By Feizal Samath
COLOMBO, Feb 7 2001 (IPS)

As Sri Lanka marked 53 years of freedom from British colonial rule this month, the country is feeling the economic and human toll of the 17-year-old conflict between the government and Tamil Tiger rebels seeking their own homeland.

A new study, released just before independence celebrations Feb. 4, revealed that the island nation has already lost billions of dollars in lost revenue, economic growth and human misery due to ethnic conflict, which is already among the world’s longest-running internal conflicts.

If not for this war , Sri Lanka’s economy would have grown by at least seven percent or more compared to the average 4-5 percent now, noted the study carried out by the MARGA Institute, the country’s oldest economic and social research agency.

The report titled ‘Economic, Social and Human Cost of the War’ between the 1983 to 1998 was commissioned by the National Peace Council (NPC), a Norwegian-backed peace group and funded by world peace institution, International Alert of Norway. The research team for the report was led by retired civil servant and activist Godfrey Gunatillake.

The release of the report, just before the Feb. 4 independence day celebrations, also coincided with the visit of Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim.

He met with President Chandrika Kumaratunga and other leaders in a bid to restart peace talks, which have not been held since early 1995 with Tamil rebels, who started their battle for a separate homeland in 1983 and accuse the majority Sinhalese community of discrimination. Up to 60,000 people are said to have died in the conflict.

Kumaratunga, in a nationwide address on Feb. 4, said the Tamil rebels showed signs of resuming negotiations with the government.

The study, which gives insight into a country that should have been with buoyant economic growth comparable to that of the Asian tiger economies and not what it is now, said direct military spending by both the government and Tamil Tiger rebels totalled 295 billion rupees (3.2 billion U.S. dollars) while additional war expenditure by the government amounted to 213 billion rupees (2.31 billion dollars).

A further 40 billion rupees (4.34 billion dollars) was spent on law and order between 1983 and 1998 while other war-related spending by the rebels reached 42 billion rupees (4.5 billion dollars), according to 1998 prices.

While the study by the MARGA Institute is consistent with a report published by the semi-government Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) more than a year ago, its research goes far beyond statistics and touches on human misery and its possible cost.

Such a cost is incalculable given the magnitude of the deaths and extent of human suffering, the MARGA report noted.

“The human suffering cannot be measures in terms of cost. It’s very tragic,” observed Gunatillake, author of the report. He said he spent sleepless nights after listening to tapes and tapes of interviews with victims who spoke of the horrors of the war.

“War is the single most important factor that has held back an economy that should have done well otherwise,” he said.

The report said that the actual value of destroyed and damaged property was estimated at 137 billion rupees (1.48 billion dollars) and the total of lost output in the country’s north and the east, most affected by the conflict, at 273 billion rupees (3 billion dollars). The rebels are demanding a separate state in the country’s northern and eastern regions.

The cost to Sri Lanka’s economy due to the loss of human capital professionals and others migrating was a cumulative 112.5 billion rupees (1.22 billion dollars) added the new report. Thousands of people have either fled to the west or sought jobs abroad as professionals due to the uncertain situation in the country.

Lost earnings from the tourism industry totalled 200 billion rupees (2.17 billion dollars) with a value- added net loss of 120 billion rupees (1.30 billion dollars) when foreign investment in the region of 1 billion dollars could have come into the country if not for the war, the study noted.

Dr Sumanasiri Liyanage, an economist and political scientist attached to Sri Lanka’s University of Peradeniya, believes the biggest challenge facing the country is if and when the war ends. “The process of reconstruction and rehabilitation would be a tremendous challenge and whether it would take 10 years, 20 years is anybody’s guess, to restore normalcy.”

He says figures do not reflect the actual loss of production in the strife-torn north and east. Liyanage adds that some official figures in 1999 showed the government spent 50 billion rupees or half a million dollars while the rebels spent 39 billion rupees (423 million dollars) on the war, which works out to “12 percent of the country’s gross domestic product going into an unproductive sector.”

The report put to estimated number of deaths due to the conflict at 50,000 to 60,000 up to 1998.

It said more than 10,000 to 15,000 soldiers and many more civilians and Tamil Tiger rebels were disabled, and 800,000 people displaced due to the war. The report cited estimates saying 30,000 soldiers and rebels alone have died, a figure that implies 30,000 families have experienced the death of a young family member.

Widows and female-headed households have increased over the years and this group is very vulnerable.

“Society looks on us with a strange eye. Always they would like to see something wrong in us, whether we go to school to buy schoolbooks for our children or medicines for an illness. Even the ‘baas’ (builder) who comes to do some work in our house,” said a woman whose husband died when rebels blasted the country’s Central Bank in the heart of the capital in 1996.

One young wife complained of other negative consequences of her husband’s death, since people often regard her as an omen of misfortune. “Everywhere where I go I feel society excludes me,” she told researchers.

The report adds that children have likewise been brutalised by the war.

“We do not have any toys to play with, so we make a gun out of some sticks and that is how we play. I can dismantle my father’s T-56 rifle. Sometimes my father tells me to clean his gun. Now I am quite skilled at dismantling and re-assembling the gun. My main ambition is to join the army,” one child living in a conflict area, was quoted as saying.

The study said the direct financial cost of the war was making the task of macro-economic management increasingly difficult. “The loss of economic opportunities is preventing the economy from moving to a path of higher growth essential for solving the urgent problems of unemployment, persistent poverty and malnutrition,” it said.

The exigencies and demands of the war are reducing Sri Lanka’s capacity for good governance, the report concluded.

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