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SOUTH-EAST ASIA: Much at Stake for Thai Premier over Cambodia Row
Analysis by Marwaan Macan-Markar
BANGKOK, Nov 13, 2009 (IPS) - Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva faces his toughest foreign policy challenge
as his first year in office draws to a close. At stake is this South-east Asian
kingdom’s standing in a regional bloc.
So far the worsening relationship between Thailand and its eastern neighbour
Cambodia has only produced limited public pressure from government
leaders in the countries that belong to the Association of South-east Asian
Nations (ASEAN).
Such response comes in the wake of Cambodia’s brazen behaviour,
challenging a defining principle of the 10-member regional grouping—where
non-interference in the domestic affairs of a fellow ASEAN member is
considered sacred.
Phnom Penh has done the very opposite by the warm embrace Cambodian
Prime Minister Hun Sen has given to former Thai prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra since Tuesday. Thaksin—whose popular elected government was
ousted in a 2006 military coup and who lives in exile to avoid a two-year jail
term after a Thai court found him guilty in a conflict of interest case—was
welcome by Hun Sen as a very close friend.
On Thursday, Thaksin delivered a speech in Phnom Penh in his capacity as
Hun Sen’s newly appointed economic advisor. The fugitive former premier
has also used his stay in Cambodia to attack the Abhisit government and to
meet scores of his visiting supporters from Thailand.
After initially accusing Cambodia of interfering in Thailand’s domestic affairs,
Bangkok turned the diplomatic heat by recalling its ambassador in Cambodia.
It then revoked an agreement between the two countries to explore oil and
gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand and later declared that all ties between
the two countries will be reviewed.
By the week’s end, Cambodia, which recalled its ambassador in Thailand
following Bangkok’s move, had fuelled more tension. Phnom Penh declared a
senior Thai diplomat in the capital persona non grata and then accused a
Thai national of spying.
The Hun Sen administration has not buckled under pressure from its richer
neighbour in another, more politically significant, area. It pooh-poohed a
request by Bangkok to have Thaksin extradited, saying provocatively in a
letter capitalised in some parts for emphasis that the nemesis of the Abhisit
government had been forced out of power although he had been
"OVERWHELMINGLY and DEMOCRATICALLY elected by the Thai people."
Cambodia’s reference to elections stems from the manner the coalition
government Abhist heads was formed. It emerged after a controversial court
ruling last December that saw the collapse of an elected government allied to
Thaksin. Subsequently Thailand’s powerful military brokered a deal—
including enticing parliamentarians with money—for the new coalition to win
a vote in parliament than be endorsed at a general election.
Hun Sen’s dismissive attitude towards Thailand’s concerns—that Thaksin
would use Cambodia as a launching pad for his political comeback—has only
prompted muted appeals in some ASEAN capitals for a solution through
bilateral means.
It comes as Abhisit raised the tempo on Friday in response to Cambodia’s
spying charges and the expulsion of the Thai diplomat. He told reporters
here that it was aimed to provoke a "violent response" from Bangkok and "the
Thai government didn’t fall for their trick," according to The Nation, an
English-language daily here.
So far Singapore has expressed worry twice, the most recent on Tuesday,
when Foreign Minister George Yeo told journalists that he was concerned and
wanted both parties "to find a way to resolve their problems."
Yet when asked if Cambodia was violating the ASEAN charter by interfering in
a neighbouring country’s affairs, he responded diplomatically: "I don’t want
to comment on that."
A meeting on Thursday night in the city-state between Singaporean Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Indonesian President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono did not have concerns about the Cambodia-Thai diplomatic row
on the agenda. The two leaders "did not discuss the conflict between
Cambodia and Thailand," reports Bernama, Malaysia’s national news agency.
ASEAN—whose members include Brunei, Burma (or Myanmar), Cambodia,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—
has during its 42-year-history religously guarded the principle of non-
interference. Even military-ruled Burma, the bloc’s most troublesome
member, has enjoyed long spells of protection.
The timing of the plummeting relations with Cambodia could not have come
at a worse time for Abhisit, who at 45 years and barely a year in office is
relatively a greenhorn when ranked against some of the other regional
leaders. For this year has the Thai premier as the head of ASEAN, which
began a journey though 2009 to transform itself into becoming a more
cohesive, rules-based regional bloc by 2015.
Abhisit, in fact, used two ASEAN summits hosted in Thailand this year to cut
an image of a modern, forward-looking leader at a time of ASEAN’s
transformation. He used his speeches to express his commitment towards a
democratic culture and human rights. Groundbreaking exchanges between
leaders of civil society and ASEAN leaders at the two summits earned Abhisit
credit from non-governmental groups.
Yet not all ASEAN governments, it seems, are impressed by such a record.
The interaction between ASEAN leaders and civil society representatives that
Abhisit spearheaded remains a sore point.
Bangkok is being faulted for trying to get ahead rather than conforming to an
ASEAN tradition of toeing a common line and sticking to a common message.
"There was agreement before the second ASEAN summit that all governments
will have a say in choosing the civil society representatives, but then just
before the meeting the Thais said their foreign ministry will not get involved
in the selection process," said a South-east Asian diplomat who spoke on
condition of anonymity. "This was embarrassing to the other countries who
stuck to the initial agreement."
Abhisit’s efforts to impress his regional peers about his credentials to be a
voice of democracy and human rights in the region is not going down well
either. "Thailand is not Indonesia, where the current leader has been elected
twice," added the diplomat. "Thailand’s freedom of expression record is also
under scrutiny because of growing Internet censorship."
ASEAN’s lack of a dispute-settling mechanism adds another hurdle. The
traditional ASEAN way of solving disagreements by leaders of the region
shaping a dialogue will not be easy for the bloc’s chair, given Abhisit’s role in
the ongoing dispute.
Little wonder why ASEAN secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan is making a
desperate appeal. "The dispute is no longer an internal affair of Thailand or
Cambodia," the former Thai foreign minister was quoted as having told
reporters in Singapore, according to a report in the ‘Bangkok Post’. "It is a
conflict between two member countries of ASEAN and could affect the
organisation’s plan to become an economic community in the near future."
(END)
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