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MIDEAST: Sanctions Unlikely to Hurt Syria
By George Baghdadi
DAMASCUS, May 17 (IPS) - The limited sanctions imposed on Syria are unlikely to do it much harm, or the United States much good.
As Damascus condemned President George W. Bush's implementation of the Syrian Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SALSA, as it has come to be called), analysts agree the sanctions are largely symbolic.
After months of sabre-rattling Bush chose only the minimum sanctions under SALSA. They include a near ban on U.S. exports to Syria other than food and medicine, and a requirement that U.S. banks sever ties with the state-owned Commercial Bank of Syria.
The hesitation reflects the U.S. dilemma in dealing with Damascus. On the one hand, Washington wants to punish Syria for its alleged support to Palestinian radical groups like Hamas and its alleged failure to stop infiltration of anti-U.S. elements into Iraq. On the other hand, Syria has cooperated significantly with the United States against al-Qaeda.
Analysts say the long-threatened sanctions will not affect the economy directly because sanctions of sorts have been in place for years because Syria is on the U.S. 'black list' of states sponsoring terrorism. Trade between the United States and Syria is a modest 300 million dollars a year, but several U.S. companies are developing Syria's oil and gas sectors..
Bush did not ban U.S. investments in Syria. Between 300 and 400 U.S. companies have representative offices in Syria, according to the U.S. embassy in Damascus. These include IT firms such as IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Compaq.
Syria now markets all of its crude oil, including that produced by foreign companies, through state marketing company Sytrol. This company has a 25 percent stake in a Petro-Canada led proposal to develop natural gas in Syria that also involves several U.S. companies.
"It will be more psychological," Syrian economic expert Nabil Sukkar told IPS. But he acknowledged that "the sanctions could scare off some companies and have a negative impact on the inflow of investments at a time when Syria has launched an economic modernisation programme."
There is little trade that could be affected. Only one percent of Syrian exports go to the United States compared to almost 60 percent to the European Union (EU). Only five percent of imports are from the United States, says Sukkar.
Europeans could be looking at new business opportunities because of the sanctions. Spain has invited President Bashar Assad early June, and a high- level EU trade delegation will travel to Syria this weekend to improve cooperation in exporting oil and gas to Europe.
"First, the sanctions are unjust and unjustified," said information minister Ahmad Al-Hassan. "Second, they will have little effect on our country, because we do not have strong trade relations with the United States. Still, we will try to make agreements with European, Japanese and Asian companies and reinforce our relationships with them."
The 22-member Arab League has said the embargo would only harden Arab opinion against the United States. The organisation said in a statement that the sanctions would "add to the sour feelings in the region and will raise more questions among Arab people" about U.S. plans for the region.
"At least the situation is clearer now and we know what to expect," said a Damascus businessman dealing extensively with U.S. companies. "At present, the sanctions impact Syria much more politically than economically, placing it in the enemy camp."
The sanctions under SALSA also provide for a ban on non-existent Syrian flights to the United States except those chartered by the Syrian government for official business. Diplomatic ties remain intact.
A defiant President Bashar Assad has said he would not bow to U.S. demands to expel Palestinian militant groups. He refuted charges by the Bush administration that his country has weapons of mass destruction and is allowing foreign fighters to move across the border into Iraq.
In a 90-minute meeting with U.S. editors following the sanctions order, Assad recognised his country would eventually need U.S. help in winning back territory Syria lost to Israel in the 1967 Mideast war.
"Of course, we cannot abandon our occupied lands and the United States has an important role," Assad said. But he pointed out that this was not a priority for the United States.
"The sanctions would hurt American interests more than the Syrian interests," Mohammed Aziz Shukri, professor of international law at Damascus University told IPS. "Frankly speaking, we couldn't care less about these sanctions. We are expecting the worst from this administration - we expect more than the sanctions." (END)
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