DEVELOPMENT:
Climate Change Likely to Increase African Hunger Woes
Julio Godoy
BERLIN, Nov 18 (IPS) - Africa, the continent already most affected by hunger and food scarcity, is likely
to see its woes increased due to climate change and the changing rain patterns
it provokes, experts and scientists say.
According to data gathered by the German Institute for Meteorology and
Climate Research, variability in the rain patterns in Africa, especially in the
Western region, has substantially increased since the early 1980s.
Harald Kunstmann, director of the institute, says that while in the Sahel
region the drought that set in through the 1970s and 1980s has not radically
changed, in the Volta delta region the yearly rain precipitation amount
remains constant as a whole, but now follows erratic patterns.
For the Volga delta, "we have observed a small increase in rain amount of
some five percent per year," Kunstmann, a researcher in climate change and
terrestrial hydrology, told IPS. At the same time, "there is a drastic decrease
of rain in April, the month that marks the transition from the dry to the rainy
season in the area," he said.
This decrease at times reaches up to 70 percent of precipitation.
Another observed phenomenon in the Volta region during the last 40 years is
the shortening of the rainy season, and a delay of its beginning of up to 30
days.
"Global warming changes the traditional fresh water circuit," Kunstmann told
IPS. Higher average temperatures lead to higher humidity in the air, and thus
to more intensive rain, but also to faster evaporation and condensation.
"Consequences of such changes in the fresh water circuits are more frequent
floods and longer and more intensive droughts," Kunstmann said.
For agriculture, such erratic weather has dramatic consequences. Both floods
and drought destroy seeds and fields, abnormal weather forces changes in
the farmers' plantation schedules and routines.
Such changes are confirmed already both by farmers in Africa, and by
researchers in the industrialised world.
Namanga Ngongi, a farmer from Cameroon, and president of the Alliance for
a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), told a recent conference on agriculture
and climate change in Salzburg, Austria, that "global warming is already
destroying African agriculture. There are more and more frequent droughts,
more frequent floods, and also more destruction," he said.
This destruction of agriculture through climate change adds to the increasing
hunger already present in numerous African countries.
According to the World Hunger Index, as measured by the Washington-based
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), since 1990 hunger
increased drastically in nine African countries: In the Democratic Republic of
Congo, hunger increased by 67 percent, in Swaziland by 32 percent, in
Guinea Bissau, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Liberia by 19, 18, 17 and 16 percent
respectively.
In that period, Egypt was the only African country able to substantially reduce
food scarcity and hunger. All other successful developing countries were
either East Asian, Arab, or Latin American nations.
The German non-governmental organisation Welthungerhilfe (World Hunger
Aid) arrived at similar conclusions. According to its 2009 World Hunger Index,
in at least 28 countries, mostly in the Sub Saharan region, hunger reaches
"serious, even very serious dimensions," the report says.
World Hunger Aid also ranks the Democratic Republic of Congo as the
country with the worst results in the fight against hunger, followed by
Burundi, Eritrea, Sierra Leone, Chad, and Ethiopia.
Other than climate change and war, incorrect policy tools are at the root of
the failure to combat hunger, said Michael Windfuhr, of the German church
organisation Brot fuer die Welt (Bread for the World). "State budgets for
agriculture in most African state have been reduced by some 50 percent in
the last 20 years," Windfuhr told IPS. "But also international cooperation and
development aid has moved away from supporting local food production in
developing countries."
Furthermore, wrong agricultural policies have damaged the soil in many
African countries, making it more susceptible to erosion, and reducing
farming yields, Windfuhr added.
"To make things worse, subsidies for agriculture in Europe and North America
and increasing export of these highly subsidised agricultural goods to
developing countries have crowded out local food production," he pointed
out.
In contrast, some developing countries, such as Brazil, have shown how to
combat hunger successfully, Windfuhr said. "By financially supporting poor
families engaged in small-sized agriculture, Brazil has been able since 2003
to help some 20 million people to escape from poverty," he said.
But, from the climate change point of view, Brazil is also target of criticism for
allowing the mass eroding of tropical forest in the Amazon region, for large
agriculture purposes, especially for the breeding of cattle.
In its recent ‘Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation’
report, updated Nov. 6, the IFPRI also calls attention to the extreme
vulnerability of agriculture to climate change.
"Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while
encouraging weed and pest proliferation," Gerald Nelson, leading author of
the report, told IPS. "Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood
of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines."
IFPRI says that, "Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions
of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are
expected to be negative, threatening global food security."
In its report, IFPRI calls attention to local specificities of crop and livestock
productivity, market access, and the effects of climate. It urges international
development agencies and national governments "to ensure that technical,
financial, and capacity-building support reaches local communities."
Another IFPRI recommendation is to strengthen collection and dissemination
of data. Regular, repeated observations of the surface of the earth via remote
sensing are critical, George Nelson said.
"Funding for national statistical programs should be increased so that they
can fulfil the task of monitoring global change," the report points out.
"Understanding agriculture/climate interactions well enough to support
adaptation and mitigation activities based on land use requires major
improvements in data collection, dissemination, and analysis."
This is something the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research
is already doing. Harald Kunstmann and his institute have modelled computer
weather forecasts for Cameroon and neighbouring countries that take into
consideration the changing rain patterns in the area.
These models are the basis for new yearly schedules for ploughing and
sowing, which would heed the changing weather calendars, and adapt old
agricultural traditions to global warming-induced erratic rain patterns.
(END/2009)
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