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PHILIPPINES: Amid Disasters’ Rubble, Accusations Hound President
Analysis by Stephen de Tarczynski
MANILA, Oct 29 (IPS) - Even in the wake of the tropical storms that lashed the northern parts of the
Philippines recently, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo took time out to visit
her home province.
Arroyo has gone to Pampanga in central Luzon—one of the country’s three
island groups—at least 30 times during her presidency. Her administration
has justified her frequent visits by saying she was there to inspect numerous
government projects, among other reasons.
Despite Pampanga escaping relatively unscathed from the massive
destruction wrought by tropical storms Ondoy—known internationally as
Ketsana—and Pepeng, Arroyo maintained her interest in the province at the
height of the crisis.
She went to northern Pampanga in late September to attend the wakes of
people killed by a landslide caused by Ondoy’s torrential rains. There she
handed out cash and food parcels to residents.
She also found time to tour several villages in the province on Oct.23 before
flying to Thailand to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
summit, which opened on the same day.
This focus on Pampanga has led to persistent rumors that Arroyo—who is
constitutionally required to step down from the presidency following the
elections, as Philippine presidents are limited to one six-year term in office—
is preparing to run as a congressional representative of Pampanga’s second
district if only to avoid prosecution when her presidential term ends next
year. The seat is currently held by her son, Juan Miguel "Mikey" Arroyo.
Winning a seat in the House of Representatives would likely place the
president in a better position to avoid or battle the raft of legal concerns that
Arroyo and her inner circle are anticipated to face following the elections.
"There are lots of cases that could be filed against the [Macapagal-Arroyo]
family and even against the presidency," says Patrick Patiño, chairman of the
board of trustees at the Institute for Popular Democracy (IPD), a Manila-
based research and advocacy organisation.
Potential cases that Arroyo, who came to power in 2001 after the ousting of
Joseph Estrada, could face include charges relating to her 2004 election
victory—widely seen here as fraudulent—as well as the alleged misuse of
budget funds and even human rights abuses.
Additionally, Arroyo’s husband Jose Miguel "Mike" Macapagal-Arroyo has
been the target of numerous corruption claims, as have other family
members, including son Mikey. They would also be likely targets of
prosecution in the post-election period.
But if Arroyo is to avoid the experience of her predecessor, then she may
require the victory of an empathetic presidential candidate. Estrada was tried
and convicted for plunder following his ignominious departure from office,
although he was pardoned by Arroyo and released from detention in 2007.
However, recent results from electoral polls show that Senator Benigno
"Noynoy" Aquino III of the opposition Liberal Party is now the voters’
favourite candidate.
Noynoy announced his entry into the presidential race following the death on
Aug.1 of his mother, Corazon "Cory" Aquino, the charismatic former
president who came to office with the People Power Revolution of 1986.
Cory was reluctantly thrust to the forefront of the opposition to then-
President Ferdinand Marcos—who turned into a virtual dictator after he
imposed martial law and whose reign was marred by widespread corruption,
political repression and human rights violations—in 1983 as a replacement
for her husband, Benigno Aquino Jr., who was assassinated at Manila’s
international airport upon his return to the Philippines from exile in the
United States.
The legacy of the restoration of democracy that occurred under the
presidency of Cory Aquino, as well as her husband’s popularity, has been
transferred to Noynoy, says Alberto Lim, executive director of the Makati
Business Club, an independent business organisation composed of senior
executives from the country’s largest enterprises.
Although Noynoy "does not have a brilliant record as a legislator, [with] no
major laws passed," Lim argues that the senator’s honesty, integrity and
down-to-earth character—a "180-degree shift" from the perceptions of
Arroyo, he adds—also explain his popularity.
Noynoy "has no record of corruption. He’s still a very simple guy, he wears
simple clothes and isn’t flashy," Lim says.
Percival Cendana, chairperson of the Akbayan Citizens’ Action Party, a
Congressional party-list organisation, said the "Noynoy euphoria represents
a very real threat to the Arroyo administration because the electoral
landscape has been radically altered."
Cory’s son "has emerged as the alternative to President Arroyo because he
represents everything that she is not," says Cendana.
While a Noynoy victory would likely lead to the investigation and possible
prosecution of Arroyo and those surrounding her, there has also been
speculation on the political grapevine here that the current president and her
cohorts may seek dubious means by which to either hold on to power or to
influence the election’s outcome in order to avoid prosecution.
One possible way in which Arroyo could remain in power is by implementing
either martial law—which many Filipinos experienced under Marcos—or a
state of emergency so as to delay or even cancel the 2010 vote.
The Malacañang Palace, the seat of the presidency, has denied this persistent
accusation, saying there is no reason to impose martial law in the lead-up to
the elections. "Let us not go back to the dark days of martial law," said
presidential spokesman Gary Olivar on Sept. 20, the eve of the 37th
anniversary of the declaration of martial law by Marcos.
Still, concerns that the administration could do exactly that have lingered.
Ramon Casiple, executive director of the non-government Institute for
Political and Electoral Reform, says that the possibility of martial law or a
state of emergency being declared "exists from today until the end of her
term. That is June 30, 2010." However, he believes that the likelihood of such
a declaration has decreased over the past few months.
"One of the reasons for this is that there is already a strong public sentiment
against it…the other is that the armed forces itself is political, and it’s also
monitoring the public sentiment," explains Casiple.
Although the powerful Armed Forces of the Philippines—whose support
would be critical if martial law was to be declared—also appears to be
backing the electoral process, the IPD’s Patiño warns Filipinos to beware.
"The Arroyo administration is so wily, so smart politically, that they could
think of anything," he says.
(END/2009)
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