By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON, Mar 18 1997 (IPS)

The administration of U.S. President Bill Clinton is calling on both the insurgent alliance and the government in Zaire to declare a ceasefire and begin talks, now that the city of Kisangani is firmly under rebel control.

State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said Monday that Washington was “extremely concerned” about the situation in Zaire, suggesting that foreign support of the rebellion now threatens the central African giant’s territorial integrity.

“We are repeating our calls today on the government of Zaire and on the rebel alliance of Mr. Laurent Kabila to agree to an immediate ceasefire (and) to direct dialogue and negotiations, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict,” said Burns, who added that Washington supported peace efforts by U.N. Special Envoy Mahmoud Sahnoun.

“We think (they are) the only logical way to proceed to reinforce the political stability within Zaire, (and its) sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Burns said, stressing the need for a “democratic transition”.

“This does not mean transition from one person to another,” he said. “It means transition from an essentially autocratic country to one that is governed by the rule of law, where elections have a place in the political system, where people have some right to believe that they’ll get to choose the country’s leaders.”

In the wake of the rebels’ successful capture of Kisangani, Zaire’s third largest city, analysts here expect a lull in the fighting over the next week or two, as the rebels consolidate their hold on what has become virtually the entire eastern third of Zaire.

“They could go all the way to Kinshasa,” said one military analyst, who spoke on condition he not be identified. The analyst warned, however, that the Special Presidential Division (DSP), made up of elite troops whose commanders are closely linked to President Mobutu Sese Seko, was unlikely to give up the capital without a fight.

Experts here believe that, if the rebels — known as the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire — pursue their offensive, they will more likely move into diamond- rich Kasai province in the central part of Zaire and possibly into Shaba province in the southeast.

“At this point, Shaba is sitting out there, ready to be taken,” according to one official, who also asked to remain unidentified.

A move to Shaba, historically a bastion of secessionism, has been made more likely by the intervention in the last two weeks of descendants of Katangese gendarmes, who fled from their homeland during and after the former Belgian Congo’s chaotic independence in 1960.

At the same time, reports that the Angolan rebel organisation, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), has also moved hundreds of its best troops into Shaba province to fight for Mobutu who, often with U.S. support, has been their most important supplier since the early 1980s.

According to some analysts, UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi has spread his forces dangerously thin. These troops are supposed to be disarming under a U.N. plan. “The last battle of the war for Angola may well be fought in Zaire in the next few weeks,” said one official.

Washington, which no longer supports UNITA, voiced serious concern about all the movement across the Angola-Zaire border. Burns called it an “extremely troubling development,” which, combined with the backing rebels have received from Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi, could threaten Zaire’s existence as a nation.

“Zaire is threatened on all sides,” Burns warned. “The territorial integrity of Zaire (and) its sovereignty (are) terribly important for stability throughout central Africa.”

Much could now depend on Kabila’s foreign backers, according to analysts. Most believe none wants to formally partition Zaire, and all of them have been surprised by the speed with which the rebels have moved westwards, virtually uncontested.

“None of these (foreign) leaders thought the rebels would sweep all the way across the country,” said one administration source. “Now, they have to review the situation and see if they want Kabila to go all the way and under what conditions.”

France, which, until Kisangani’s fall Saturday, had urged the insertion of a U.N. force between the rebels and the strategic city, is expected to strongly urge Washington to press Uganda and Rwanda to try to rein in Kabila.

France, where Mobutu is currently getting treatment for prostate cancer, is Mobutu’s closest western ally, despite his three decades of collaboration with Washington during the Cold War.

But analysts here discount Mobutu’s ability to survive this latest setback. His only chance is to gain a ceasefire and then to drag out negotiations.

But that chance appears to be receding. As Burns acknowledged Monday, “there’s no indication to us that the rebel alliance is going to slow in its military offensive. We appeal to it to do so; to lay down their arms (and) stop the fighting. But I have no indication they will accept that,” he said.

Indeed, in the coming days, the critical action could take place in Kinshasa, where worried generals have reportedly already begun manoeuvring for position in what could become a violent struggle within Mobutu’s own camp.

Special attention is being paid to the chief of the army, Gen. Mahele Lieko Bokungo, who is considered hostile to the die-hard Mobutu loyalists in the powerful DSP. While most army units have cut and run in the face of the five-month-old rebel campaign, some have switched sides and joined the insurgents.

“Unless there’s a real ceasefire real soon, pressure for a coup in Kinshasa is going to grow and grow. Depending on who leads it and how much of the armed forces he has behind him, the whole capital could go up in flames,” said the military expert.

“The other possibility is that the DSP heads out of Kinshasa up to Gbadolite and hunkers down,” he added. Gbadolite, on Zaire’s northern border with the Central African Republic, is Mobutu’s home town and the homeland of his N’gbandi ethnic group from which the presidential guard is drawn.

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