By IPS Correspondents
BRIDGETOWN, Oct 8, Oct 8 1997 (IPS)

Pam, 49, is among one of the many addicted cybersurfers in this Eastern Caribbean country — especially during the annual hurricane season.

“Looking at that nasty wave to the east of us, we are going to get drenched!” she exclaims excitedly as she peers at the latest satellite picture on her computer screen.

That is just one of the numerous colour satellite images that novices can access from dozens of weather sites on the web, including the National Hurricane Centre. The yellows in the cloud mean that it will be light rain, the blues and purples mean heavy thundershowers. Pam, especially, looks for the blues and the purples, calculate distances and brace herself.

She is just like many other Barbadians — a hurricane season without the ability to track the weather via the Internet is like visiting Paris without seeing the Eiffel Tower, some say. It just is a must.

The popularity of weather sites on the web was discovered last year when there was a very brisk hurricane season with every tropical wave coming off the African coastline developing into a tropical depression which is the forerunner to the development of a storm.

People here were bombarding one of the local radio stations volunteering the latest information from the Weather Channel which was available well before the local bulletins and in some cases differed from what the local authorities were saying. Seemingly part of the Barbadian culture, people tend to believe what comes from abroad.

But, local weather and emergency officials are cautioning Barbadian surfers about relying on or making critical decisions based on the web’s forecasts.”If people take it only from the web, they will be missing out on a lot of things … they should listen to us,” says Vic Larrier, acting Director of the Barbados Meteorological Department.

Acting Supervisor of the Central Emergency Relief Organisation, Clive Lorde, has also sounded the same warning. He is concerned about how people interpret the information.

Forecasting is an inexact science, as Barbadians know only too well. For weather-addicted surfers there is comfort in being able to call up satellite, surface charts, weather forecasts, strike probabilities and other types of information from places such as the National Hurricane Centre in Miami and the atmospheric science departments of universities at Michigan and Hawaii and the news departments of CNN and NBC, the officials say.

Barbadians also pride themselves in being able to access the wealth of information, compared to the “paltry” bit that comes from official channels not often enough, as well as being able to get bulletins from the National Hurricane Centre almost one hour before the advisories on local radio.

Larrier has nothing against the use of the web for weather information. In fact, some of the colour weather maps which have been used to enhance the weather news on local television within recent months come from the Internet.

The meteorological office also uses the Net as a backup to their satellite-based system through which they access daily data from an official distribution centre in Washington DC.

But, says Larrier, people should not make critical decisions on the web-based forecasts. “There is nothing wrong in accessing the web but there are some things we will be telling them (Barbadians) that the web would not,” says Larrier.

He says the information and forecasts issued by meteorologists in North America are usually of a general nature which needs to be translated and related to the local situation. “You get half of the story from the web. We have to add the other half (to make it meaningful) to Barbados,” he says.

For example, the web forecasters will not say the size of the swells along the coastline, whether or not fishermen should stay in port, of if the system will bypass Barbados or strike it.

The meteorological office provides that type of information after combining certain basic data with indigenous climatic characteristics.

In terms of storm path, Larrier says there are eight computer models which predict the path of a storm based on a number of weather conditions, which influence the direction the storm will take. When these conditions are weak it is very difficult to project a direction as the models may indicate several different routes.

When this happens the meteorologists consult and a decision is taken on a course and a forecast issued. A surfer, accessing the Net, will not know this and may be misled into a false sense of security or unnecessary scare.

The surfer may still feel fussy in receiving weather bulletins nearly one hour before the meteorological office issues its advisories.

“I won’t apologise for issuing it at that time because we have to take the information and custom tailor it to the local situation,” says Larrier.

Lorde too is concerned about how people interpret the information. “Danger lies in persons determining for themselves and acting on that rather than on information from the meteorological office… ,” he says. “Taking weather charts off the Net does not mean that people can interpret them correctly.”

He says while people are entitled to receive any information they desire, their use of it is what matters. “If you keep it for yourself that is legal, but if you use it to inform third parties, that is illegal.”

He recalls that there was much confusion in the air when CNN and other foreign news services first beamed to the region with weather news. In explaining the position of storm systems, the news services would relate it to the nearest island, which often was Barbados.

This created problems because it gave the impression that Barbados was in danger. “We got them to stop doing that,” says Lorde.

To further protect any country, he says that the alert status for that country would not be in any National Hurricane Centre bulletin except with the agreement of the local meteorological office. The bottom line, says Lorde, is to let the professionals interpret the information and advise accordingly.

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