By IPS Correspondents
LIMA, Dec 4 1996 (IPS)

Protracted peace talks between Peru and Ecuador, that followed their undeclared war of 1995, could be threatened by an arms race after Peru’s recent purchase of 12 Russian-made MIG-29 fighter-bombers.

The new additions to Peru’s Air Force brought immediate response from Quito. Ecuadoran Defense Minister General Manuel Vaya declared the MIG-29s were not basically interceptor aircraft, for use in defence systems, but rather attack planes. He warned Ecuador would need to purchase similar jet aircraft.

Peru and Ecuador tangled in January and February of 1995 in an undeclared war in the frontier jungle area – ownership of which is still undefined in the 1942 treaty – signed by both countries in Rio De Janeiro. There was no clear military outcome to the fighting and both sides declared themselves winners.

Ecuador, however, showed it had a marked air superiority through better logistical preparation, a fact which did not go unnoticed by the Peruvian military.

Mediation efforts by Argentina, Brazil, Chile and the United States – who act as guarantors of the border treaty between Ecuador and Peru – managed to get the two parties to agree to peace and sit down at the negotiating table. The guarantor countries have been pushing Peru and Ecuador to reach a definitive and peaceful solution to their differences.

Peru’s move in building up the strength of its Air Force obviously concerned Ecuador. The head of the Ecuadoran Armed Forces, General Paco Moncayo, declared acquisition of the MIG-29s “does not help build the necessary confidence for a peaceful solution, and Ecuador will have to take measures in order to negotiate its territorial controversy with Peru, with the proper assurance and without threats.”

Peru on the other hand insisted its new jets had restored the necessary strategic balance to dissuade any Ecuadoran military “hawks” from further adventures in the dispouted border area.

Military analysts opined that while Peru has a fleet of 12 of the MIG-29s – small by North American or European standards – it placed in the hands of the Peruvian Armed Forces the most powerful and fast warplane in Latin America, comparable to the F-16 of the United States.

It also raised the question of whether Washington might lift a ban on the sale of F-16 planes in Latin America, thus involving Argentina and Chile – who both want to buy new aircraft for their armed forces.

If Chile and Argentina succeeded in obtaining F-16s, it could provoke a cascade of similar initiatives in Brazil, Venezuela and Colombia, analysts believed.

Although the purchase of the MIGs has been supported by all political and military sectors in Peru, the logistical source and the nature of the contract could provoke investigations in the immediate future about the possible lack of transparency in the commercial operation.

The aerial fleet was purchased from Belarus, a country which inherited the MIG-29 after the fragmentation of the Soviet Union and which has put them up for sale at prices below production costs. The jets are similar to the F-16s and, together with the British Harriers and the French Mirage 2000, were the “stars” of the March air display in Chile. It was on that occasion that the Peruvian Armed Forces chiefs did their deal to buy the MIG-29s.

Analysts considered that, by acquiring the sophisticated, long- range planes which can fly at twice the speed of sound, the Peruvian military – which did not fare too well in the aerial combats with Ecuador in January 1995 – is returning to a strategy of dissuasive force. If peace talks foundered, this would mean Peru would attempt to remain aloof and not be forced into localized skirmishes as in 1995.

According to some Peruvian analysts, the only concession that the Ecuadoran military would accept is territorial, a formula that President Alberto Fujimori cannot accept, because his own military ranks would not agree to this and it would risk his chances for reelection.

When, in the middle of this year, Washington expressed its intentions of removing its troops from the Foreign Observers’ Mission – which is supervising peace on the border between both countries – Fujimori thought that he was losing one of the most important diplomatic guarantees on his frontier.

He then changed his mind on spending money on arms. Earlier this year, when he learned of military’s contacts with Belarus for the purchase of the MIG-29s – Fujimori limited himself to saying that he would not allow “corrupt operations with over-valuations and commissions”.

Apparently, he finally accepted the deal with Belarus, because Russia – the manufacturer – was demanding payment of an old debt made in devalued rubles, and which it now wants to claim in strong currency, for an amount topping one billion dollars.

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