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POLITICS: U.S. Mission to Burma Heralds Obama’s New Diplomatic Tack
By Marwaan Macan-Markar
BANGKOK, Oct 31 (IPS) - An upcoming mission by senior United States government officials to military-
ruled Burma points to Washington’s commitment that engaging with oppressive
regimes—than spurning them—is the way forward for change.
The two-day visit by Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asian
and Pacific affairs, and Scot Marciel, deputy assistant secretary, is being seen
as a clear sign of the new diplomatic policy U.S. President Barak Obama wants
to unveil in the South-east Asian nation, which is also called Myanmar.
This U.S. mission, from Nov. 3 to 4, marks a break from the tough line that
the former U.S. administration, under George W. Bush, pursued. Campbell
and Marciel, furthermore, will be the highest-ranking U.S. officials visiting
Burma after 14 years. The last to do so, in 1995, was Madeline Albright, then
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
The reactions among Burmese to the Obama administration’s policy shift are
mixed. It stems from years of enduring a junta that has refused to cave in to
outside pressure and chosen to isolate the country from world affairs.
Burma’s impoverished millions have also had to endure decades of life under
the iron grip of a secretive and paranoid regime that has fattened itself off
the country’s immense natural resources, from natural gas to rubies.
"Generally, the people inside Burma, the more politically active, are
encouraged by the policy shift of the Obama administration," said Aung
Naing Oo, a Burmese political analyst living in exile in Thailand. "But the
Burmese political activists in exile are not sure; they are cautiously
optimistic."
This mission, for one, will be a "learning curve" for both parties, he told IPS.
"The Americans need to understand the Burmese military and how they
operate, and the military regime will have to understand where the Americans
are coming from."
How Burma’s strongman, Senior General Than Shwe, treats the U.S. visitors,
and who in the military and political chain of command they meet, will serve
as pointers of this diplomatic adventure. Than Shwe, after all, is notorious for
coughing up excuses to avoid foreign visitors on a whim. U.N. Secretary-
General Ban Ki-moon is among those deprived of the welcome mat.
"The test to measure how successful Campbell’s visit is is to see if he gets a
meeting with Gen. Than Shwe," said Win Min, a Burmese national security
expert lecturing at a Payap University in northern Thailand. "He is known to
avoid foreign visitors if it is not to his advantage."
But there are signs coming from within the military government that
"welcome the change in U.S. policy," Win Min revealed during an interview.
"They see this new approach as an opportunity to work with the Obama
administration in order to improve Burma’s image within the international
community."
Pressure is also growing on Campbell for a meeting with the National League
for Democracy (NLD), Burma’s beleaguered opposition party, in the latter’s
run-down headquarters in Rangoon, the former capital. "This will be more
safe for the NLD leaders to talk freely and without fear of their views being
secretly recorded than if the meeting was held in a government guesthouse,"
said a source close to the party on the condition of anonymity.
According to U.S. media reports, Campbell and Marciel are due to meet NLD
leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent over 14 of the last 20 years under
house arrest. The Nobel Peace laureate, who is cut away from her party
supporters, is reported to have told her lawyer that "she is keenly monitoring
Mr. Campbell’s upcoming visit and is interested in when he will come and
what he will do in Burma," according to a report in ‘The Irrawaddy’, a
magazine produced by Burmese journalists living in exile in Thailand.
Washington’s approach towards a country that suffers from a lack of human
rights, the rule of law and democracy was spelled out recently by a ranking
member of the U.S. State Department to Burmese political activists. "The U.S.
official said that they would use pressure to coax the Burmese regime to
come out of isolation," a participant at that closed-door meeting in Thailand
told IPS. "It will be different from the hardline pressure before."
"They are very realistic about how progress should be measured," the
participant added. "They know success will not come early. They are stressing
patience and the need for a long-term strategy."
Even on the touchy issue of sanctions there are hints of new thinking unlike
previous U.S. administrations, which had backed the imposition of sanctions
since the mid-1990s, and also called for a freeze in new U.S. investments in
the country.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has already gone on the record saying
the sanctions on Burma have not worked in prodding the regime towards
political reform. Clinton’s statements were one among a series that have
been made since she visited Indonesia in February, where she announced
that a "policy review" on Washington’s position towards Burma was needed.
"Clearly, sanctions haven’t worked," she added.
Since then the Obama administration has reached out to the Burmese regime
in a way the former Bush administration did not. In July, Marciel used a
meeting of South-east Asian leaders in Thailand to conduct a 90-minute
dialogue with Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win. And last month, senior U.S.
officials met with senior Burmese officials at the U.N. headquarters in New
York.
"The outcome of this U.S. mission should help to clarify what is really going
on inside Burma and if the junta is serious about change," said Bangkok-
based Zin Linn, information director for the National Coalition Government
for the Union of Burma, the democratically elected government forced into
exile. "But that depends on how many stakeholders they meet, from the junta
and the NLD to leaders of ethnic minorities."
"Without knowing the ground situation, the new Burma policy of the U.S. will
go nowhere," he told IPS. "That was the mistake of the others who tried
before."
(END/2009)
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