POLITICS-AZERBAIJAN:
Son Takes the Presidential Path
Analysis by Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW, Aug 4 (IPS) - Ilham Aliyev, son of ailing President Heidar Aliyev was
named prime minister of Azerbaijan Monday. That puts him in line to succeed
his father as president.
That also makes Azerbaijan the first of the ex-Soviet states where succession
to leadership looks set to become a family affair. Azerbaijan borders Russia,
Georgia, Armenia and Iran, and has a population of 7.8 million.
In all 101 of the 125 members in the Azeri parliament backed Ilham Aliyev. His
candidacy was supported by members of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party and
its supporters. Opposition members boycotted the vote.
Constitutional amendments approved by a referendum last year provide for
the prime minister to take over as acting president if the President is
incapacitated, or he resigns. The opposition has condemned the amendments
as a device to catapult Ilham Aliyev to power after Heidar Aliyev.
Heidar Aliyev has been a dominant force even before Azerbaijan gained
independence in 1991. He was KGB chief for Azerbaijan region during the
Soviet era. He was also deputy prime minister of the former Soviet state, and
member of the powerful politburo of the Communist party. Aliyev became
president of Azerbaijan in 1993.
But bad health has periodically raised doubts about his terms in office. He
suffered a heart attack in 1987. He underwent heart bypass surgery in the
United States four years ago. He has been to the U.S. several times since, and
has also been treated in Turkey for health problems. He has been in a Turkish
hospital now for a month.
Aliyev collapsed during a speech being broadcast live on state television on
April 21 this year. He was addressing a 2,000-strong gathering at a military
academy in capital Baku when he suddenly clutched his chest and complained
of pain. Television coverage was immediately cut.
He returned to the rostrum 15 minutes later appearing pale but in control of
himself. But after a few minutes, he collapsed again on to the floor.
Heidar Aliyev and his son are now both candidates of the governing New
Azerbaijan Party in the presidential election due October 15. Ilham Aliyev, a
graduate from the elite diplomatic institute in Moscow, is already vice-president
of the state oil company and deputy head of the ruling party.
The authorities have at the same time stepped up measures designed to
intimidate opposition leaders. The Central Election Commission (CEC) has
rejected the candidacies of several high-profile opposition figures, including
former speaker of parliament Rasul Guliyev and former president Ayaz
Mutalibov.
"Azerbaijain is entering an authoritarian era," Mutalibov said in Moscow in
response to Ilham's nomination. These are not "legitimate proceedings," he told
the Russian Ekho Moskvy Radio in Moscow Monday. Mutalibov has been a
champion of closer relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, but Moscow is
believed to have dropped its support to him in order to preserve relations with
Aliyev and his chosen successor, Ilham.
Among those contesting is Aliyev's arch rival, Isa Gambar, who was speaker of
parliament for a year in 1992 and is now leader of the Musavat party. Gambar,
founder of the Popular Front which sought independence under Soviet rule, was
imprisoned for a month in 1993 but released following international pressure.
He boycotted the last presidential poll in 1998 and was barred from running for
parliament two years later.
Last month, traffic police stopped Gambar's three-car motorcade. Three of his
aides were taken into custody for traffic violations and released only several
days later.
The government's actions are provoking demonstrations. Thousands of
opposition party supporters marched through a Baku suburb last Saturday to
demand free and fair presidential elections. Many demanded information on
Aliyev's health, and expressed anger at prospects of his son taking over.
Political transition looms in Azerbaijan at a time when it is playing a "big
game" between the United States and Russia over energy riches from the
Caspian Sea. Aliyev has strengthened ties with the United States while
managing friendly relations with Moscow.
Moscow had been wary of Azerbaijan's perceived intention to build closer ties
with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). But a détente has emerged
since last year.
Russia and Azerbaijan signed an agreement in September last year to divide
their rights to Caspian oil and gas. The agreement was of great significance to
Azerbaijan, which has based its economic strategy on oil and gas. (END/2003)
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