By IPS Correspondents
CHIANG MAI, Thailand, Feb 3 2000 (IPS)

As the dust settles from last week’s dramatic but failed seizure of a Thai hospital by radical Burmese students and Karen rebels, attention is now shifting to the future of the entire armed resistance movement based along the Thai-Burma border.

Weakened in recent years by a string of spectacular losses to the Burmese army and defections from within its own fold, the resistance seems to be on the verge of complete irrelevance.

Comprising largely ethnic minority groups demanding independence and some Burmese dissident factions, the demands of the armed resistance range from autonomy or independence from Rangoon, and the restoration of democracy in Burma.

Analysts say the Ratchaburi incident, in which 10 of the rebels were shot by Thai security forces, allegedly after they had surrendered, could be the final blow to any attempts by forces opposed to the Burmese government to win their demands through the barrel of the gun.

By antagonising the Thai government and military, the rebels have cut off a longstanding source of indirect, if not direct, support for their armed movement which is logistically heavily dependent on Thailand.

The rebels comprising a radical group called the “Vigoruous Burmese Student Warriors” and a breakaway ethnic Karen group called the “God’s Army” had taken more than 600 people hostage in a provincial Thai hospital on Jan 23.

They were demanding medical attention for their troops and Karen civilians injured in shelling by both the Burmese and Thai armies during recent fighting along the Thai-Burma border.

“It is not only fringe groups like the radical Burmese students and God’s Army that are likely to be affected by the hostage incident. There will be increased pressure on larger ethnic groups also to give up armed struggle,” says an Asian diplomat in Thailand.

As if on cue with these changing realities, on Jan 25, the day the Ratchaburi hostage drama ended, the 12th Congress of the Karen National Union (KNU) announced the replacement of General Bo Mya, its longtime president, by a civilian leader Saw Ba Thin.

Though even under Bo Mya the KNU has tried on previous occasions to negotiate with the Burmese government, such moves are expected to get a new impetus under Ba Thin, who is considered the ideologue within the KNU leadership.

The KNU, which more than 50 years ago was the first of the ethnic minority groups in Burma to revolt against centralised rule by Rangoon, is the largest of the armed rebel movements still technically at war with the Burmese army.

Most other ethnic rebel groups, except breakaway groups of Shan and Karenni minorities, have signed ceasefire agreements with the Burmese military regime in recent years.

“I think it’s time for both sides to stop the loss of flesh and blood and use our resources for the well-being of our people,” Ba Thin told Thai media soon after his election as KNU president.

The KNU and Rangoon have held many rounds of talks to end fighting but little progress has been made because there are some conditions which are not acceptable, he said.

While the Burmese government wants the KNU to lay down arms, the latter wants a ceasefire without being disarmed and a demilitarised zone. The Karens also want an autonomous area and representatives in the central government. None of these demands are acceptable to Burma.

In 1997 Burmese troops overran the KNU’s longtime headquarters at Manerplaw along the Thai-Burma border and since then, the organization has kept its armed movement in low gear.

Pressure on the KNU to drop some of its demands is expected to increase due to the changing attitude of the Thai government toward the movement following the Ratchaburi incident. Though Karen leaders insist that they did not play any role in the hostage-taking incident, members of the God’s Army

group are a breakaway faction from the KNU and set up with material and personnel support from some of its senior members.

As for the radical student groups, like the Vigorous Buremse Student Warriors attempting to take on the Burmese army with arms, the latest blow to their movement is likely to be decisive.

More than a decade ago following the brutal state crackdown on the Burmese pro-democracy movement in 1988, fleeing students had

set up their own army in bases near Thailand. But they gave up armed struggle after seeing through the futility of a few hundred young soldiers fighting the several hundred thousand strong Burmese Army.

“The problem with the anti-Rangoon armed struggle is that, it is too weak and ill-organised an effort to make any real dent on the Burmese government,” says a veteran pro-democracy activist working among Burmese refugees along the Thai-Burma border.

The activist says that it is more efficient to concentrate on the political and social aspects of the struggle against the military junta than waste time, effort and precious lives with the gun.

However, the charm of armed revolt is likely to persist within the Burmese resistance for some time simply due to the growing frustration among dissidents over the slow pace of progress in their struggle for democracy in Burma.

Both the Vigourous Burmese Student Warrior group and God’s Army, observers point out, were born out of a feeling among some sections that the mainstream anti-Rangoon movement is “not doing enough”.

In a letter to a friend just prior to the seizure of the Thai hospital, Yeh Ti Ha, believed to be a leader of the radical students, wrote” “I see a sansara (cycle) of meetings, conferences, and publishing newsletters, under

the name of revolution, again and again without improvement. It is not a real revolution.”

The letter went on to say, “I support Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s non-violent means, because if she succeeds, there would be no bloodshed. But we do not want to sit and wait in order to see the change. We want to do something significant which will catch the world’s attention to push for change and save our motherland from the darkness as soon as possible.”

This is a sentiment that is likely to live on until the Burmese movement achieves more success than it has in the past decade.

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