By Fabiana Frayssinet
RIO DE JANEIRO, Jun 28 1998 (IPS)

Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso is keeping a low profile while the nation’s soccer team is battling for World Cup glory in France.

Cardoso was in France for the opening ceremonies but, on the advice of the spin doctors managing his campaign for re-election, he did not allow himself to be seen on television. Nor did he appear on film duriong Brazil’s opening games.

The only visible symbol displayed by the president – on the advice of his five-year-old grandson – is a tiny Brazilian flag in the presidential vehicle.

While a triumph by Brazil could improve Cardoso’s chances for re-election in October, a loss in the World Cup would come as a major blow, according to analysts and the president’s campaign advisers.

“No one will win the elections just because Brazil triumphs in the World Cup. But if the team is humiliated, the climate of disillusion could contaminate a campaign that is not experiencing its best days,” political columnist Helena Chagas wrote in the daily ‘O Globo’. “Marketing experts know that soccer and politics move emotions and mobilise passions, touching on the popular culture in different ways.”

Cardoso is not known for his deep knowedge of soccer football. In fact, long before the tournament began the president predicted that Uruguay would win the Cup in France. Uruguay, a winner in the past, however failed to qualify for this year’;s tournament.

Nevertheless, more even than any other Brazilian, the president must be hoping for Brazil to triumph as it did in 1958, 1962, 1970 and 1994.

Latest polls reveal that Cardoso’s main rival in the October elections, the Workers Party’s (PT) Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, who heads a leftist alliance, has closed in on the president’s popularity.

The polls were taken at a bad moment for Brazilians, right at the start of the World Cup which had been preceded by a defeat at the hands of Argentina in the temple of Brazilian soccer, the Maracana stadium, after a weak performance by the Brazilian national team.

Mauricio Murad, a sociologist who has specialised in Brazil’s strong soccer culture and the author of “From Head to Feet: Basic Elements of the Sociology of Football”, offers a cultural explanation for the cautions taken by the president’s campaign advisers. “I’m sure soccer does not alienate people, but it can be used by the population as a means of escape.”

Murad admits that Cardoso’s fate in the elections will not depend on how many goals Brazil kicks against its opponents. But he adds that,in a country where soccer is “a radical passion, losing the World Cup could bring to the surface problems that now are more or less concealed. Cardoso needs our team to win the tournament.”

The problems which have taken a backseat to soccer over the past few weeks were highlighted by the very opinion polls that indicated the president’s waning popularity.

Rising unemployment, fiscal adjustments adopted last November to confront the fallout of the Asian financial crisis, and the government’s difficulties in resolving social problems like the hunger caused by a severe El Nino-related drought in the country’s impoverished northeastern region were several factors mentioned as working against the president.

Political advertising agent Paulo Serra told IPS that the World Cup could “break the cycle of negative events” surrounding the president’s campaign. People focus their frustrations on the games, and if the result is positive “a new cycle of confidence will be generated in the daily lives of Brazilians.

“The tournament, wihout a doubt, is an element that draws the population into closer proximity with politics. I would recommend that the president come as near as possible to the people.

“But that can be really dangerous because it is a double-edged weapon: a victory would bring enormous satisfaction and would positively affect his campaign, but things could get even worse if Brazil is defeated,” said Serra.

With the president keeping his distance from the tournament, the opposition could “exploit” the issue, said Murad. “Lula is a big soccer fan. He almost became a professional soccer player, and I believe it is much more feasible for him to capitalise on the sport than Cardoso, an intellectual who unfortunately is far removed from popular culture.”

Lula’s campaign managers have apparently followed a similar train of reasoning. The PT’s new TV advertising campaign shows Lula standing on a soccer field, facing a cheering crowd, and then a match in which Brazil is playing against a team wearing grey uniforms – an allusion to the problems which supposedly have gotten the better of Cardoso.

“Brazil’s team is concentrating on marking Inflation, while neglecting the others,” says the voice-over in the ad. “Ah, Unemployment and Violence are closing in with a dangerous move…Watch out!…Goal!!…Gooooaaaaal against Brazil!!!”

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