By IPS Correspondents
BANGKOK, Apr 25 1997 (IPS)

When Cambodia held successful elections under the United Nations’ watchful eye in 1993, many took it as the start of the war-torn country’s journey toward democracy.

But whether those elections, hailed as proof of a successful peacekeeping operation by a multinational force, have led to a democratic political culture are at best doubtful.

In fact, the proximity of Cambodia’s next general poll in 1998 seems to be serving as the spark for violent incidents and nasty infighting that are fuelling concern in South-east Asia about the country’s political stability.

In the last few years, Cambodians have watched a constant tug- of-war between their two co-prime ministers, first prime minister Prince Norodom Ranariddh and co-premier Hun Sen, whose attempts at cooperation after the 1993 elections have long frayed.

Political tensions have grown over the years. Journalists have been murdered, and supporters of Hun Sen and Ranariddh regularly accuse each other of sponsoring violent attacks.

A March 30 blast in Phnom Penh, which killed at least 15 people, may well be a prelude to more violence. The attack, apparently meant to kill Sam Rainsy, an opposition politician allied with the royalist FUNCINPEC party of Ranariddh, was immediately blamed on Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party.

An investigation panel has been formed to look into the incident, although there are widespread doubts the probe will do much. Nevertheless, an independent investigation would do much for Cambodia’s image.

With a year to go before the elections, simmering animosity among leading political parties has reached fever pitch. The balance of power in Cambodia’s fractious government is unstable and divisions seem to be emerging even within Ranarridh’s party.

In mid-April, 12 members of parliament belonging to the FUNCINPEC withdrew support from the party, reducing it to a minority in the coalition government. FUNCINPEC supremo Ranariddh immediately accused Hun Sen of engineering the defections and trying to stage a constitutional coup.

In turn Hun Sen pledged financial support for the dissidents and claimed that as a result of the defections, his party had secured a parliamentary majority in the 120-seat National Assembly.

Eight of the 12 defectors later returned to the FUNCINPEC fold. But the leader of the breakaway faction, Toan Chhay, says he will go ahead with his own party congress before the end of May, in an unprecedented challenge to Ranariddh’s leadership.

Toan Chhay, governor of Siem Reap province, says his faction seeks to reform the party platform, strengthen the monarchy and improve relations between FUNCINPEC and Hun Sen’s CPP.

On opposite sides of the civil war during the eighties, Hun Sen and Ranariddh formed a coalition after FUNCINPEC won the 1993 UN- sponsored elections by a slender majority, not enough to form a government on its own.

Their coalition survived without much trouble for the first two years, but has become increasingly untenable since last year as both parties started jockeying for political advantage in the 1998 polls.

“It is clear that both parties would like to have power exclusively to themselves if given a chance again,” says an Asian diplomat based in Phnom Penh.

Without the help of the FUNCINPEC dissidents, the CPP and smaller parties aligned with it hold 57 seats in the National Assembly, compared with the 63 held by FUNCINPEC and its allies.

If Hun Sen’s group gets a majority of seats, it could pass legislation but would still be short of the two-thirds majority of 80 seats needed to make constitutional changes or to sack or appoint government officials and MPs.

The real danger is that the political feud between the two groups could escalate into open armed conflict and undermine the country’s fragile democracy, added the Asian diplomat. In a speech after the defections, Ranariddh ominously said: “If we continue the war of words…it could lead to massacres again”.

The latest political unrest has prompted Pen Sovann, a former premier and one-time leader of Hun Sen’s party, to appeal for calm in the military, which has factions loyal to the two groups.

Last year, members of the armed forces aligned with the CPP and FUNCINPEC clashed briefly in Cambodia’s northwestern Battambang province.

Tension has also risen in the wake of the unsuccessful attempt by former FUNCINPEC secretary general Prince Norodom Sirivudh, half-brother of King Norodom Sihanouk, to return from exile this month. He had wanted to go back to challenge a 1996 conviction in an alleged plot to assassinate Hun Sen.

Protracted political wrangling is damaging already fragile confidence in Cambodia, with aid workers saying it will become harder to campaign for more assistance vital to its economy. Worse, some analysts are saying Cambodia, which has one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world, may not be ready for entry into the Association of South-east Asian Nations this July.

A former finance minister and head of the opposition Khmer Nation Party, Rainsy is now touring Western countries to drum up international support against Hun Sen and his party, whom he accuses of sponsoring “irregularities, lawlessness, and violence” in Cambodia.

This month, Rainsy urged the overseas Cambodian community to ask the US government to pressure Hun Sen to ensure broader human rights and democratic freedoms.

FUNCINPEC leaders allege that the split in the party was engineered by Hun Sen to divert public attention from charges his group is engaged in criminal acts, including drug trafficking.

Though a lot of media attention has been focused on the alleged authoritarian behaviour of Hun Sen and his party, many political analysts say the FUNCINPEC is not much different.

Last month, Prince Ranariddh threatened to send tanks to the Cambodian Ministry of Information to force the minister, a Hun Sen ally, to broadcast FUNCINPEC messages on national radio.

Evidence of FUNCINPEC’s own dictatorial tendencies can also be found in the statement signed by the dissident MPs who retracted their withdrawal of support to the party. Each retraction, which was identical, said the signatory would “support and follow without reservation the vision and leadership of Prince Ranariddh until the end of my life”.

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