However, this suggested increase in cyclone intensity is still being debated, and even if it is true, it is not clear that it has been caused by climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said there’s a 66 percent chance that tropical cyclones will become more intense, with higher wind speeds and heavier rainfall. Any increase in wind intensity is likely to be modest. The possible increase in rainfall associated with tropical cyclones is likely to be higher.

IPS: Is the Philippines vulnerable to climate change?

CLS: Vulnerability is dictated by a number of factors, including access to resources. The Philippines is vulnerable because of its high level of poverty incidence and the inequality between urban and rural populations.

It’s also vulnerable because of its physical characteristics. It’s in the typhoon belt. It’s an island nation, with many communities in the coastal areas. Any rise in sea level will affect the communities. It can lead to saltwater inundation of agricultural lands and pollute water sources.

A small increase in sea level also increases the incidence of high tides, typhoon, cyclones. You get a lot more water coming in. It comes on land, destroy homes. This will become worse under climate change.

IPS: What are the worrisome signs that the Philippines is now experiencing climate change?

CLS: The communities that Oxfam are working in are saying that they’re now experiencing changes in temperature. There’s a delay on the onset of rainy seasons, and that it is hard to tell the difference in seasons now.

IPS: What are the crucial points that the Philippine delegation should put forward in the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) that will be held in Copenhagen this December?

CLS: We like to see developing countries like the Philippines to have a strong position on mitigation and adaptation. It’s crucial to negotiate on making sure that countries should cut emissions. The reason for that is that there’s a limit to adaptation.

Industrialised countries must also help developing nations in adaptation — not just on financing, but also in providing technical support.

There should be equity within the global deal. Developing countries can continue to develop in a responsible way. In order to do that, they need both technical and financial assistance.

IPS: Apart from preparing for the negotiations in Copenhagen, what can the Philippine government do now to lessen the impact of climate change?

CLS: The government needs to develop a comprehensive and inclusive adaptation plan. (It) should consult several stakeholders — not just experts and scientists … they also need to involve affected communities. Oxfam would like to see more involvement from marginalised groups, including children, women and indigenous people. It’s important for this adaptation plan to be as inclusive as possible.

Oxfam is also calling for the passage of the Disaster Risk Management bill, which remains pending in Congress. This proposed law seeks to change the policy framework of disaster response in the country from emergency relief to risk reduction.