By Tito Drago
MADRID, Mar 5 1996 (IPS)

Jose Maria Aznar has had little time to relish the victory he scored in Sunday’s general elections before being forced to face up to the reality of its somewhat unsavory aftermath.

On Tuesday, the leader of the Popular Party (PP) continued efforts to cobble together a coalition that will force him into bed with opponents his party finds disagreeable.

With the PP having won only 156 of the seats in parliamnet — 20 short of an absolute majority, and only 15 more than the conquered Socialists — Aznar faces a dilemma that makes his victory appear somewhat hollow.

For to prevent Spain from tumbling into a period of instability that could force fresh elections, Aznar may have to enter a partnership with the Catalan Convergence and Union party (CiU).

Led by the pugnatious nationalist Jordi Pujol, this party is hated by many PP supporters. It won 16 seats in Catalonia despite a vigorous PP offensive. But such is the suddenness with which a new reality has dawned that by Sunday night PP supporters had abandoned their normal chant of “Pujol, dwarf, learn to speak Spanish”.

Analysts say Aznar is almost doomed unless he gets the support of the CiU. However, Pujol, has insited since the elections that his party is not disposed to support the PP leader as Prime minister, given its centralist ESPANOLISTA convictions.

Aznar told a press conference any agreement he reached would be “transparent” – meaning its details would be fully disclosed.

The Spanish Workers Socialist Party (PSOE) won 141 seats, the United Left (IU) 21. Seats were also won by the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), the regionalist Canary Coalition (CC), the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), the Basque independent coalition, the Catalonian Republican Left (ERC), Eusko Alkartasuna (EA, a splinter PNV group) and finally the regionalist Valencian Union (UV).

A total of 176 seats are required to obtain half plus one of the 350 deputies forming the Congress (parliament) needed to be charged with designating the prime minister.

The Constitution provides that the candidate proposed by the King – after consultations involving all parties represented in parliament – can be invested as prime minister on the first vote if he succeeds in winning half plus one of the votes of the deputies present. This vote is to take place by mid-April.

If no one gets an absolute majority, a second vote will be held 48 hours afterwards, in which a relative majority will be sufficient. This means that if more votes are against than in favour, the candidate for prime minister would be rejected, and parliament would return to voting on other candidates. If two months after the first vote no one obtains a simple majority, new general elections would be called.

As the PP leader admitted, “it’s a difficult situation”.

Observers say an accord with the CiU would be difficult, considering the virulence of the mutual attacks over the last two years.

Should a tacit or explicit accord be reached between the PSOE, IU and some of the small parties to prevent his designation as prime minister, Aznar would simply note – as he has done several times – that his is the party which has won the election, his is the party with more votes and more MPs than any other party, and moreover has an ample majority in the Senate and won 13 of the 17 Spanish autonomous regions.

Aznar has said he was disposed to form a stable government either in coalition or by a pact with another party to last for the four-year duration of the legislature.

He does not want to condition the other parties with such agreements in advance. Instead, he prefers to negotiate with them.

“What is agreed will be transparent, without secret pacts, since Spaniards have the right to know everything that has transpired during the PP’s negotiations with other parties”

Aznar has even refused to say which formula he prefers. However he has asked that everyone assume the responsibility for guaranteeing the stability of the country, “and of course the party which has at this moment the major responsiblity for this is the PP”.

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