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GREECE: New Leaders May Not Bring New Answers
By Apostolis Fotiadis
ATHENS, Sep 24, 2009 (IPS) - The call for snap elections on Oct 2, about two years earlier than the end of the
government's mandate surprised no one in Greece. They were in fact overdue
given the political bankruptcy of the government of the right-wing party New
Democracy (ND).
Involvement of high ranking government members in scandals over the last
five years, and the government's inability to deal with the consequences of
recession have not only alienated a big part of the electorate but also
businessmen.
Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis has argued that he was forced by the
opposition Panhellenic Socialist Party (Pasok) to call the elections Oct 4
because of its refusal to renew the mandate of President Karolos Papoulias.
This is procedurally correct, but it is really the collapse of the government's
economic policy that forced him to look for a way out.
The ND had an unstable majority of just one MP, with 151 MPs in a parliament
of 300, and required Pasok support to renew the mandate of Papoulias due in
March. Failure to elect the government’s candidate would amount to losing a
confidence vote, and lead to dissolution of parliament.
Whoever wins the election will not necessarily have a quieter run. The worst
consequences of recession lie ahead. The annual report of The Employment
Institute of the General Union of Greek Workers (GSEE) says real
unemployment will reach 17.3 percent next year. An estimated 700,000
people will be jobless by then in a nation of 10 million. The report says more
than two million people will be below poverty limits.
Public dept that is now up to 90.1 percent of GDP is expected to cross 100
percent at the end of this year. The deficit is spinning out of control, and
international creditors are threatening to devalue Greece in international
markets, making the money it borrows through them expensive. Marko
Mrsnik, a specialist on Greece with the ratings agency Standard & Poor's has
warned that devaluation is imminent if the country does not reform its public
security system soon.
Joaquin Almunia, European Union commisioner for economic and monetary
affairs, has told both big parties that pre-election promises should not ignore
the obligations of Greece under the Lisbon Treaty, which requires strict
financial regulation of member states of the Euro zone.
While Almunia and Mrsnik's advocacy of economic liberalisation conflicts with
the implicit call for social-friendly policies in GSEE's report, they all confirm
the nightmarish scenario that the dynamic of the old economic development
model is now exhausted. This was based on cheap international credit,
European structural funds, high consumption, and high values for real estate.
Pasok and ND are now both avoiding a polarisation of their pre-election
campaigns. "This is visible in the milder tactics employed by both big
parties," Maria Surmopoulou, analyst at the Kapa Research Communication
Company told IPS.
"The short pre-election campaign combined with a psychologically distressed
electorate has created a volatile environment limiting the campaigning tools
in the hands of parties," Surmopoulou said.
"From what we have seen so far ND has opted to appeal with rational
arguments to the electorate, similarly Pasok seems to be avoiding negative
comments and advertisement, understandable if someone thinks that
following long-term social turbulence the electorate is so sensitive that a
negative pre-election campaign could backfire dangerously and produce very
negative results."
The crucial factor, says Surmopoulou, is the large number of uncertain
voters, up to 26.1 percent according to her research.
The issue of migration, exploited both by ND and Pasok over the last few
months, has been surprisingly absent from pre-election discourse. "This has
to do with the fear of alienating voters who remain sensitive on the issue,"
Afroditi Al-Saleh, a specialist on migration and refugee issues told IPS.
"Both ND and Pasok attract very different voters; ND would not risk leaving
some of the most rightist voters unsatisfied if it touched on the issue without
becoming too harsh, and Pasok prefers to ignore it, aware that winning a
majority depends on right-wing voters who abandon ND but are not
sympathetic to pro-migrant opinions."
Opinion polls so far present an uncertain situation, but with Pasok increasing
its chances of getting a majority.
The Greek Communist Party, which rehabilitated Stalin and his legacy at its
last summit, is expected again to win its usual 7 to 8 percent, and remain the
third force.
The extreme right Popular Orthodox Alarm (LAOS) has been climbing in the
polls, and it is preparing to repeat its triumph after it got 7.14 percent of the
vote, which translates into 366,615 votes, in the European elections last June.
Running on a 'cult of personality' focusing on its leader Giorgos Karatzaferis,
the party has engaged in a display of populist electioneering, signing in
showbiz stars, ex-footballers, a former head of secret services, and
frustrated right-wing politicians. (END)
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