By Feizal Samath
COLOMBO, Dec 23 1997 (IPS)

Sri Lanka’s President Chandrika Kumaratunga thinks 1998 will be a turning point for the island nation. Top priority is being given to ending the costly ethnic war during the 50th year of the island’s independence.

But political analysts — and most people — expect the political and economic situation to worsen. “There is going to be an overall deterioration in 1998,” says Dharmaratnam Sivaram, a well-known political commentator.

Colombo’s continued preoccupation with the elusive peace process will lead to further neglect of issues like the high cost of living, worsening the problems of ordinary people, most observers warn.

Says former finance minister Ronnie de Mel: “Some people in the government seem to place their faith in a military solution; others in a military-cum-political solution. But nobody seems to know exactly where they are heading.”

The ruling People’s Alliance (PA) has completed drafting a new constitution meant to solve the country’s ethnic problem. On the war front, it is pushing the Tamil rebels deeper into the jungles and gaining control of more territory.

Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte, who reflects Kumaratunga’s view that the rebels must be defeated before talking peace with them, says an ongoing seven-month operation to re-take a strategic highway in the north will be completed by Feb. 4 — the day Sri Lanka won independence from British rule.

Government troops are battling the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) who have since 1983 stepped up their campaign for an independent homeland for minority Tamils. More than 50,000 combatants and civilians have died in the conflict and two previous rounds of peace talks with the rebels have failed.

Kumaratunga, whose charisma and untainted past were the key to PA wins at the parliamentary and presidential polls in 1994, sees the twin approach of fighting the LTTE and preparing a peace package at the same time, as a way out of the political quagmire.

In her favour is the main opposition United National Party (UNP) plan to submit its own peace proposals by end-January, after vacillating for a long time while sitting on a parliamentary committee comprising politicians from all sides — which spent at least three years to discuss government proposals.

“The peace package is on the right track with the PA and the UNP getting together at last,” observes Jehan Perera, media director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, a private body which is working towards promoting peace in the country.

Kumaratunga herself is pleased with developments in the UNP. “I am now gratified to hear that after more than two years of deliberations at the level of the parliamentary select committee, the UNP has at last appointed some kind of a committee to formulate their own proposals …,” she told the ‘Weekend Express’ newspaper in an interview last week.

But she warns that “if the UNP continues to be obstinate, then it would be essential that we seek other ways of implementing our political package that addresses the question of power-sharing between the centre and regions.”

The government is considering holding a non-binding referendum to seek the people’s support for its peace package, if the UNP decides to oppose it in Parliament, where a two-thirds majority is required for any constitutional reform to go through.

Government planners feel that with most Sri Lankans yearning for peace, it could successfully canvass the proposals — aimed at devolving political and administrative power to the regions — at a referendum.

But De Mel, a parliamentarian and high-ranking member of the opposition UNP, says an attempt to force a solution with a referendum could lead to a constitutional and political crisis and even a period of political violence in the country.

“This is something all of us should be careful about,” he said. Apart from the political standoff, the economy is a worrying factor while a growing element of government corruption is ruining public confidence.

“The people are sorely affected by the cost of living and high prices which, for example, are far higher than the prices in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh where ordinary items of food, clothing, travelling, etc., are concerned,” De Mel said.

He said none of the big infrastructure schemes, for ports, airports, roads, power, irrigation, and tourism, has taken off while military spending would rise this year to 730 million dollars compared to 180 million dollars in the late 1980s.

Government ministers including Deputy Finance Minister Gamini Lakshman Peiris reject this argument saying the economy is now on track with inflation and unemployment down and the country’s privatisation programme — where it is disposing off public assets that are unviable under state control — on schedule.

Government economists say the previous regime’s mismanagement of the economy, led to a delay in putting the economy right. “We had to spend a lot of time putting the fundamentals back on track, after that disastrous period, before proceeding with the real development,” one government economist noted.

However allegations of corruption, dubious tenders and political favouritism are dogging this government too and questions about the integrity of President Kumaratunga and her team are being raised.

The purchase of ships, planes, arms and ammunition is under a cloud; the sale of key government estates has been undervalued and other public utilities are being disposed off without proper evaluation, independent economists say.

“The tender system is being abused. Financial contracts are questionable. Her (Kumaratunga’s) integrity is being questioned. People say she is not solving any of our problems,” said Perera from the National Peace Council.

In his opinion, the war seems unending, the economy is not moving and there are few hopeful signs in 1998. Government ministers and military officials were not available for comment on the possible course of events in 1998, but senior army field commanders say they hope to open a government-controlled road to rebel-strongholds in the north from the south by February.

“We plan to open a new route to the northern town of Jaffna and use it as the main supplies route for the government,” said one commander involved in the ongoing Operation Jayasikuru (victory assured) which has been most expensive in terms of both losses of men and the military cost for both sides.

The army is presently battling to connect a short 10-km stretch of no-man’s land, against fierce rebel resistance. The military thinks a victory would force the rebels to either reopen peace talks with Colombo or accept the political package.

Political commentator Sivaram, a former rebel, predicts the army will open a precarious route to the north “as a cosmetic gesture to keep to the Feb.4 timetable”. “But will they be able to control that road, is the question,” he said.

In most of the government-held territory, the army controls the roads during the day. It’s anybody’s land by night. Sivaram also says the rebels will step up attacks in the capital and outside, as pressure mounts on them.

Eminent social activist Tudor Ariyaratne says ordinary people are not interested in peace packages or wars. “They have lost faith in all politicians and scholars and their political stances. To them the cost of living is astronomical. They are not interested in constitutional reforms and change.”

“I have met people living in villages near where the fighting goes on and they are not emotionally involved or bothered with intellectual exercises. They just want peace,” said Ariyaratne, whose community-based Sarvodaya movement is entrenched in thousands of villages across Sri Lanka.

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