By IPS Correspondents
MOSCOW, Aug 26 1999 (IPS)

Russian troops seem to have gained the upper hand against Chechen rebels and Moslem extremists in western Daghestan, but a full victory in the northern Caucasian region is a long way off.

Though the bulk of Chechen-led rebels is withdrawing, they are believed to leave behind small groups of infiltrators capable of carrying out terrorist attacks. Thus Moscow could be forced to act against insurgents’ bases in Chechnya, opening way for a wider conflict.

“The events in Daghestan were caused by a well-calculated policy, which had been financially backed from abroad,” argues Vyacheslav Mikhailov, Russia’s minister of Federal and National Affairs.

“The Chechen extremists and their backers aim at changing the political map in North Caucasus, and Chechnya has become the base of international terrorism,” he said.

There were rumours that notorious international terrorist Usama Ben Laden has supported Chechen efforts and even mulled to move into Chechnya. This have sparked speculations about alleged Russian attempts to get foreign aid to combat international terrorism.

Israel’s Foreign ministry even came up with a statement dismissing reports saying that the ministry planned to supply Russia with intelligence on Islamic rebels in Daghestan. The ministry claimed these reports resulted from a translation mistake.

But – characteristically – rebel leader Shamil Basayev announced his men were moving into “phase two” of their operations – the removal of “Zionist” influence in Daghestan.

They also vowed to fight ‘Zionist’ Russian president Boris Yeltsin, when the separatists under the leadership of notorious Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev seized villages in the Botlikh mountain district near Daghestan’s border with Chechnya.

By 25 August Russian troops have regained control of all six mountains Villages captured by Islamic militants in Daghestan’s Boltikh district on 7 August. The Russians have carried out heavy bombing raids and artillery barrages, and the use of powerful vacuum bombs helped in driving the rebels from their hideouts.

But in spite of the encouraging official propaganda about the federal troops’ “successful” operations in Daghestan, they have been unable to seize full control.

Russian military commanders have claimed that about 2,000 rebels were killed in the conflict, while 59 government soldiers and officers died in combat. Rebel leaders put their casualty figure at 30, but all these claims cannot be independently confirmed.

Daghestan, made up of more than 30 language and ethnic groups in the Caucasus mountains and steppes along the Caspian Sea, has been the scene of increasing border violence with Chechnya in recent months.

Some 2,000 rebels infiltrated from Chechnya, which has had de facto independence since the end of the war with Russia (1994-96)

Representatives of a body called the Islamic Shura (council) of Daghestan appeared in the Chechen capital of Grozny and called on Chechens to support the struggle for “the liberation of the Islamic state of Daghestan from Russian occupation.”

The rebels are understood to belong to the fundamentalist Wahhabi movement, but have patently failed to gather substantial support among Daghestanis. The unnamed foreign powers accused by Moscow of backing the rebels are said to be Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan.

Basayev, the rebel leader, is considered a war hero by many Chechens. But he is also sought on terrorist charges in Russia. He reportedly lured the fighters into Daghestan promising to pay 100 US dollars a-day.

Russian commanders replied by raising the troops pay to up to 800 roubles (some 30 dollars) a-day – about half an officer’s monthly salary. The Russian military seem to have learned the lessons of their disastrous military campaign in Chechnya, where underpaid officers often sold weapons to Chechen rebels.

Russia asked Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov to crack down on the rebels operating out of Chechnya, but he claimed that an invasion from Chechnya’ was being simulated to deceive the Russian and international community.

However, the Chechen president does not appear to have much control over warlords like Basayev or even over members of his own government.

“The fighting in Daghestan is a struggle of Daghestani peoples for independence,” Akhmed Zakayev, the Chechen deputy prime minister vice-premier, reportedly said. “Chechnya can not afford not to support this struggle,” he argued.

The fighting in Daghestan became the worst security crisis in Russia since federal troops withdrew from Chechnya, after a truce was signed on 31 August 1996 in Khasavyurt, a Daghestani border town.

The peace agreement deferred the issue of Chechen sovereignty for five years.

The Daghestan’s crisis became a sort of litmus test for Russia’s strategy in North Caucasus, says Yegor Stroyev, chairman of the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament.

Other politicians sound more ominous, claiming that the Chechen involvement has made the 1996 peace deal between Russia and Chechnya meaningless.

“The Khasavyurt peace deal between Russia and Chechnya is now dead,” says Vladimir Zorin, chairman of the Nationalities Affairs committee of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament.

“They have failed to respect their pledges to disband armed gangs, and this has become the main reason for the fighting in Daghestan,” he said.

Kremlin officials have avoided hawkish rhetoric, however “In Daghestan the Russian troops did not fight against the Chechen people or against the Moslems, it’s not a ‘second edition’ of the Chechen war, Mikhailov says.

However, despite official pronouncements, fears remain that a new war in Chechnya could be used as a pretext by Yeltsin to declare the state of emergency in Russia and cancel the parliamentary elections in December 1999 and presidential poll in mid-2000.

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