By Suvendrini Kakuchi
TOKYO, Jun 1 1995 (IPS)

A rare decision by North Korea to ask Tokyo for emergency rice supplies has thrown the Japanese government into one of its most difficult diplomatic dilemmas.

Excluded from nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang, Japan sees the request as an opportunity to play a key role in removing what security analysts deem the biggest threat to stability in Asia: North Korea’s nuclear development programme.

But Korea watchers say Tokyo is painfully aware it is virtually impossible to gain the approval of South Korea, which insists it should be consulted on matters concerning the North.

Li Song Rok, chairman of North Korea’s International trade Promotion Committee, disclosed when he visited Japan last week that his country had suffered a huge crop failure due to bad weather and asked for a loan of a “certain quantity of rice”.

Pyongyang also invited Japan this week to resume bilateral talks on the normalisation of ties, the first such move by North Korea after almost three years of chilly relations.

Political commentators see Pyongyang’s unexpected change of attitude as a confirmation that North Korea is indeed facing hard times.

Reports trickling out of the isolated nation in recent years have said a vast majority of the country’s 20 million people are suffering from malnutrition or even starving to death due to poor grain harvests and a rapidly deteriorating economy.

“Pyongyang is begging for the first time. The situation must be pretty desperate,” said Pyong Jong Bae, senior writer at the Tokyo bureau of ‘Korea Report’, a South Korean daily.

Experts also say North Korea’s move illustrates Kim Jong Il’s desire to secure his position as the country’s leader.

The nation will be marking the first death anniversary of his father Kim Il Sung in August, the time when the younger Kim is expected to formally take his place. “Celebrations will require that the devout masses are well fed, which is what (Kim Jong Il) desperately wants,” explained Pyong.

North Korea’s predicament offers a golden opportunity for Tokyo to take an active part in negotiations to persuade Pyongyang to cooperate with the international community on the nuclear issue, after being kept on the sidelines.

Japanese Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama says his government is considering Pyongyang’s request. He is said to be under pressure to do so by powerful Liberal Democratic Party politicians who completed a goodwill visit to Pyongyang last month.

“Japan is keen to go ahead with supplying rice to North Korea with the aim of getting the stubborn Pyongyang regime to open up further to the international world,” says Teruo Komaki, a senior researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies in Tokyo.

He says the Japanese government finds it hard to resist any move that offers a chance to woo North Korea’s reclusive leader and ease the mounting security fears in the region.

Another major reason why Japan is keen to grant the North’s request, add analysts, is the government’s desire to get rid of a large stockpile of foreign rice that the country does not need.

Japan was pressured into importing rice from the United States, China and Thailand last year, but Japanese consumers have rejected some 800,000 tonnes of mostly Thai rice which have been lying in storage for months.

Li suggested that the rice loan from Japan be completed by the end of June, and said Pyongyang could use most of the imported rice stored in Japan.

Despite the advantages of granting North Korea’s request, Tokyo is forced to go slow because of growing resistance in the South.

“It is virtually impossible for Japan to go ahead without Seoul’s consent. The government has to work out a compatible plan,” said Tsutomu Nishioka, editor of ‘Modern Korea’, a monthly publication covering the Korean peninsula.

Rha Woong Bae, vice prime minister of South Korea and head of the Korean unification agency, has said Seoul was willing to give the North a supply of grain, but Pyongyang has shown no sign it would accept the offer.

Japan’s Food Control law bans rice exports to countries with which Tokyo has no diplomatic ties. Experts say one way of getting rice across to the North would be for Japan to send it through South Korea.

There is growing support here for moves to help North Korea and develop bilateral ties, but Korea watchers warn it is important for Tokyo to ensure whatever assistance it sends to Pyongyang will reach the people. South Korea has accused the North of using its rice supply to feed its vast military rather than its population.

North Korea produces around 400,000 tonnes of grain, including rice, per year. China was its main supplier — providing some 165,000 tonnes annually — until Beijing began demanding cash payments in 1992.

“Rice from Japan could once again be diverted to the army. That will only strengthen the North’s military capabilities, increasing the danger in this region,” warned Pyong.

Despite the suspicions, analysts agree that Japan and South Korea have no choice but to supply rice to the North. As Nishioka points out, a starving North Korea would only lead to turmoil.

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