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UKRAINE: Compromise in Sight
By Zoltán Dujisin
BUDAPEST, Apr 25 (IPS) - Ukraine's political crisis could be solved soon
as government and the pro-presidential
opposition have entered into a dialogue following weeks of bitter
confrontation.
On Apr. 2 Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko issued a decree dissolving
parliament
and calling for early elections, which was disobeyed by the
pro-governmental majority.
The President claimed the government was usurping power whereas the
parliamentary
majority accused Yushchenko of violating the constitution.
The President reacted to a number of defections from opposition MPs to the
governing
coalition, although a majority of experts say his interpretation of the
law, which stipulates
parliamentary mandates as being binding, was dubious.
However legal experts also point out the parliament should have complied
with the
Presidential decree and only then file an appeal with the country's
Constitutional Court, to
whom the final word belongs.
European countries have also expressed concern regarding the ongoing
crisis. Last week's
resolution by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)
called for a legal
and constitutional solution to the deadlock. The resolution also said
binding mandates,
favoured by Yushchenko, are inadmissible in a democratic country.
Yushchenko has recently announced his readiness to temporarily suspend the
decree
dissolving parliament in exchange for political concessions by the ruling
parties and the
government.
The main demand by the President remains an early election. Yushchenko
would allow the
parliament to continue functioning so as to amend laws and prepare fresh
elections, and
he also proposed the setting up of a commission that would improve the
constitution and
then subject the changes to referendum.
Both sides could reach an agreement before the top court expresses its
view. Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovich, leader of the ruling Party of the Regions, has
warned of a
looming economic crisis but said he could agree to an early election if
held simultaneously
with a Presidential vote.
Opinion polls consistently show a fresh election, whose date remains
uncertain, would
probably not bring considerable changes in the balance of forces in
parliament, and it
would give Yanukovich the chance to renew his legitimacy in the eyes of
voters.
But radical opposition leader Yuliya Timoshenko is confident she will at
least increase her
share of power in the legislative branch, at the expense of the more
moderate Our Ukraine
Party of President Yushchenko. For the latter, a presidential vote could
also prove
catastrophic in view of his very low approval rate.
The President and the main parties represented in parliament have vowed to
respect the
Court's ruling, with the exception of Timoshenko who claims the court is
"corrupt",
"biased" and "illegitimate". Timoshenko announced that regardless of the
court's ruling her
MPs would renounce their seats thus making the parliament "illegitimate".
Yet some of Timoshenko's MPs, such as former deputy prime minister Mykola
Tomenko,
have criticised her methods and oppose the early election, warning that
the opposition's
electorate is too indifferent and disillusioned.
There are also suspicions that the opposition, not confident the
Constitutional Court will
agree with the constitutionality of the presidential decree, is
deliberately delaying
proceedings with a view on holding early elections before the court
delivers its ruling.
Government officials have complained of several opposition demonstrators
blocking the
entrance to the court's headquarters in an attempt to disrupt procedures,
and later an MP
loyal to Timoshenko filed an accusation of bribery against a judge in the
Constitutional
Court.
Ukraine's Prosecutor-General Office has dismissed the accusations as
lacking any objective
evidence, simultaneously launching a criminal investigation into a
possible attempt to
interfere with the judge's work.
Threats of prosecution and accusations of pressure and bribery have been
levelled by all
sides, and some Constitutional Court judges have even asked for
protection.
The political rivals have however dismissed the possibility of resorting
to violence, though
polls indicate one third of Ukrainians fears this could be the outcome of
the political
confrontation.
Western countries and Russia have kept more distance than in late 2004,
when
Yushchenko was swept to power following a popular protest against vote
rigging.
Observers say Yanukovich, the loser of the 2004 "orange revolution", as it
came to be
known, has been clearly taking a more pro-Western stance since then,
calling for
membership of the European Union (EU).
However the opposition, and especially Timoshenko, insist Yanukovich is a
figure of the
previous regime, a pro-Russian who endangers the country's independence.
The neutrality of Western European countries in regard to the ongoing
Ukrainian crisis
would however attest to the Prime Minister's increased acceptance among
Western circles.
"The EU and the U.S. don't want to speak openly in favour of any of the
sides involved,"
Aleksey Tolpygo, an analyst at the Kiev Centre of Political Studies and
Conflictology told
IPS.
"The experience of 2004 and the following disillusionment have not been
forgotten, and
the EU has understood Yanukovich is not so demanding towards them."
Tolpygo thinks also Russia learnt from the "orange revolution", when its
intervention
precipitated support for pro-Western forces among Ukrainians. Russia has
so far refused
to interfere in the present crisis, though its experts and deputies have
made statements
condemning the behaviour of Ukraine's oppositionists.
"Russia, just like the EU, prefers not to get too involved in this
situation," the analyst told
IPS.
Yanukovich has been consistently in favour of international mediation by
Western
countries, but the President has so far disagreed, calling for an
exhaustion of all possible
domestic solutions. (END/2007)
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