By Suvendrini Kakuchi
TOKYO, Jul 6 2001 (IPS)

Japan continues to send a series of mixed signals on its position on ratifying the Kyoto protocol on climate change, an international agreement whose survival now heavily depends on Tokyo.

These signals are being watched by many Japanese who expect Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to show the political will to make reforms in foreign policy, just as he has been a maverick in local politics.

They are also being observed by the United States, which jettisoned the accord earlier this year and Europe, which says it can go on without Washington and wants Tokyo to support it.

But Koizumi’s remarks during his first international tour that ended this week — which focused on the first global environmental issue facing him — have not clarified Tokyo’s intentions.

Thus far, Koizumi remains reluctant to turn Japan’s back on its traditional ally, the United States, and throw its weight behind Europe that supports the ratification of the protocol.

In Paris on Tuesday, the final leg of Koizumi’s trip that also brought him to the United States, French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin also urged Koizumi to ratify the Kyoto treaty.

The accord requires industrialised countries to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels from 2008 to 2012.

But Koizumi was told by U.S. President George W Bush, at an earlier meeting at Camp David, that the international treaty is basically “flawed” and that the United States, the world’s biggest emitter, will not ratify the pact.

Washington revoked support for the Kyoto treaty, saying it was unfair to economies like the United States and did not have enough of parallel commitments by developing countries on cutting back on greenhouse gases.

In Paris, Koizumi told Jospin it was too early to give up trying to convince the U.S. to return to the treaty, but did not clarify whether Japan would ratify it without Washington.

Europe is pressuring Japan to ratify the treaty regardless of the U.S. position so that it can come into force next year.

Earlier in Washington, Koizumi stressed to American officials the need to adhere to the “spirit” of the protocol and said Tokyo would work on convincing the United States to still make it work.

Japan has to reach a decision by Jul. 16 when the fate of the treaty will be discussed at the sixth conference of parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Bonn, Germany.

The Kyoto targets will become international law if at least 55 developed countries, accounting for 55 percent of the industrialised world’s carbon dioxide emissions in 1990, ratify it.

To get the required number of ratifications for it to go into effect, the support of other countries that are big emitters of greenhouse gases — such as Japan and Russia — are crucial since Washington has opted out.

Japan accounts for 8.5 percent of carbon dioxide emissions and is behind the United States, which accounts for 36.1 percent of world emissions. The European Union is responsible for 24.4 percent, and Russia 17.4 percent.

In short, the fate of the Kyoto protocol now depends on Japan, one of the primary architects of the agreement, says political analyst Shigeo Matsui.

He points out in an article this week that Japan’s official stance has thus far been to strive to put the protocol into effect. “At the same time,” he writes, “Japan has maintained its position that participation of the United States is essential and this poses a dilemma.”

Experts say the roots of this dilemma lie in Japan’s post-war diplomacy, which relies heavily on the United States.

“It is a tug-a-war between Japan’s diplomatic base, which is its relationship with the United States and its multinational diplomacy that centred on the United Nations,” explains Matsui.

“Looking at Japan’s actions in the United Nations in the post- war era, cooperation with the United States has taken priority over the goals it has set for itself,” he adds.

Despite the traditional diplomatic backdrop, observers point out the changing trends in Japan could signal the impossible — change of heart in Tokyo.

“After all, Koizumi does represent reform in Japan,” says Dr Haruki Tsuchiya, a scientist and an a respected advisor to the Environmental Ministry. “I am holding the hope that at the last minute he could throw his weight behind Europe and tip the scales in favor of the Kyoto protocol.”

Tsuchiya, who runs his own environmental think tank, the Research Institute for System Technology. points out that such a decision will work in favour of Koizumi who is riding high public approval rates.

“There is a growing awareness among the public on environmental issues. A move by Koizumi is support of Kyoto will boost his popularity enormously and he is aware of that,” says Tsuchiya.

Indeed, environmentalists have deluged Koizumi with more than 6,000 faxes sent in by supporters urging him to “save the Kyoto climate treaty”.

Tsuchiya also points out that Japan has been working hard to decrease its carbon dioxide emissions. According to the government, these emissions grew 5 percent last year from its 1997 levels.

Tsuchiya also cites the recent success of solar cell panels that produce alternate energy. This market has grown to 110,000 kilowatts each year, recording a massive growth during the last three years.

Solar cells installed in roof panels and promoted through government subsidies produce 3,000 kilowatt hours in each panel — the equivalent of reducing 1 tonne of carbon dioxide emissions, says Tsuchiya.

Still, analysts point out the going is tough for Japan which now faces the task of reducing the equivalent of 11 percent reduction of its current emissions to meet Kyoto targets.

Japanese media reports say there is currently a clash of opinions between traditional industries such as steel and electric power companies that are reluctant to support global warming reduction, and new industries that are developing energy efficient technologies.

The Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, affiliated with the government, produced a report last week that shows rapid changes in Japan’s energy demand.

The report says oil accounts for 45 percent of the country’s energy supply and coal 19 percent. Estimates indicate a 2 percent fall each in oil and nuclear power, but a 4 percent increase in coal, whose burning for fuel is a major contributor to global warming.

As a result, analysts expect Japan to push emission trading with developing countries through the system of “sinks” using forests. Forests can reduce 3.7 percent of carbon emissions.

The U.S. also supports emission trading as an alternative to meet Kyoto targets by cutting down its own emissions — a method environmental activists want Tokyo to avoid.

“Not the best solution,” says Yurika Ayukawa, global warming expert at World Wildlife Fund Japan. “Japan can achieve the targets if it works hard to develop alternative clean energy sources and introduce high technology like hybrid cars.”

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