By Suvendrini Kakuchi
TOKYO, Apr 24 2001 (IPS)

In a move that showed public opinion winning over deep-rooted political loyalties, Junichiro Koizumi, a reformist former cabinet minister, was elected head of Japan’s powerful Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Tuesday, making him the next prime minister.

“It was a stunning victory but not unexpected,” says political analyst Minoru Morita. “The election stems from overwhelming public support for Koizumi, a development the LDP could not ignore for its own survival.”

Koizumi, 59, defeated early favourite former prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, by winning 298 out of the total 487 votes among the LDP rank-and-file.

“I was able to win strong support from many party members and lawmakers by saying ‘Change the LDP, change Japan’,” said Koizumi, who will be named prime minister on Thursday, succeeding the unpopular Yoshiro Mori.

His victory is expected to boost the conservative LDP’s sagging popularity in the Upper House elections slated for July.

Analysts note the LDP’s desire for a comeback in the Upper House — where it is the minority — as the reason members ditched Hashimoto, the head of a larger faction within the LDP.

Noted for his passionate and outspoken style, Koizumi has long called for an end to faction-based politics in favour of a new system where the prime minister is elected by popular vote.

People expect him to exert strong leadership and reform the LDP, which is packed with stodgy, corrupt old politicians, explains Morita.

Support from mainly younger LDP politicians helped Koizumi take 123 of the 141 votes allotted to the LDP’s 47 regional chapters. Hashimoto took just 15.

Analysts note that even in conservative chapters, such as Saga prefecture in southern Japan, where the principle of loyalty is rarely challenged, Koizumi garnered 7,973 votes compared to Hashimoto’s 6,917 from LDP members.

Koizumi’s popularity among the grassroots stems from their overwhelming desire for a change in the way the government has been running its affairs.

Public bitterness is an offshoot of the long recession, accompanied by a never-ending series of ugly scandals that has highlighted rampant bid-rigging, bribe-taking among senior LDP politicians.

“I am so sick of the LDP. So I will watch Koizumi carefully,” says 35-year-old businessman Joyu Harada.

Indeed, the politician’s recent statements to the press reveal a fresh approach.

In a marked departure from the old LDP style, Koizumi promised to appoint more women to his Cabinet.

He says his selection of ministers will be based on ideas, not on factionalism, as is the norm, and has also promised to take as his financial advisors, top-rate performers from the private sector.

Still, analysts point out the going will be tough for Koizumi. “If he really means reform he should have left the LDP which is what would have really shaken things up,” explains Morita.

Nobody but Koizumi himself seems be more aware of the uphill struggle he faces. “The going was easy till now. From now on I will be facing the real test,” he told his supporters after his victory.

He was referring to the huge task of reforming the system that plays a crucial role in the survival of his party.

In a warning of the struggle ahead, the Japanese press reports that Koizumi is currently negotiating with New Komeito and New Conservative Party in an effort to preserve the ruling coalition.

The unpopularity of the coalition is another weak point for the LDP. There is some pressure from within the LDP for Koizumi to break the link.

The share market, while rising 0.20 percent, is not exactly jumping for joy. The benchmark 225-issue Nikkei index plunged 312.23 points at one point this morning.

There is a wait-and-see approach. If the new Cabinet is filled with reform-minded politicians, then foreign investors will be emboldened to continue buying Japanese equities, says Ken Landon, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo.

Political analysts expect Koizumi’s reign to be a crucial period for Japan. Some observers predict a break within the LDP and the birth of a new political party in time for national elections.

“Whatever the scenario, there is no doubt Koizumi spells a welcome change. The deepest hope for the Japanese is the new Koizumi era will not end like the bang of a firecracker but bring in much wanted change in the nation,” says one observer.

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