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POLITICS: China, Burma Bust Up Over Border Unrest
Analysis by Larry Jagan
BANGKOK, Sep 30 (IPS) - The border dispute between two close allies, China and Burma, has now been
compounded by concerns over the junta’s future relations with the United
States.
The past few weeks have seen a flurry of diplomatic activity between the two
states, with Beijing even issuing some unusually forthright criticism of its
South-east Asian neighbour.
Unrest on their common border led to a mass exodus of more than 30,000
Chinese refugees in late August, and fears of a renewed civil war in the area
have alarmed Beijing. Its officials are also now worried by the Burmese
military regime’s interest in developing closer ties with the U.S., which has
strong sanctions in place against the junta.
"Beijing has been taken aback by the Burmese junta’s cavalier approach to
their normally strong relationship," said Win Min, a Burmese academic based
at Chiang Mai University. "But it is likely to prove to be a hiccup rather than a
major shift in relations."
Last weekend a government-controlled provincial television channel, based
in Kunming – the capital of Yunnan province which borders northern Burma -
- broadcast a Chinese government announcement advising all Chinese
citizens in eastern Burma to return home quickly.
This came on the heels of a formal complaint from China to Burma days
earlier over the way Chinese citizens living in a border region had been
treated during recent clashes between an ethnic militia and Burmese in
August.
In statement issued last week, China's Foreign Ministry said the recent
conflict with the Kokang, in a northeastern Burmese region bordering China,
had "harmed the rights and interests of Chinese citizens living there." The
Burmese government should make sure similar incidents do not happen
again, the statement added.
Burma insists that peace has been restored to the area in question, and most
of the refugees who fled to China had returned. But there are still thousands
seeking refuge across the border, not just from the Kokang areas, according
to residents living in China along the border with Burma.
Right along the border, from the Kachin areas in the east to the Shan areas in
the west, people have fled into China for fear of renewed fighting between
other ethnic rebel groups, especially the Kachin and the Wa, two of Burma’s
larger armed groups, according to Indian entrepreneurs who travel along this
area doing business.
"Everyone fears that the 20-year-old ceasefire agreements have been torn up
by the Burmese generals, and a return to fighting is imminent," said a Kachin
student living in the Chinese border town of Ruili.
"At the moment, it does not look as though the Burmese army is about to
attack any of the other ethnic rebel groups that have ceasefire agreements,
though there is a lot of posturing going on," said Win Min. "There is no doubt
that the regime means to have all the ethnic rebel armies disarm before next
year’s elections and become part of the border guards under the control of
the Burmese army."
Earlier this year the junta sought the assistance of the former intelligence
chief and prime minister, General Khin Nyunt – who was deposed in Oct.
2004 and is now under house arrest in Rangoon – to help negotiate with
these rebels groups, especially the Wa.
Khin Nyunt had masterminded these ceasefire agreements some 20 years
ago, and was still trusted by many of the ethnic leaders. He accepted the
junta’s request on condition that his men — some 300 military intelligence
officers who were jailed in the aftermath of Khin Nyunt’s fall— be freed. The
government refused to accept his condition, and turned to the Chinese – who
have extremely close relations with the key ethnic groups along the border —
the Kachin, Kokang and the Wa. The Chinese reluctance to help angered the
Burmese junta’s leaders.
It is now increasingly evident that a significant rift exists between the two
countries that could have crucial implications for other countries in the
region. It is also likely to impact any approach that the international
community may take to encourage the Burmese military regime to introduce
real political change.
The implications of this growing divergence could also have significant affects
on the border region, as most of the ethnic groups — especially the Kachin,
Kokang and Wa — in this area have ceasefire agreements with the Burmese
junta. They also have traditionally close ties with the Chinese authorities.
Economically and culturally, the area is certainly closer to China than the
Burmese regime.
Thousands of Chinese businessmen and workers have migrated into northern
Shan state over the last decade seeking employment and economic
opportunities. Many of these ethnic leaders go to Chinese hospital across the
border for medical treatment and send their children to school in China. The
Chinese language and even the Chinese currency — the renminbi — is used
throughout the Kokang and Wa areas in northern Shan state.
Anything which forces Beijing to choose between their ethnic brothers inside
Burma — the Kokang are ethnically Chinese and the Wa, a Chinese ethnic
minority — and the central government will cause the capital immense
problems. In the end, it will bring into sharp focus the real nature of the
Burma-China axis.
But Beijing is now more worried about Burma’s longer-term allegiance. The
junta has been China’s key ally and strategic partner in South-east Asia in
the past few years. So the current overtures between Washington and Burma
have dismayed the Chinese leaders, who remain suspicious of the U.S.
interest in re-engaging with the region and increasing its influence. Beijing
sees the region as its backyard, and any competition for influence is far from
welcome.
Recently Cambodia and Thailand have moved closer to the US, increasing
China’s strategic concerns. Now its rock-solid ally, evidently hoping for
better relations with the West, has begun to flirt with Washington.
"China will react with measured nervousness to this unwelcome
encroachment into Burma," Justin Wintle, a British expert on Burma and
biographer of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, told IPS.
Beijing’s current concerns stem from the unstable basis of their bilateral
relationship. "We are not ‘real’ friends – as (we are) with Thailand, for
example," said a senior Chinese government official who spoke to IPS on
condition of anonymity. "It’s a Machiavellian relationship: we are in it for what
we can get out of it, and they are also in it, for what they can get out of it," he
said.
Thus, it is a relationship that could shift easily, said Chinese diplomats who
spoke with IPS. "But it is not likely to become antagonistic anytime soon," said
Win Min. "Burma is far too economically dependent on China for the
government to really consider ditching Beijing as its main ally."
More than 90 percent of direct foreign investment in Burma last year was
Chinese. While the western-led sanctions remain in place, that is unlikely to
change for some time. The sanctions, of course, now more than ever have
rankled with the regime.
"Sanctions are being employed as a political tool against Myanmar (as Burma
is official called), and we consider them unjust," the Burmese prime minister,
General Thein Sein, told the U.N. General Assembly in New York late this
month.
Undoubtedly Burma’s interest in a dialogue with the U.S. is motivated by the
regime’s main concerns — to have sanctions lifted, for international
humanitarian and development assistance to flow into the country, and to
attract foreign investment.
"Though generals are certainly unhappy about being too dependent on one
supporter, and will be trying to balance Chinese influence with better
relations with the U.S. as well as other countries — like ASEAN (member
states) and India, they will not be looking to cut the umbilical cord with China
in the near future," said Win Min.
China will now watch with growing concern any further U.S. overtures to
Burma. But in the end it is Burma that may hold the upper hand. China’s
economic, trade and military involvement in Burma gives the junta the upper
hand rather than making them more subservient to Beijing. The issue now is
how far the junta leaders will go in flexing their muscles.
(END/2009)
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