By Dalia Acosta
HAVANA, Jul 25 1996 (IPS)

The Cuban government will celebrate the July national holidays in an atmosphere of tranquility provided by several international resolutions in their favour, though they are still listening out for any “noises” from the United States.

The Fidel Castro administration was not explicitly condemned for the shooting down of two Miami registered civilian planes last February 24 by the International Civil Aviation Organisation, though the United Nations Security Council verdict has still not been issued.

Meanwhile, the Helms-Burton bill, which aims to reinforce the US blockade on the island, is failing in its aim of isolating Cuba, leaving Washington out on its own.

US attempts to apply extraterritorial rules against companies from third countries doing business with Cuba were rejected once again Thursday by the European Union, which was even considering taking the case to the World Trade Organisation.

But at the same time, “survival” is the flavour of the day for the majority of Cubans who are trying to “keep going” however they can, by both legal or illegal means.

Potential emigrees are still abundant, and though the return of a group of illegal raft people is reported from time to time, many are hoping to leave Cuba through legal channels.

Migration agreements between Havana and Washington forsee the repatriation of all the illegal immigrants and guarantee a quota of at least 20,000 visas for those who fulfill the requisites for permanent emigration to the United States.

Jose Luis Rodriguez, Cuba’s Economy and Planning minister, said early this month that “the worst of the crisis is now behind us” adding that the recovery is “irreversible.”

Official sources report a 9.6 percent growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first six months of this year and a lift off in sugar and nickel production, and in agriculture and the main industrial sectors.

“The difficulties and living conditions of the population are still very tough,” said Vicepresident Carlos Lage in a meeting on the economic achievements of the year and their influence on the population.

In the first seven months of 1996, taxes on self-employed workers increased and a campaign was started against prostitution, drugs, corruption and any non-official attempts at liberalisation.

The apparent calm which reigned throughout 1995 ended in February with an event which only went to prove the Cuban saying that “nothing ever happens, or it all happens at the same time.”

In one day, Feb. 24, the Cuban airforce shot down the two civil planes, the Catholic Church closed its most important meeting in ten years, and dissidents protested about the prohibition of a meeting of more than 100 opposition groups.

Meanwhile, the people of Havana were celebrating the triumph of their baseball team in the national games and the younger generation were dancing near the sea in an open air concert by the Spanish group ‘Los Formula V.’

“Now they are talking about how the end of the blockade is drawing closer, and suddenly, what they do is make it tougher,” said one university professor.

The “airplane crisis” ended the relative easing of relations between Cuba and the United States and gave way to a new bout of conflicts and constant confrontations between the two countries.

The duel is basically due to provocative action against the Castro administration by the Cuban exiles in the United States, and US President Bill Clinton’s desire to slap international sanctions and pin narcotrafficking tabs on the nation.

Local observers classed the press reports in Miami linking Castro to drug trafficking Thursday as “highly symptomatic.”

“We have to be alert. If the United States does not achieve international sanctions against Cuba as a result of the airplane crisis they are going to achieve it by other means,” a source close to the foreign ministry told IPS.

The news of Castro’s alleged narcotrafficking links came on the eve of the national holiday on Jul 26, in celebration of the uprising against the unconstitutional government of Fulgencio Batista in 1953.

Following the triumph of the 1959 revolution, carnaval was moved to the end of July and early August, a time that was also used for issuing an overview of the year’s events, both economic and political.

Castro is expected to appear in public Friday night to report on the political situation as Lage gave the economic report on Tuesday.

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