By Feizal Samath
COLOMBO, Mar 1 2001 (IPS)

Britain’s decision to put Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tigers on its list of terrorist groups, is unlikely to spoil efforts to restart peace talks with the ethnic rebels, say political analysts.

On Wednesday, Britain placed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) on a list of terrorist organisations. The move came 10 days after the coming into force of a law, which has banned such groups from promoting their cause and raising funds in Britain.

It is similar to the ban imposed on the LTTE by the United States some years ago. The LTTE is among a handful of insurgent groups with offices and fund raising projects in Britain.

An overjoyed Colombo welcomed the decision. However, both the government of the Indian Ocean island nation and the rebels, Thursday reiterated their desire to hold peace talks, which are expected to start in the next few months.

The government’s chief spokesman said the ban was unlikely to affect efforts to start the peace talks.

“It is a fantastic decision, but I don’t think it would affect the peace process,” Ariya Rubasinghe, director-general of media at President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s office, told IPS.

Tamil Tiger spokesman Anton Balasingham, who is also the group’s chief negotiator, said in a statement issued through the rebel’s office in London, that the LTTE was disappointed with the ban.

But he noted that “irrespective of the British ban, the Tamil Tigers would continue with the peace process and co-operate with the Norwegian facilitatory efforts.”

Sri Lankan president Kumaratunga too has said the peace talks could go ahead without a truce like the Northern Ireland peace process. She noted that talks with the rebels were likely to begin as early as May this year.

More than 65,000 people have been killed in the 18-year-old ethnic violence. The Tigers are fighting for a separate home for Sri Lanka’s minority Tamil people.

In the past few months, government troops, backed by new weapons, planes and ships, have slowly begun regaining territory lost to the rebels a year ago, in the north.

Norway is trying to bring the two sides together for peace talks, which were last held six years ago.

Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim has been shuttling between Oslo and Colombo over the past year. He was expected in Colombo again early March.

Solheim met the elusive LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran last year and diplomatic sources said another meeting was likely. The Norwegian envoy has also met London-based Balasingham on at least three occasions.

Oslo has proposed a ‘memorandum of understanding’ between the two sides to start confidence-building measures that would lead to talks.

Tese measures include easing restrictions on the supply of some essential and non-essential items to rebel-held areas. The government wants the rebels to stop attempts at political killings and free government soldiers in their captivity.

Diplomats here, who did not want to be identified, said the proposed memorandum is expected to be monitored by representatives of a group of countries, including Britain and the United States.

According to Jehan Perera, media director at the National Peace Council, a Norwegian-backed non-governmental organisation (NGO) working for a peaceful solution to the ethnic conflict, the ban was unlikely to change the ground situation as far as the rebels are concerned.

“I don’t think this would impact on the rebel’s military capabilities and the ground realities in the short to medium term. It may have some impact on the long term,” he said.

But he added that the ban has made it harder for the rebels to go back to war.

“The British move would put pressure on other European countries to do the same and that would have a serious impact on the LTTE’s overseas operations,” he said.

This would strengthen the government’s hand in the peace process, Perera said. Thousands of Sri Lankan Tamil people live in Europe and North America.

Some political analysts expect the British ban to be more effective than that imposed by the United States.

The circumstances now are different and the rebels are finding the going tough in the face of the military’s superior fire-power, they point out.

“The rebels appear to be in a more difficult position now,” said Perera. Their twice-extended ceasefire offer shows for the first time in many years, that the rebels favour a peace option, he said.

However, Ketheesh Loganathan, an expert commentator on Tamil affairs at the Centre for Policy Alternatives in Colombo, did not think the LTTE was in a disadvantageous position.

“Situations can vary and a difficult situation now could turn into an advantageous position in a few months. In that context, I don’t think the LTTE is in a disadvantageous position now,” he said.

He noted that in the past few months, the rebels have been making pro-peace statements and meeting civil society groups.

A group of influential Buddhist and Christian priests met LTTE leaders in the rebel-held northern Wanni region late February.

They were told that the LTTE was not pushing the “separate state” agenda and was prepared to consider a meaningful devolution of power.

The LTTE chief, in a public speech in November 2000, said the Tigers would be compelled to revert to the ‘Tamil Eelam’ (homeland) struggle if the government did not respond to their peace initiatives.

Analysts interpreted this as an indication that the Tigers were now ready to look at options other than the military one.

“I think the Tigers, in the past few months at least, have been looking at other forms or methods of struggle than fighting,” said Loganathan.

He added that the rebel’s strategy had changed in recent months from demanding a separate state, to negotiation and peace talks to achieve substantial devolution of power for the Tamil community.

Late February, the LTTE extended for the third consecutive month, a unilateral ceasefire and urged the Sri Lankan government to respond positively.

The government has so far refused to reciprocate the offer, accusing the rebels of always using a truce as a cover to re-arm themselves. The government insists that it is ready to hold talks without a ceasefire.

In another significant late February development, an influential government minister claimed that the rebels had agreed to all the government conditions for peace talks.

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