Challenges of the Doha Agenda

By Supachai Panitchpakdi (*)

Multilateralism is the only sustainable way to secure our global future. At Doha in November 2001, in a climate of dangerous international uncertainty, World Trade Organisation (WTO) members showed the determination to make multilateralism work.

What the world needs today is a reaffirmation of this choice of multilateralism over unilateralism, of stability over uncertainty, consensus over conflict, and rules over power.

Trade liberalisation is a powerful ally of sustainable development. Given that trade barriers harm the poorest, removing trade barriers helps alleviate poverty.

But while trade offers one solution, for sustainable development to work, we will also need solutions in other areas, and we need these solutions now and not in some hypothetical future. Finding solutions begins with recognising that shared problems cannot be solved by unilateral approaches.

There is great expectation about the results of the Doha negotiations and for good reason. The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects 2002, estimates that abolishing all trade barriers could boost global income over a ten year period by USD 2.8 trillion. Of this, developing countries stand to reap more than half, and an additional reduction in global poverty of 320 million people by 2015. These are rough estimates, but they provide us with a clear indication: freer trade, accompanied by appropriate domestic macroeconomic policies and a sound legal framework, is vital in helping poor countries grow their way out of poverty and move on to the path of sustainable development.

The share of developing countries in world trade has grown to around 30 per cent and it could be made to grow even higher. One way to do this is by improving market access for products of particular interest to developing countries, such as agriculture goods and textiles. This one action will make a huge difference to the lives of millions.

We should also remember that trade is not a zero-sum game. Developed countries also stand to gain from trade liberalisation in these areas. For instance, agricultural support in developed countries, which comes close to USD 1 billion every day, represents a significant cost to developed country tax payers and consumers.

In the WTO, developed country members have committed themselves to respond to the concerns of developing countries, but more could be done.

The prospects to conclude the Round and to make the results serve each and everyone are good, though time is limited: ministers at Doha agreed that the current negotiations shall be concluded no later than 1 January 2005.

The Doha Development Agenda has been under negotiation now for over one year, with mixed results. The good news is we have moved forward and the level of participation by Members is rising.

However, there is a certain unevenness in progress among the different areas of the Work Programme. At the end of last year we succeeded in establishing guidelines to facilitate the accession of less developed countries to the WTO. However, we were not able to meet the deadlines related to special and differential treatment for developing countries and access to essential medicines for poor countries lacking capacity to manufacture such drugs themselves.

Failure to meet these deadlines has been quite disappointing. These two issues are of great importance not only to developing countries but to the Organisation itself and to the broader trade negotiations that are part of the Doha Development Agenda. Nonetheless, I have been informed of the Members' commitment to continue to work to find agreement in these complex and difficult negotiations, and I am hopeful a solution can be found in early 2003.

In preparation for the Fifth Ministerial Conference, slated for September 10-14, in Cancun, Mexico, a number of further deadlines have been set which should bring a needed sense of urgency to the negotiations. By spring 2003, we will face deadlines in the negotiations on agriculture, services, and market access for non-agricultural products. By the end of May 2003, agreement on improvements and clarifications to the Dispute Settlement Understanding will be required. If these deadlines are not met, we run a real risk of overloading the agenda at Cancun, which is already very substantial.

The WTO has moved from the failure of Seattle to the success of Doha. To ensure that we continue to be successful and conclude the Round with balanced outcomes, all members have to understand and accommodate the needs of their partners. Richer countries need to fulfil the promise of a development Round. Developing countries, for their part, need to ensure through their positive engagement in the negotiations that they make the most of their opportunities. A strengthened multilateral trading system is in the interest of every country.

(*) Supachai Panitchpakdi, Director-General of the World Trade Organisation.