SRI LANKA: Big U.S. Role in Peace Process Unlikely - Analysts

By Amantha Perera

BERKELEY, United States, Nov 28 (IPS) - The United States has been appearing more often in the political radar screen of Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe, but experts both in and out of the South Asian island nation do not see Washington taking up a major role in efforts to reach a settlement in its ethnic conflict.

In recent months, up until the prime minister's rival, President Chandrika Kumaratunga, fired three of his Cabinet members and declared a state of emergency early this month, Wickremasinghe has gone out of his way to ensure that U.S. support for his government does not diminish.

Perhaps the clearest signal of this was Wickremasinghe's comment upon his return from the United States after Kumaratunga's moves - he said that he had the full support of the U.S. government and that Washington backed the Sri Lankan government's 22-month-old ceasefire with the Tamil Tiger rebels.

Indeed, compared to past peace negotiations to end a rebellion aimed at having a homeland for minority Tamils, the U.S. government has played an active role in the current peace process. ”A lot of international pressure is there, that is what I think is keeping them (the government and the Tigers) from firing at each other, that's the only difference between this peace process and the previous ones,” Muttukrishna Sarvananthan, an economist at the International Centre for Ethnic Studies in Colombo, told IPS.

Washington was one of the co-chairs at the Tokyo donor conference in June that raised 4.5 billion U.S. dollars. It has also kept the pressure on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), as the Tigers are formally called, by continuing to list it as a foreign terrorist organisation.

Earlier in April, Washington hosted a conference of donors but not invite the LTTE because of its terrorist classification. This helped drive the Tigers to suspend its participation in the peace process - although the ceasefire has since held.

During an address to the U.N. General Assembly in October, Wickremasinghe expressed support for U.S. foreign policies, including the invasion of Iraq. At world trade negotiations the same month in Mexico, instead of joining the walkout by other developing nations, Sri Lankan Commerce Minister Ravi Karnanayake held talks with U.S. counterparts on bilateral trade.

But despite the U.S. government's more conspicuous role and Sri Lankan officials' welcoming it, some believe that Washington would never directly intervene in Sri Lanka.

The U.S. involvement in Sri Lanka is an unimportant yet unavoidable element of the larger global war on terror, they argue. ”The post Sep. 11 crackdown on international financing of the LTTE and other terrorist groups might have helped to bring the LTTE to the table,” Arun Swamy, a research fellow at the East-West Centre in Honolulu, told IPS.

”There is no way that the United States will be able to solve the Tamil Tiger problem,” Dale Watson, former FBI assistant director of counter-terrorism and counter-intelligence, said during a forum at the University of California Berkeley recently.

But there are others who say that the United States will continue to play a major role, if subtly.

”The United States will not get involved militarily but will support with logistics,” said Lasantha Wickrematunge, editor of the Colombo-based 'The Sunday Leader' newspaper, who was with Wickremasinghe in Washington.

He cites the loose agreement on cooperation on equipment and the gift to the Sri Lankan navy of a surveillance craft by the United States as examples of the change in attitude by Washington. Twenty members of the U.S. navy are also due to train with their Sri Lankan counterparts.

Announcing the training sessions, the U.S. Embassy in Colombo said that it ”exemplifies the strong relationship between the two nations'' and that it was one of many such ongoing programmes.

There has also been a string of visits by high-level U.S. officials, including Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, to Sri Lanka. Armitage visited the front lines in the north, the region most affected by the ethnic conflict.

Wickrematunge observed that significantly, the government also has the guarantee of U.S. support in case the peace process breaks down. ”The United States is throwing its diplomatic muscle behind the government. It will strangle the LTTE's international operations and use its strength with other countries in the event of war.”

The extent of U.S. involvement may however also be determined by India, the military and economic power in South Asia that has a history of engagement in the Sri Lankan conflict.

”It is unlikely given what they are dealing with in Afghanistan and Iraq that this administration would risk the political capital of trying to broker a deal and (it is) inconceivable that they would risk any forces. The latter would largely take care of India's security apprehensions,” Swamy observed.

During the initial months of peace talks, which began in September 2002, there were signs of disgruntlement both in New Delhi and in Colombo over the Wickremasinghe government's pro-U.S. stance.

In fact, the two main opposition parties -- the People's Alliance and the People's Liberation Front -- both called for more Indian involvement in the process. Wickremasinghe moved quickly and entered into a defence cooperation pact with India.

India's role is further emphasised since Sri Lanka does not hold much value for the U.S. financially and politically. According to 2002 figures, U.S. exports to Sri Lanka were a mere 172 million dollars, while to India they were 4 billion dollars. On the other hand, Sri Lanka's textile trade is heavily dependent on exports to the United States.

”Sri Lanka has no real strategic interest for the United States,” Wickrematunge said.

Its only political value, if any, would be as an ally in a volatile region with forces facing down each other armed with nuclear weapons. Said Swamy: ”Their main concern in South Asia. . . will be to ensure that nothing blows up between India and Pakistan.''