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IRAQ: Mideast Nuclear Weapons Free Zone a Non-Starter
Analysis - By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Apr 24 (IPS) - When U.S. President George W. Bush recently enunciated his new military doctrine of ”pre-emptive” strikes on countries developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD), he specifically warned Iraq, Iran and North Korea to clean up their acts or face dire consequences.
But he deliberately left out Israel, India and Pakistan - all close U.S. allies armed with WMD - from his potential ”hit list”.
With Iraq as the first military casualty of the ”pre-emptive” doctrine, defence analysts and Arab nations are calling for an even-handed U.S. policy on nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.
The first salvo was fired last week when Syria circulated a draft resolution in the 15-member United Nations Security Council calling for the establishment of a ''nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East''.
There have been three similar previous initiatives - one by Iran in 1974, a second by Egypt in 1985 and a third by Syria in 1989 - all of which were purely theoretical exercises.
The current draft resolution is implicitly directed at Israel, the only Middle East nation armed with nuclear weapons.
Last week, the 'Washington Post' quoted U.S. intelligence sources as saying that Israel may have as many as 300 nuclear weapons and missile warheads.
Syria has also asked U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan to submit a report on a NWFZ zone within one month of the date of the resolution, which calls on the region's countries to declare their support for a Middle East ''free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction, and the veritable destruction of such weapons''.
The General Assembly has adopted several similar resolutions in the past, including one during the 10th Special Session on Disarmament in 1978, but unlike Security Council resolutions, they do not carry any political weight.
Syrian Ambassador Mikhail Wehbe told reporters the draft resolution is not on the Security Council agenda yet but is being circulated among members and studied by experts.
Already, diplomatic sources here are predicting the initiative is likely to fail because the United States would block any attempts at disarming Israel, a staunch U.S. ally that also receives more than three billion dollars in outright military and economic grants annually from Washington.
They also suggest that the U.S. administration might have already strong-armed Damascus into withdrawing the initiative.
''Last week, the Syrians were threatened by Bush who accused them of not only developing WMD but also harbouring Iraqi leaders fleeing the country,'' one Asian diplomat told IPS. ''But two days later Bush changed his tune and publicly declared that Syria was now cooperating with the United States.''
''Does this also include U.S. attempts to pressure Syria to withdraw its resolution?'' he asked.
It is common knowledge that Israel has the most extensive WMD programme and arsenal in the Middle East, Mouin Rabbani, a Middle East political analyst and director of the Palestinian-American Research Centre, told IPS. ''It is the region's only nuclear power, possessing several hundred warheads and stocks of virtually every chemical and biological agent that is known,'' he said.
The nation also has an extensive research and development programme, so it is possible it possesses chemical and biological warfare agents unknown elsewhere, he added.
''The long and the short of it is that Israel enjoys total impunity when it comes to the proliferation of WMD - its programmes are in fact actively assisted by those who used Iraq's alleged WMD capacity as a pretext to overthrow its regime, and this despite Israel's refusal to ratify the relevant treaties,'' Rabbani said.
Israel, India and Pakistan have refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which has been signed by Iraq and Iran. Early this year, North Korea announced it was withdrawing from the NPT over a dispute with the United States.
While Israel has refused to ratify the Chemical Weapons Convention, Syria says it will sign only when Israel ratifies.
Because of U.S. support for Israel, it is generally believed that the chances of a NWFZ in the Middle East are virtually nil, Rabbani added.
Joseph Cirincione, lead author of 'Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction', says it is almost certain that the existence and spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons will remain an urgent public concern and policy problem, despite the U.S. occupation of Iraq.
''Does focusing non-proliferation policy only on certain regimes - Iran, Iraq and North Korea - while implicitly accepting others' possession of nuclear weapons - India, Israel and Pakistan - undermine long-term prospects of preventing proliferation?'' asked Cirincione, who is also director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The bottom line, he writes in the current issue of 'Arms Control Today', is that ''you cannot get rid of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons programmes in Arab countries unless you also address the elimination of Israel's nuclear and chemical programmes.''
(END/2003)
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