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A CRUCIAL YEAR FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION
Joaquin Roy

JANUARY 2007 (IPS) - It may sound dramatic, but it may be now or never for the EU, writes Joaquin Roy, ''Jean Monnet'' professor and Director of the European Union Centre of the University of Miami.

In this analysis Roy writes that this will be a decisive year for the organisation: it is now 50 years since it took its first daring step with the Rome Treaty of March 1957, which transformed the initial European Steel and Coal Community, formed in 1951, by incorporating the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community.

It has now been five years since the adoption of the euro by 300 million citizens in the thirteen countries of the EU as well as a handful of mini-states that had used the currencies of member states. The euro was a success in all basic monetary operations. Although the dollar remains dominant in terms of the setting of prices and tallying debt, as an exchange currency the euro is on the verge of surpassing it.

However, while these two ambitious moves proved highly successful, the warnings made simultaneously about the need for institutional reform of an organisation used to dealing with fifteen more-or-less collegial members have not been heeded. Unfortunately the Constitution was derailed halfway through the ratification process after rejection by Dutch and French voters. With the project on hold until more favourable conditions emerge, observers are now looking towards the German presidency of the EU in the current semester and the results of France's May elections. The energy of the former and the disposition of the new leadership in Paris will determine the future course of the EU.

/NOT FOR PUBLICATION IN AUSTRALIA, CANADA, NEW ZEALAND, CZECH REPUBLIC, IRELAND, POLAND, SPAIN, UNITED STATES, OR UNITED KINGDOM/ (END/2007)
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