By IPS Correspondents
MOSCOW, Nov 28 1995 (IPS)

The victory of ex-communist Aleksander Kwasniewski in Poland’s presidential elections over Lech Valesa, who pioneered democratic changes in Eastern Europe in the 198O’s, could influence the results of the Dec. 17 parliamentary elections in Russia.

That’s the conclusion reached by political analysts here, who note that three weeks before the vote, Russian communists have posted a clear lead over other factions.

They attribute this to “the Polish factor”.

“The pendulum has swung from the anti-communist sentiments towards a search for the reasonable alternative to the devastating reforms of “wild capitalism”,” says Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party of Russia.

One of the candidates likely to be in the running for next year’s presidential elections, Zyuganov told IPS: “Across Europe there is a movement to the left, and this is taking place here as well.”

Zyuganov says the result of the Polish elections reflected a “wave of pro-communist feelings” in Eastern Europe. People had become disillusioned with “the illusory benefits” of the free market, he said.

“No one can deny that reformed communists have performed well in elections from Vilnius to Bratislava, and Poland also is the case,” he said.

Recent opinion polls in Russia have concluded Zyuganov’s Communist party is likely to be the big winner in the Dec. 17 elections. It has 2O per cent voter support, according to these surveys.

“Our Home is Russia” – a grouping headed by the premier Victor Chernomyrdin and strongly supported by the official media – lags behind with 12 per cent support. ‘Democratic Russia’, which backed President Boris Yeltsin, is not expected to clear the five per-cent barrier.

The communists’ strong organizational structure and popular campaign rhetoric have had a magical effect on Russian audience tired of the present economic and social chaos.

The Communist Party of Russia was dissolved following the August, 1991 coup attempt. By that time the Communists bore the brunt of the population’s anger at the abuses of the past 7O years of their uncontested domination in the one-party Soviet political system.

But enthusiasm at breaking the totalitarian Red Power soon vanished in the harsh realities of price reform, inflation, skyrocketing crime and unprecedented scale of corruption among the “new democrats”, much more than in the old Soviet days.

Nostalgia for the dismantled Soviet Union grew stronger as Russians saw their savings melt away to nothing, their stores stocked with the goods affordable only to the “new rich”, and Western values dominate over traditional Russian culture.

The Communist party lost no time in rushing to play on public discontent. Gennady Zyuganov bills the Communists as the party of the masses, the one chance that most Russians have to regain control over their lives.

He promises a return to the days of free education and medical care, a guaranteed right to work and housing and a powerful Motherland. The communists say they will annul the Belovezhsky Treaty dissolving the USSR and drive for a reintegration of the former Soviet republics.

Along the way they will also renationalize sectors of the economy they consider “strategic”, such as energy, communications and natural resources. The party’s seal contains the familiar hammer and sickle, now resting on an open book. There is also the slogan “Proletariat and repressed peoples, Unite!”

Kwasniewski’s triumph came as another morale-booster for Russian communists.

“Our communists, not knowing much about Kwasniewki, will say, ‘Yes, he is our party comrade”‘ says Sergei Parkhomenko, analyst in the daily newspaper Segodnya. Poland’s supposed red revenge, Parkhomenko said, will nevertheless surely become a communist staple on the campaign trial.

“Russian communists will say – ‘Look at Poland’ – which has always been Russian reformists’ best example of economic reforms.’Look at your beloved Poland!’ they’ll say. ‘Even Poland has chosen the communists!”

But Pavel Kandal, of the Institute of Europe based here says it would be too simplistic to draw parallels between Poland and Russia.

“One can see that Zyuganov is not Kwasniewski. The new Polish president stands for increased foreign investment and continued privatization – it is hardly Zyuganov’s program with its emphasis on growing state control in the economy. Contrary to Russian communists’ strong anti-NATO sentiments Kwasniewski advocates Poland joining NATO and European Union.”

According to Kandel, the more interesting question was not who won the Polish elections but who lost them. The fall of Walesa – just six years after Poland’s communist government crumbled – may hold important lessons for his Russian counterpart, Boris Yeltsin.

“The historic role of both was to destroy. The similarities between Walesa and Yeltsin are striking – not only politically, but personally. Both are strong anti-communist minded, graceless and rude in dealing with political opponents. Both destroyed what they could and thus accomplished their historic mission”, Kandel concludes.

One in eight Poles now lives in poverty, compared to one in five Russians. That explains why Walesa’s approval rating, like Yeltsin’s, nosedived.

Though the influence of the Polish vote is likely to be limited in Russia, one should not ignore it completely, experts say.

“Like Kwasniewski, Zyuganov may also show a profound ability for change,” Alexei Kiva, professor from the Moscow-based Institute of Oriental studies, told IPS. According to Kiva, associating Zyuganov with the old Soviet hard-liners would be another mistake.

“Zyuganov has done a remarkable job of reforming his party. Even more amazingly he has gained the cautious support of the Western business establishment which seems convinced that Zyuganov’s intentions are ultimately benign,” Kiva says.

At an American Chamber of Commerce luncheon in October Zyuganov assured American businessmen that his party would create favorable conditions for investment.

“Zyuganov has started to play by the rules of the modern Russian political game and will be fenced in by them. Western financial institutions and Russian bankers have already staked a claim with him,” notes Thomas de Waal, “The Moscow Times” daily columnist. (IPS/ENDS/SS/FN/95)

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