By Dalia Acosta
HAVANA, Sep 25 1996 (IPS)

Cubans are fearing a return to the frequent electrical blackouts that made life on the island so miserable earlier in the decade.

News of an increase in the price of oil triggered worry not so much about the shortage of gasoline that would ensue, nor the likelihood of an abrupt suspension of kerosene allowances for families who use the fuel to cook, but a return of power cuts.

Cuba’s Sociological and Psychological Research Centre said shortages of food and blackouts were the most worrying elements of the economic crisis which has hit the Caribbean island over the last six years.

Since 1990, the island’s 11 million people have been facing their worst economic crisis in memory. Its onset coincided with changes in Eastern Europe which ruptured the socialist system with which the island’s communist government had fraternal links and vital economic ties.

A process of recovery began in late 1994: the fear is that this could be undermined by the lack of resources to purchase oil stocks at new prices.

According to official sources, Cuba’s oil import bill could rise by 100 million dollars this year as a result of a seven percent increase in the price of oil over recent weeks.

World oil prices had been expected to fall with the return of Iraq to the market under an agreement with the United Nations for limited sales of petroleum. But this agreement was suspended after the outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iraq.

(On Monday, the price of the OPEC — Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries — basket of seven crudes stood at 21.71 dollars a barrel, compared with 21.38 dollars the previous Friday. In June the price was 18.37 dollars.)

On Sep. 17, Cuban Vice-President Carlos Lage admitted the increase in oil and food prices, and the falling value of Cuban exports like nickel, had resulted in losses of 170 million dollars.

Economic experts say the country does not have the option of increasing exports in short order. Its steel is not of high enough quality. Sugar and nickel have pre-set prices. Though the tobacco sector is free to fix prices, the authorities do not want to discourage demand.

“We have to prepare ourselves for the prices (of energy) to continue high, and make predictions for the next year on this basis,” said Vice-minister of Economy and Planning, Jose Gonzalez.

However, total fuel consumption will probably be similar to what is planned as this will be guaranteed by the expected five percent growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), said Gonzalez.

Though he did not state whether there would be a broadened schedule of planned blackouts, Gonzalez said that in previous years, the cuts had been due to a shortage of oil, but, above all, to low levels of maintenance of generating plants.

Peace of mind finally entered Cuban homes in February, when the Ministry of Basic Industry said he hoped to make the national electricity system more efficient with the aim of increasing the amount of electricity on offer.

Generating capacity fell to 40 percent in 1994, one of the worst years of the crisis, rising to 57.1 percent in December last year. It currently stands at 60 percent.

Experts from the Cuban Economy Studies Centre said power cuts in the residential sector, which lasted an average of more than ten hours per day in the worst moments of the crisis, had been reduced to some four hours in late 1995.

“This year they’ve nearly never cut my electricity,” said Nadia Sanchez, a communications engineer, who said there was nothing worse than arriving home after an eight-hour working day to be greeted by the “pleasant surprise” of a defrosted fridge.

Just the thought of more blackouts has already caused a run on kerosene, the domestic fuel used in 75 percent of homes, and in petrol sales.

Gonzalez told the newspaper ‘Juventud Rebelde’ that this year the government had only been able to satisfy between half of the daily demand for kerosene.

Sale of petrol is restricted to a monthly quota of some 15 or 20 litres for sale to car owners paying with Cuban pesos. Purchasers with dollars make purchases at higher prices — the equivalent of 60 cents per libre for regular and 95 for special.

According to Gonzalez, the situation in the electricity and domestic fuel sectors will remain the same over the next few months, but petrol prices for the public could be subject to revision.

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