By Gustavo Capdevila
GENEVA, Jul 23 1999 (IPS)

Humanity has spent this century fighting wars – costing some 169 million lives in large-scale conflicts alone – but has yet to hit upon the structural causes of so many disasters.

From the late 1980s to the early 1990s, the number of humanitarian crises rose from an average of 25 to 70 per year, and most could be attributed to human decisions, said a research team from the United Nations University (UNU) this week.

When the origins of the most recent conflicts are debated, said the researchers, ethnic tensions, the fall of the Soviet bloc or the disappearance of international aid are usually mentioned.

While not totally discrediting such causes, the UNU team has concluded that humanitarian crises generally follow failed development, social and institutional policies, as well as “botched responses to initial crises.”

The study by the World Institute for Development Research (UNU/WIDER) mentions acute “horizontal inequality” between social groups in the distribution of wealth, government employment and social services as common destabilisation factors.

Conflicts also arise from the breakdown of political institutions and “the ensuing crisis of the state: the protracted worsening of economic conditions and external shocks,” says the report presented to the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) earlier this week.

The study rules out the dominant conception that crises arise from deteriorating environmental conditions, competition for non- renewable resources or structural adjustments.

Though these are important causes of economic shortages, there is no proof that confirms that they result in humanitarian emergencies, maintained Giovanni Andrea Cornia, UNU/WIDER director.

Econometric studies show that nations with stagnant and low incomes, and high inflation, are more inclined to enter into armed conflicts, said the institution’s co-director, Frances Stewart.

Policy measures for reducing inflation and promoting private sector activities may lower the probability of conflict.

However, some of the adjustment and stabilisation programmes must take into account the systemic problems of the most vulnerable economies, according to the study.

When investment projects are designed, the World Bank has tried to favour disadvantaged groups. However, this is generally not true of its economic advice at the national level, observed the UNU/WIDER.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank policy conditionality is “blind” in its economic prescriptions when it comes to problems of inequality, maintains the report.

The IMF and World Bank have been reluctant to impose pressure on governments to reduce military spending, says the study, giving El Salvador as an example.

The research rejects the importance that is often attributed to ethnic issues as a cause of conflict, saying the ethnic aspect is the ideological form, not the substance of the conflict.

At times, ethnic rivalries are fed in order to build support for political ambitions, as occurred in the 1980s conflict in the western provinces of Matabeleland, Zimbabwe.

The UNU/WIDER believes that Zimbabwe’s governing party stirred up ethnic antagonisms that originated after a disasterous drought in the region, with the final objective being the repression of its political opposition.

In her presentation before the plenary session of ECOSOC, Stewart mentioned private motives as a detonator of conflicts, which “consist of leaders seeking power, wealth and control of resources.”

“War is the intensification of competition for resources of the system,” affirmed Stewart, who is an Oxford University professor.

Private motives were dominant in the civil wars of Sierra Leone and Liberia, she said.

The participation of the private sector is also a frequent cause of armed conflicts, some through black market activities such as drug-trafficking, and some through transnational companies that make contracts with rebel groups.

For example, the international press says the rebel leader in Angola, Jonathan Savimbi, receives financing from multinational companies, said Stewart.

Another catalyst is foreign intervention, as most recent wars have been generously financed from the outside, she stated.

Enormous debts have been incurred to initiate and maintain wars. The UNU/WIDER study presented before ECOSOC mentions the case of the United States, which supplied military aid to El Salvador.

Rwanda received foreign aid until just before the bloody conflict began in 1994, which resulted in the deaths of half a million people. Foreign contributions also financed Liberia, and in the 1980s, foreign money went to Somalia.

The UN academic study recommends that foreign assistance be granted through long-term development programmes, which tend to reduce social injustices.

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