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TURKEY: Poll Win a Setback for AKP
By Hilmi Toros
ISTANBUL, Apr 4, 2009 (IPS) - Turkey's ruling party won the local elections last week, but the reduced
majority comes as indicator that its popularity may be in decline.
The local elections were contested on national issues, and seen as a vote of
confidence in the government. The ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP), in power since 2002, polled 40 percent of the vote, down from 42
percent in local elections in 2004 and a high of 47 percent in the
parliamentary contest in 2007.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his "disappointment" with
the results, and said "lessons will be drawn" from the setback. The AKP had
expected to go over the 50 percent mark. The ruling party lost 16 mayoral
seats.
"This could be the beginning of AKP sliding downward," Sanem Argun, an
analyst of Turkish politics told IPS. "It will liven up politics, and other parties
will see themselves as viable alternatives to AKP."
The ruling party appears to have underestimated the impact of the global
economic crisis on Turkey, and the sentiment of Kurds, close to a fifth of the
electorate.
Party losses came in industrial areas bearing the brunt of job losses with
unemployment going up from single digit level to 13 percent. Car production
collapsed by over 60 percent in the first two months of the year. A poll in the
daily Haber Turk on the eve of the elections showed that 75 percent of
university graduates were unable to find jobs, with half saying they would
emigrate if given the chance.
The government first claimed that the Turkish economy was strong enough
to withstand the impact of the global crisis, and only recently did it take
measures such as reducing value added tax on car sales. The government
also dragged its negotiations for a loan of up to 25 billion dollars from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), claiming it was not that urgent, while
economists had urged a speedy infusion of cash.
In the Kurdish populated south-east and east of the country, AKP
campaigned on a platform of its record of service, spurning the "ethnic"
politics of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP). The pro-Kurdish
party, pressing for "democratic autonomy", captured 5 percent of the vote
but wrested major seats from AKP in Van and in Siirt, the former
parliamentary district of Erdogan. DTP candidate Osman Baydemir received
65 percent of votes in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the south-east, despite
a determined AKP campaign.
As a gesture to the Kurdish population, the government had begun a 24-
hour channel in Kurdish in January - a demand considered critical for human
rights by the European Union as Turkey aspires to join the EU as its first
Muslim nation.
In its slippage, AKP may have been paying the price also for its sudden and
phenomenal success in the general election in 2007. That is now seen as a
one-off triumph and as the electorate's emotional reaction in a snap election
called when the military opposed the party's candidate for president, then
foreign minister Abdullah Gul. The elections then gave a resounding victory
to AKP, and Parliament eventually elected Gul as Turkey's first president with
an Islamist past.
The burning issue of secularist versus Islamist that had dominated Turkish
politics for the past few years was conspicuously absent from the campaign
in these local elections.
The local election campaign was marred by scattered violence, with eight
people killed in shootouts by rival candidates and their supporters. Losing
candidates in Ankara and Istanbul asked for investigation into reports of
irregularities in ballot counting.
The left-of-centre Peoples Republic Party (CHP) upped its tally by 5 points to
28 percent, while the resurgent rightist National Movement Party (MHP) rode
the recent wave of nationalist fervour to reach 15 percent, for a jump of six
points. Polling was held in 81 provinces for an electorate of about 40 million.
(END)
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