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MIDEAST: Deal on Gaza Makes Headway
Analysis by Jerrold Kessel and Pierre Klochendler
JERUSALEM, Jun 28, 2009 (IPS) - Under a complex twin-pronged initiative from the U.S. and Egypt, Israel's hard-
line government is moving towards backtracking on two major planks of its
policy in the occupied territories - resisting demands for a blanket freeze on all
settlement building in the West Bank, and acquiescing in the end of its tight
siege of the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
As a result, several pieces in an elaborate diplomatic puzzle that seeks to
resolve both a long stand-off in Israeli-Palestinian relations and a three-year
showdown in Palestinian-Palestinian relations since Hamas won the
Palestinian elections, are beginning to fall into place.
Even a full-fledged truce between Israel and Hamas, something that has
proven elusive since the end of the 22-day Gaza war last January, suddenly
seems not beyond the realm of the possible.
It is the Administration of U.S. President Barack Obama that generated the
initial momentum and continues to provide much of the impetus for what
could be a dramatic shift in the constellation of forces in the Israeli-
Palestinian equation. But it is Egypt which is proving to be the linchpin -
especially in regard to fostering a dramatic change within Palestinian
domestic politics that would allow Hamas and the Fatah-controlled
Palestinian Authority to work towards ending their power struggle.
Another round of talks between Fatah and Hamas representatives was getting
under way in Cairo on Sunday with Egyptian mediators trying to convince the
two sides to accept a reconciliation agreement that could yield a new
Palestinian governing authority in Gaza.
The Egyptians, under their national intelligence chief, General Omar Suleiman
and his deputy, Muhammad Ibrahim, are turning up the heat. They have
designated Jul. 7 as a deadline, warning that if Fatah (represented by former
prime minister Ahmad Qureia) and Hamas (headed by politburo deputy chief,
Mussa Abu Marzouk) continue to remain at loggerheads, Cairo would
withdraw its mediation.
According to reliable Palestinian and Israeli sources, key elements in the
Egyptian proposal include the following: Hamas would agree to relinquish
some of its control over the Gaza Strip; that would pave the way towards a
ceasefire agreement with Israel; then, the subsequent lifting of the siege of
Gaza through the opening of the border crossings with both Israel and Egypt
would allow the setting up of a committee under Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas charged with administering Gaza.
Collaterally, military and security experts from Egypt and other Arab
countries would be stationed in Gaza to oversee the revamped joint
Palestinian security forces made up jointly of Fatah and Hamas units which
would, inter alia, be responsible for supervising the border crossings on the
Palestinian side.
Finally, new Palestinian elections are mooted for January next year.
The end result, backed actively by the U.S. and the EU, is to see the start of a
process that that will pave the way for renewed negotiations between the
Palestinian Authority and Israel. Egypt, the U.S. and the EU all recognise that
without an internal Palestinian deal, Palestinian-Israeli talks would be futile.
Up until now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared himself
ready to resume talks with the PA "today". But, bound as he is to the
destruction of Hamas by coalition agreements with the ultra-nationalist flank
of his government, Netanyahu has ruled out any contacts with the Palestinians
were Hamas to be included in any shape or form with the PA. The PA, on the
other hand, balks at any resumption of talks with Israel so long as Israel does
not abide by the U.S. demand on settlements.
Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak, for his part, is weighing in with a
tantalising inducement to Israel - offering gradual normalising of relations
between the pro-peace Arab states and Israel, even in advance of any sort of
agreement towards peace with the Palestinians, but on the proviso that Israel
makes a move on settlements first.
During his trip to Europe last week, Netanyahu discovered that even Israel's
"best friends", France and Italy, insist on such a freeze. This was underlined
again on Friday when the foreign ministers of the Quartet (the U.S., EU,
Russia and the UN), meeting in Trieste in Italy, issued an identical demand.
Faced with such concerted pressure, Netanyahu is dispatching his Defence
Minister - and currently closest political ally - Ehud Barak to Washington
Monday with a counter-offer. Reportedly, Netanyahu may even go so far as to
agree to a total three-month hiatus in settlement building to sway the
Administration from its unyielding position.
It looks as if Netanyahu, despite his strong ideological commitment to the
settlement enterprise, may be coming round to recognise that he can ill-
afford to stand pat in face of this joint U.S.-Egyptian pincer strategy.
Whether, though, there is indeed a positive denouement in this effort to
produce a more hopeful shape to Palestinian-Israeli, and Palestinian-
Palestinian relations, may well be seen in a parallel development on a
separate front: a prisoner exchange involving the abducted Israeli corporal
Gilad Shalit for hundreds of Hamas and other Palestinian prisoners long held
by Israel.
After three years of fruitless negotiations, a sudden flurry of reports suggests
that a deal may not be far in the offing. Although denied by both Israel and
Hamas, the reports persist. Pointedly, Barak said before departing for
Washington that reports about an "imminent" Shalit deal are "harmful". He did
not, however, rule out the reports.
Such a deal would be a salutary shot in the arm for the current elaborate
efforts to move the region from simmering confrontation to an atmosphere
conducive to possible progress on the diplomatic front, say Israeli officials.
The message is apparently not lost on either side.
For Israel, beyond the prisoner exchange and despite its abhorrence of
Hamas, there is a decided interest in seeing this Egyptian-U.S. initiative for an
internal Palestinian deal succeed. After all, say Israeli analysts, it would be
hard for Israel to veto the establishment of a joint committee under
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Gaza - especially if the
alternative is to leave Hamas exclusively in control of Gaza.
Similarly for Hamas, after the battering which it sustained during the Israeli
assault, it would find it hard to turn its back on what could be an opportunity
to rebuild Gaza, a process that has so far been stymied by the Israeli siege to
the acute suffering that continues to afflict the Gaza population.
(END)
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