By Suvendrini Kakuchi
TOKYO, Jul 10 1998 (IPS)

Raita Taguchi lost his job in one of Japan’s leading machinery companies six months ago, and is now bent on voting for any party but the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Sunday’s national parliamentary election.

“I blame the LDP for not doing anything to put Japan’s economy back on track,” said the 34-year-old worker who was the first to be laid off by his company. “Japan definitely needs a change for the better.”

Despite Taguchi’s determination not to support the ruling party, he says he faces a dilemma. “It is so difficult to decide who else I can vote for,” he explains. “That’s because I am just not impressed with the opposition.”

Indeed, Taguchi’s sentiments illustrate the public’s general mood on the eve of the July 12 upper-house election.

“Japanese voters are disappointed with their politicians who they believe are corrupt and lack vision and power needed to enact change. This could well mean a low voter turnout once again, leaving the LDP to win,” said Professor Akio Igarashi who teaches law at Rikkyo University.

Sunday’s upper house election, while not as important as the battle for the decision-making lower house, is nevertheless being closely watched because it can be a harbinger of crucial change in a country mired in its worst post-war economic crisis.

A big voter turnout will signify a desire for vital reform to a system that has become inefficient as a result of too much state control closely linked to bureaucratic and corporate power.

The system is such that despite Japan economic success, the country is still one of most expensive places to live, forcing people to pay twice or even thrice the amount their counterparts in other industrialized countries pay for products and property says Minoru Tada, a political analyst.

To many, reform means faster deregulation that will weaken cozy ties among those in the upper echelons — politicians, top bureaucrats and powerful industry — and bring in a better deal for the average Japanese.

“Japan’s political system is not tuned in to what people want because it is not politicians who make decisions but bureaucrats who run the country behind the scenes,” explains Tada.

The apparent lack of political leadership is viewed as one of the key reasons why the problem of bad bank loans amounting to 550 billion U.S. dollars has persisted to bog down the economy since the early nineties.

The call has been to force some banks to shut operations and take responsibility for poor management, clearing the way for an economic recovery.

But the government has not shown the political will to do just that because of objections from politicians and businessmen friends who are are loathe to reforming a system that has served their own interests for so long.

An energetic election against the current backdrop, writes the Yomuiri Shimbun, Japan’s largest daily, is needed to usher in reform in this system.

But this may not come to pass.

Analysts point out that if the LDP wins as a result of voter apathy, then Japan’s conservative system will prevail and Japan will not gain respect across the world.

“Asia in particular has been hard hit by Japan’s recession and will be watching the elections anxiously. The region will be disappointed,” explains Tada.

In the upcoming polls of the 252-member upper house, 126 seats — 50 to be chosen by proportional representation and 76 in prefectural constituencies — will be at stake.

If the LDP wins 69 seats, which polls indicate will be possible, it will recover a majority in the chamber and prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto will remain. The LDP is fielding 87 candidates. It now has 61 seats.

The opposition parties are fighting on a platform of economic reform. The strongest party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) led by perhaps Japan’s most popular politician, Kan Naoto, is expected to win 18 seats after fielding 48 candidates.

He is calling for a tax cut and more people-oriented politics. But support rates for his new party remain low at 23 percent last month. Bickering within the party, which some analysts say is partly due to Kan’s popularity, has weakened its debut in the political scene.

The Japan Communist Party, popular for its “clean” image is also seen as doubling its current six seats to 12. Kaoru Okano, professor of political science, explains the opposition has not been able to get its act together because of infighting and constant mergers and defections rendering them actually “homeless”.

“There is no attraction for the average Japanese to go to the polls. They are confused and wonder which politician is going to defect next,” he says.

Despite the faltering economy and cases of corruption involving the governing party, the opposition camp has failed to beat the LDP in six consecutive lower house by-elections.

Leading political analyst Minoru Morita says that if the LDP wins this time, the political situation will stabilize but at the same time the opposition will weaken, allowing LDP to remain dictatorial in the name of stability.

The traditional vote-getter for the LDP — the vast construction industry — is expected to come out strong for the party because they are the biggest beneficiary of the new stimulus package and the bank clean-up plan promised by the government.

The stimulus package promises more public funds for infrastructure, which translates to more business for contractors and jobs for workers.

This means those hoping for genuine reform may have to wait another day.

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