By IPS Correspondents
PENANG, Malaysia, Sep 16 1999 (IPS)

If it were to be gauged solely by the number of people who still attend its rallies, then the ‘reformasi’ movement began by fired Deputy Premier Anwar Ibrahim a year ago may be considered to be on the wane.

But some political analysts say using rally numbers as the yardstick of the movement’s strength is erroneous. Indeed, they say ‘reformasi’ supporters are still very much around — and that the movement itself has evolved into something bigger.

“Clearly, the reform movement unleashed in late 1998 has already demonstrated quite extraordinary staying power,” said Rustam A. Sani, president-elect of the Malaysian Social Science Association, in a recent address.

Other observers add that what began largely as a pro-Anwar, anti- Premier Mahathir Mohamad protest has now become a broad-based movement for reform and change.

They also say that though the immediate outrage has subsided, the undercurrents can still be felt beneath the surface of everyday life.

Analysts even say politicians who may be writing off the ‘reformasi’ movement today may be bitterly surprised at the upcoming general elections that must be held by mid-2000.

To be sure, rallies organised by Anwar supporters no longer draw the same mammoth crowds as those held last September, shortly after Anwar’s ouster.

On Sept 20 last year, the pro-Anwar movement reached its climax when more than 50,000 Malaysians flooded Merdeka (Independence) Square in Kuala Lumpur to hear Anwar proclaim ‘reformasi’ and then demand the Premier’s ouster. It was one of the largest displays of dissent yet in Mahathir’s 18-year rule.

Afterwards, thousands marched to the Prime Minister’s residence where they were forced back by riot police. Hours later, however, a special police squad stormed Anwar’s house and hauled him into custody.

Angry though peaceful crowds filled the streets for months, protesting his ouster and his apparent maltreatment while in police custody. But baton-wielding riot police and water cannons dispersed the protesters, at times violently.

These days, such spontaneous protests have all but evaporated.

“I think the demonstrations (last year) were just a symptom of the anger over the way the system operates.” says social activist Rajen Devaraj, who was among the hundreds arrested for illegal assembly. He was later acquitted along with dozens others, after a prolonged court battle.

He adds, “There was also the expectation that if people had pushed hard enough, Mahathir would have been forced to resign and UMNO (United Malays National Organisation) would have been split.”

That didn’t happen. In hindsight, says Devaraj, it looks like UMNO, the dominant party in the ruling coalition, held together well. But then so has the ‘reformasi’ movement, despite the dwindling numbers at its rallies.

In truth, ‘reformasi’ Websites are still active — even though the initial frenzy in cyberspace has settled — and the opposition tabloid ‘Harakah’ continues to be widely read.

“The anger is still there,” says Devaraj, “but there are now a lot of avenues (for those unhappy) to express themselves.”

For instance, he says, last year, there was no keADILan, or the National Justice Party that is led by Anwar’s wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

Neither was there a united opposition front gearing for a general election. “There is a tremendous amount of focusing on the election,” he notes. “People see the election as the showdown.”

Thus, much of the energy that used to go into street demonstrations is now being absorbed into an emerging opposition alliance that is preparing for the elections.

The rallies of this alliance — made up of keADILan, the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the Islamic Party (PAS) and the Malaysian People’s Party (PRM) — have yet to have difficulty drawing crowds.

Despite ideological differences, these parties appear on the verge of announcing a common opposition manifesto, which would pave the way for what has been called a ‘barisan alternatif’ (an alternative front) to challenge the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition.

In the last general election, Mahathir’s coalition bagged two- thirds of the popular vote to collect five sixths of parliamentary seats, almost blanking out the opposition.

This time around, however, analysts expect a more even contest with the Barisan hard-pressed to retain the two-thirds parliamentary majority.

Other analysts even suggest the Barisan Nasional could suffer a shock defeat if the ethnic Malays, who make up half the 22 million population, desert Mahathir’s UMNO in droves.

Rustam says part of UMNO’s problem is that Mahathir himself seems to be unattuned to — or has even underestimated — the transformation in Malaysian political culture in recent years.

“In the 1960s political framework, which was still heavily suffused with feudal elements with all its attendant old-style patronage syndrome, there was little likelihood that the abrupt sidelining of someone like Anwar by the party leader would precipitate a crisis or any sustained opposition,” said Rustam in his address last month.

But these are the 1990s. Influenced by information technology and globalisation, the analyst said political and social culture has changed imperceptibly over the years.

Rustam said “the (reformasi) movement draws its strength and capacity to endure and even grow from a popular rejection of – a refusal to remain satisfied any longer with and accept – the political approach and styles of communication” of the feudal past.

People, he said, are no longer content to accept a mute politics of deference under the guise of ‘respect’ and ‘loyalty’.

In Mahathir’s favour, however, is the prevailing hesitancy among many Malaysians about change. These Malaysians, who feel they have too much to lose, credit the ruling coalition for the country’s relative political stability and inter-ethnic harmony.

Many Malaysians also look favourably at the Barisan Nasional’s diverse component parties, which have worked as a cohesive unit in the ruling coalition, in contrast to the disparate, untested opposition parties still trying to cobble together a workable alternative front.

Reformists, meanwhile, argue that the institutions of government have lost their credibility with power increasingly centralised in the Executive. They point to curbs on basic rights such as the red tape involved in organising a political gathering and the arrests of peaceful demonstrators.

They criticise the emphasis on privatisation and the ‘megaprojects’ that they say drain the country’s resources.

Yet even if the opposition loses badly at the next polls, activists like Devaraj believe ‘reformasi’ will live on. “I don’t think it will disappear,” he says. “People have been become more politically aware and once you become politically aware, I don’t think you will go backwards.”

Excerpt: