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Round-The-Clock Horse Trading Begins

By Thalif Deen

With less than 48 hours before the curtain comes down late Sunday, delegates began round-the-clock negotiations to finalise the Programme of Action which will spell out commitments -- some concrete, some deliberately vague -- on several politically and economically sensitive issues, ranging from debt cancellations to an increase in development aid.

"The horse trading has begun," one African diplomat told Terra Viva, "We may win some, we may lose some."

But the widespread view was that LDCs may eventually stand to lose because industrial nations have shown no inclination to make any firm commitments.

Speaking on behalf of the 133-member Group of 77 developing countries, Ambassador Anwarul Karim Chowdhury of Bangladesh told a joint session of the two Working Groups yesterday that every attempt should be made to prevent the conference being characterised as a failure. The LDCs, he said, were not willing to accept the eventual cop-out from donors, namely that they will have to "further examine" the LDC demands at a time and place of their choosing.

If this was the intention, he argued, there was no reason for the LDCs to meet this week. "The LDCs have started to throw up their hands in frustration," he said, in a strongly worded statement expressing the collective sentiments of the G-77 countries.

Chowdhury also said that it was time for the development partners to take firm political decisions. "In the Programme of Action, we LDCs have committed ourselves to take certain actions. We want our development partners to be equally ready to reciprocate our gesture. This cannot be a one-way street."

The Western nations were also warned not to hide behind the customary excuse couched in diplomatic jargon: "We have to await instructions from our capitals."

As everyone knows, one African diplomat said, no Western capital functions on Saturdays or Sundays -- and therefore "consultations" with capitals over the weekend are a joke at best, and an exercise in futility, at worst.

Conscious of this limitation, the chairman of the Prep Com pre-empted excuses by warning delegates yesterday morning: "You have six hours left to consult with your capitals."

Over the next 48 hours, delegates will be involved in heavy bargaining, a give-and-take reminiscent of a bustling market place.

According to one diplomat, Western nations are not likely to agree to two of the key demands: an outright cancellation of all bilateral and multilateral debts and a significant increase in official development assistance (ODA).

On the third demand, namely unconditional aid, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has already decided to untie aid, but this was subject to other decisions at this week's conference.

"This may be used as a bargaining chip," one diplomat said yesterday. In return, Western nations are likely to demand a commitment from LDCs to join a new round of trade talks at the next ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in Qatar in November.

If the LDCs relent, it will mean a split in the 133-member Group of 77 which is standing firm on the launching of a new round of trade negotiations.

In order to expedite negotiations, the two Working Groups involved in the Programme of Action decided to meet under a single umbrella for rapid fire action.

But most LDCs want to see concrete commitments on the negotiating table.

One African diplomat used a popular American idiom to characterise the LDC stand: "Show me the money," he said, "and everything else will fall into place".

But it was very unlikely that most donors would be willing even to pull out their wallets -- let alone show their money.