By IPS Correspondents
MOSCOW, Sep 9 1996 (IPS)

Debate is raging over what will happen to the levers of Russian power during the month President Boris Yeltsin is expected to be out of action recuperating from heart surgery.

Yeltsin’s announcement Thursday that he will be operated on later this month triggered immediate calls for him to take measures to prevent a power vaccuum while he is incapacitated.

Security Council Secretary Alexander Lebed appeared on Russian independent television (NTV) last weekend calling Yeltsin to hand over power to prime minister Victor Chernomyrdin.

In an interview with NTV Lebed said that Yeltsin should officially name Chernomyrdin to prevent people from acting in the president’s name.

“A situation has arisen where someone (Yeltsin) is unable to carry out his duties,” Lebed said. “There must be a juridicially defined period of time when the president is dealing with his personal aafairs and someboby is taking on all obligations to run the country.

“For that period, by his order or decree, a person who would run the country and be responsible for what is going on should be clearly defined and named — and his name is Victor Chernomyrdin.”

Alexander Shokhin, deputy speaker of the State Duma, joined Lebed in calling for Chernomyrdin to be made temporary head of state.

“If the president took such a decision and enforced it with a decree, then it would help matters,” Shokhin told Interfax agency.

Lebed, the man often viewed as a future presidential challenger to Chernomyrdin, made it clear he would cooperate in any such interim arrangement. Yeltsin’s arch-rival in presidential ballot Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov called for a meeting of ministers and party leaders to discuss the implications of Yeltsin’s illness.

“We must meet and discuss the situation in the country in light of the president’s illness,” Zyuganov told journalists. “We must draw up a policy to avoid any possible destabilization of the country. Also we have to do everything so that the law will prevail in this situation.”

Zyuganov blamed the presidential entourage for Yeltsin’s ill health, alleging that they have been protecting their own interests in forcing Yeltsin through a gruelling election campaign.

Zyuganov, who lost to Yeltsin in the presidential elections this summer, made the president’s ailing health one of the issues of his campaign. Since then he has repeatedly criticized Yeltsin for his prolonged absence from the Kremlin, saying the newly elected president is not fit to run the country.

The Constitution of the Russian Federatiuon states that in the event that the president dies or becomes incapacitated, the prime minister takes over as caretaker head of state.

Presidential elections must then be held withing three months. However, the Constitution does not specify how ill the Russian leader has to be to be considered “incapacitated”.

The question whether Chernomyrdin should have presidential powers only while Yeltsin is being operated on later this month or also throughout the possibly months-long recuperation period also remains unresolved. One unidentified source close to Chernomyrdin was quoted by ITAR-TASS as saying the premier has not yet received any explanation from the president about an upcoming delegation of power.

“It’s still too early to talk about concrete directives from the president to the premier in regards to government leadership during Boris Yeltsin’s surgery and the following recovery period,” an unidentified source close to premier Chernomyrdin told ITAR-TASS.

“Although the constitution makes it quite clear that Chernomyrdin takes power in Yeltsin’s absence, it will be difficult for Yeltsin to make such a step,” says Sergei Solodovnik, leading research fellow with the Institute of International relations.

“His style of government has always been to keep several rival factions around him in such an unstable orbit that they cannot present a threat to him. But this time he must, temporarily, hand over all of his powers and authority.”

Since the first round of the presidential elections this summer, the president has dissapeared almost entirely from public view, prompting speculations that his health was deteriorating.

The weekly magazine “Itogi”, quoting medical sources, reports in its issue Monday that Yeltsin was reluctant to have surgery. However, Chernomyrdin, who himself had a bypass surgery in secret in 1992, persuaded him, according to “Itogi”.

Meantime, it was Yeltsin’s chief of staff Anatoly Chubais who insisted last week that president talk with journalists abouth his health.

“There was a mistrust and cynicism surrounding the issue of Yeltsin’s health. Instead, Chubais won Yeltsin sympathy and respect from the public. Russians are are a very sympathetic people, especially towards the sick,” says Andrei Piontkowsky, director of the Moscow-based Center for Strategic Studies.

The timing of Yeltsin’s interview on his health may have been meant to coincide with the start of a new political season in Moscow as most politicians are returning from Summer break and the Duma is preparing to reconvene at the end of September.

Experts note that in Yeltsin’s absence a triumvirate of prime minister Victor Chernomyrdin, National Security Chief Alexander Lebed and presidential chief of staff Anatoly Chubais are seen as the three main political forces capable of taking up the reigns of power.

“The powers-that-be cannot take a vacation or lie in a hospital bed,” the daily newspaper “Segodnya” comments. “It must be assumed that the president, understanding this, has put his faith in the trio of Chubais, Chernomyrdin and Lebed”.

The article added that Lebed, and more recently Chubais, had shown by their confident action that they will not allow a power vaccuum in Yeltsin’s absence. Chubais, for one, demonstrated his influence when a new decree on taxation was repealed by president Yeltsin on Friday.

The decree which would have taxed bank accounts holders on interests received was criticized earlier this week by Chubais. Sergei Chugayev, political analyst of the daily “Izvestia”, claims Chubais will not stand in Chernomyrdin’s way since he and the prime minister have grown to respect each other over their years in politics together.

“Besides, Chubais’ entire political fate rests with the well- being of the president,” Chugayev believes. As for Lebed, after his defeat in the first round of presidential elections he made clear that his political ambitions were unchecked, saying that he expected a new presidential race before Yeltsin’s current term is up.

Lebed’s backers Thursday announced the formation of a new political union “For truth and order” to serve as a vehicle for promoting Lebed’s agenda.

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