Opportunity Lurks under Crisis of Troubled Nation

Analysis - By Feizal Samath

COLOMBO, Nov 13 (IPS) - Though much of the attention around Sri Lanka's political crisis centres around the instability it has caused, the current standoff could actually result in firmer cohabitation between the feuding camps of President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe -- and give a boost to peace talks.

On Nov. 4, Kumaratunga triggered a political uproar by wresting control of three key ministries from the ruling United National Party and dismissing parliament.

She accused Wickremesinghe's ruling party of giving too many concessions to the Tamil Tiger rebels, with whom Colombo has been holding peace talks since September 2002, although these have been suspended since April.

Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe met on Wednesday, but made no decisions. A joint statement briefly said the meeting was friendly and cordial and both leaders agreed to meet again next week. To many, that was a signal that the ice had been broken and hostilities had ended - at least for the time being.

Meantime, efforts are underway to make sure that the peace talks hold. Norwegian peace envoys Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen and peace envoy Erik Solheim met Tamil Tiger leaders on Thursday.

LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran told the Norwegian peace envoys that "the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will remain committed to the peace process and to the ceasefire agreement with Colombo", the pro-rebel Tamilnet website said.

Helgessen told journalists after his meeting that the Tigers felt they needed clarity about who was in charge of the peace process.

S Thamilselvan, political head of the LTTE, was reported as saying that Prabhakaran ''told the Norwegians that there should be political stability... for the peace talks to continue".

Earlier, government spokesman Prof Gamini Lakshman Peiris warned that the peace process had been "damaged" by Kumaratunga's takeover of the ministries of defence, interior (police) and the media.

So far, despite their animosity towards Kumaratunga; the Tigers have not pulled out. The ceasefire in fact won renewed support from the president. Despite uncertainty, there has not been any blood on the streets or public rallies by the UNP or Kumaratunga's opposition People's Alliance (PA) demanding elections or attacking their respective leaders.

In fact, the crisis may well have given a glimpse of the consequences of a political failure at this point that would have undercut the whole peace process - and thus generated a groundswell of support from Sri Lankans relieved by the absence of war after 20 years of conflict.

Many now want the feuding blocs of the president and prime minister to learn to live with each other. For instance, there have been growing calls from the business community, professional groups and civil society who, while expressing disappointment over the president's moves, urged both leaders to work together.

The 'Sunday Times' newspaper, in a telephone poll of 150 leading members of the business community, said more than 80 percent of the respondents, while disagreeing with Kumaratunga's moves, agreed that both leaders should come together for peace.

Despite the din of political conflict and uncertainty, some now say that opportunity lies in this crisis too.

Business leaders, who declined to be named, said the camps of Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe had overcome the first major political clash without seriously jeopardising the peace process or the ceasefire.

"That in itself says a lot about the level of restraint by both leaders. This could be a good foundation for cohabitation to work for the sake of peace," said the chairman of a top Colombo conglomerate.

Kumaratunga, elected separately in 2000, has wide powers under the constitution and can hold any cabinet portfolio but chose not to - giving Wickemesinghe's the right to select the cabinet in December 2001 when his party won parliamentary polls.

Kethesh Loganathan, director of the Peace and Conflict Unit at the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), a private think tank, said the ruling party should seriously consider Kumaratunga's offer of a national government, whatever her (president's) motives are.

He said there is a need for cohabitation as well as a broad consensus with other political parties for the peace process to work. In truth, Loganathan said, the peace process should not be entrusted to one individual - whether it is the president or the prime minister - for it to take deeper root.

Kumaratunga at the weekend broached the formation of a national government with political parties represented in parliament -- including Wickremesinghe's ruling party -- and invited him and others for talks on this issue.

Jehan Perera, media and research director at the National Peace Council (NPC), said the fact that both sides met Wednesday is a positive move.

Much more encouraging, he said, was the carefully worded statement afterwards that was not intended to offend either party. "Both sides showed restraint and this gives us hope that the peace process would continue."

Last week's political crisis came a few days after the Tiger rebels unveiled proposals on the formation of an interim administration in the north-east, where majority of the Tamils live.

The rebels said they want to lead an Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA) with autonomous powers - if necessary outside the constitution - to rule the north-east for five years. Elections would then be held afterwards.

Much as Kumaratunga is to blame for removing ministers from key positions, proroguing parliament and deciding to invoke a state of emergency and abandoning it later, Wickremesinghe cannot entirely be let off the hook, some say.

In retrospect, his government did not involve the president as much as it should have in the peace process and what she did was not unexpected with the exception that it was poorly timed -- while he was away, they said.

Wickremesinghe earlier turned down a request from Kumaratunga to include her nominee in the government's negotiating team for peace talks, but this latest crisis may yet provide space for an opposition representative.

Indeed, at Wednesday's meeting between Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe, there was speculation that the president had offered to create a post of deputy defence minister for former defence minister Tilak Marapana in a power-sharing formula.

Earlier Wickremesinghe offered to hand over the peace process and negotiations to the president, saying the defence minister in charge of the military and the peace process was entwined and had to be handled by one party.

Kumaratunga did not respond and instead offered to set up a national government. (END/2003)