By IPS Correspondents
ISLAMABAD, Sep 11 2001 (IPS)

A visit to South-east Asia confirms the growing image problem that Pakistan has, even in those countries that have been its close friends.

Pakistan is now being presented as a potential trouble spot, a sort of ‘danger zone’, as part of what is perceived as a growing international problem that lumps together issues like “extremism, terrorism, fundamentalism”.

Apart from the United States, South-east Asian countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore are now talking in the same language and using the same issues that India has been using, identifying “cross border terrorism launched from Afghanistan and Pakistan” as a “security threat”.

Some examples of this include the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) 100-page report issued on Sep. 6, which links global demographic trends with politics and security. It said, “Pakistan seems to encompass the worst of everything”, ranging from political instability, Islamic activism to internal strife.

Likewise, during a Sep. 5 visit to Malaysia, Singapore’s Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew warned that “Islamic militancy is growing not only in Afghanistan but in Indonesia and Pakistan and East Asia must be wary of it, since our region could be vulnerable to such developments”.

He added that “Malaysians who fought in Afghanistan and trained in Pakistan are also involved in militant activities”.

The Malaysian government recently arrested 10 members of the ‘Malaysian Mujahideen Group’, and some media reports claim they had spent time in Pakistan, “where weapons and training camps for would-be ‘mujahideen’ are commonplace”.

According to Malaysia’s English newspaper the ‘New Straits Times’, the role of Osama bin Laden in supporting “Islamic militancy” in Indonesia was recently discussed by President Megawati Sukarnoputri and visiting U.S. Cabinet minister Robert Zoellick.

It also quoted the Indonesian deputy chief of army staff, Lt Gen Kiki Syahnakri, as saying: “Chances are high that in the next three years, we will fight terrorism, specifically international terrorism that enters Indonesia.”

If these are the emerging perceptions of Pakistan among its traditional friends like Malaysia and Indonesia, they point to what is clearly the number one problem in Islamabad’s foreign policy today.

But no strategy seems to be in place to understand or counter the problem.

It is perhaps no accident that Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is planning a visit to Singapore next month, probably as a follow- up to Lee’s remarks and also to rope in Singapore, Israel’s closest friend in East Asia, for a joint policy regarding “cross-border terrorism”.

Pakistan needs to be worried on this count because as it is, its neighbours and friends like China, Iran, Turkey and the Central Asian states have policies that are diametrically opposite that of its own on Afghanistan.

Matters are certainly not helped when American policy is wooing India on the one hand and presenting Pakistan in a certain light on the other.

Last week, American Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill in a policy speech in Mumbai spoke of Indo-American cooperation on “counter terrorism and collaborative efforts to ensure the uninterrupted flow of oil from the Persian Gulf”. His hints are obviously aimed at India’s elevation to the status of local policeman-cum-American surrogate in the region.

As for presenting Pakistan in a certain light, given the proliferation of conspiracy theories and the existence of a dependent mindset among Pakistan’s elite who are ready and willing to believe the worst about the country, the CIA demographic report is basically concerned with the potential political fallout for the United States of growing populations, especially the youth.

The CIA report says by 2020, Pakistan plus Palestine, Iraq, Yemen and Colombia will have the largest youth populations. In Pakistan’s case, the youth would be a “ready source of labour for terrorist groups”, it said.

The principal concern from the American perspective has been listed as a fear that “new waves of youth-inspired Islamic activism in the Middle East could limit Muslim governments’ ability to cooperate with the United States,” more so because the report candidly admits that the youth, unlike the older, traditional Pakistani elite, may be less amenable to accommodate American interests.

The report singles out Karachi, along with Lagos in Nigeria, as “particularly vulnerable megacities” where “internal stability is threatened by conflict between inhabitants”, although it says that Lahore too has been one of the world’s most strife-torn cities since 1989 and has a potential for unrest.

Pakistan needs to launch an effective strategy on this count.

First, everyone is aware of the nature and source of this image problem. General and President Pervez Musharraf himself has talked about it several times, most notably in his Jun. 6 speech, where he condemned extremism and terrorism.

There is, therefore, no need to reinvent the wheel all the time. If the military regime, with all the power and resources at its command cannot combat the problem, this will represent its biggest failure.

Even the revival of the economy is inextricably linked to law and order — otherwise no investor will come in.

Second, Pakistan should stop playing this ‘catch up with India’ game.

Pakistan has its own intrinsic importance as a key country in the most strategic part of the world that impinges on the foreign policies of the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and Japan.

Thus, its role would be vital in the resolution of key issues that are at the centrepiece of these countries’ foreign policies.

If India musters up more than 200 American congressman to write to President George W Bush to end sanctions, Pakistan follows up with more than 40 or so.

If former President Bill Clinton has to go to India for five days, Pakistan has to beg him to come, even if it is for five hours — and so the tussle goes on and on.

Islamabad should not be insecure about the growing Indo- American intimacy, since Pakistan’s own bond remains resilient and strong with China, the country that is the key to Asia’s future.

Finally, rather than relying only on Pakistani-Americans whose influence, in any case, is weaker than the much larger and more affluent Indian-Americans, Pakistan needs to widen the base of its support in the United States to include the broader segments of American society.

These include the 6 million Muslims in the United States, the African Americans, even Church groups concerned about India’s treatment of Christians or Sikhs and low-caste Hindus.

Rather than relying on the traditionally ad hoc, moment-to- moment and reactive approach they have toward any problem, Pakistani policymakers should give high priority to efforts to fix the country’s international image.

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