By James Hall
MBABANE, Mar 6 2002 (IPS)

Parallel governments, rival capital cities, martial law, unrest in the streets: the island nation of Madagascar has all the elements that easily combine into full-fledged civil war, but have not yet ignited in that combustible scenario.

“Nearly three months after December 12’s contested and divisive presidential elections, the only fatalities reported, and these have not been confirmed, are two individuals allegedly killed by supporters of the incumbent president, Didier Ratsiraka,” a source with the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) told IPS.

“But street clashes between Ratsiraka’s supporters and those of his rival Marc Ravalomanana have resulted in dozens of injuries, and raise concern that these confrontations may escalate,” he says.

This week the OAU is sending a “contact group” to the island nation off the southeast Indian Ocean coast of Africa in an attempt to find a way forward through a second-round presidential ballot.

However, the former mayor of the capital city and wealthy businessperson, Ravalomanana, may feel events have moved beyond the ballot box.

Declaring the December elections that reinstalled Ratsiraka “rigged”, he proclaimed himself president on Feb 22, staged a “swearing in” ceremony, and has appointed a cabinet.

“Anyone can appoint a cabinet, but Ravalomanana has managed to install them in office,” says Francois Perrin, a hotel manager in the capital Antananarivo.

Perrin says the public is defying a curfew set by Ratsiraka. Young men are “voting with their feet” by playing football in public squares until the early morning hours.

“Support for Ravalomanana has been given the name ‘Ravalomanana-mania,” Perrin says.

That Ravalomanana has been able to install his handpicked cabinet is due to the neutrality pledged by the armed forces, and thus far observed. This hands-off stance strikes some political observers as noteworthy, given Ratsiraka’s background.

The incumbent president wielded absolute power with the military’s help from 1977 to 1993, when under pressure from anti-government demonstrations calling for political reform he acquiesced to elections. He was voted out of office. The man who defeated him, Albert Zafy, was impeached, leaving the way clear for Ratsiraka to be elected in 1996 and 1998. He used these terms to reconfigure the national constitution, increasing his presidential powers.

This week Ratsiraka exercises his powers from his political home base, Tamatave, an east coast port that is Madagascar’s second largest population centre.

Last week, when rival Ravalomanana effectively took control of the capital, installing his cabinet in their ministerial offices without interference from the army, Ratsiraka declared Tamatave as the country’s new capital.

The OAU and the United Nations have not recognised the new capital, just as they have not recognised Ravalomanana’s claim to the presidency.

“Both our organisations take a dim view of election contenders who dispute results and then unilaterally declare themselves victors,” says an OAU official.

“In Madagascar the army is perceived not to be neutral because it has allowed Ravalomanana to in effect take over the capital and install his ministers. He also has a measure of popular support. But violence is inevitable and civil war possible. This is not the way for Ravalomanana to proceed, not when there are peaceful options to legitimately prove his support,” he says.

The OAU and UN policy is for contested elections to be reviewed, with re-elections called if initial balloting is proved corrupted, or as in the case of Madagascar, a run-off election can be held.

Political observers say a peaceful resolution to Madagascar’s election is important in the days before the region’s most hotly contested presidential election, in Zimbabwe.

“African democracy, and perceptions of the way the world perceives our election processes, depend on an outcome based on law, not usurpation,” wrote the Madagascar Tribune, one of Antananarivo’s independent dailies.

But Ravalomanana may feel he has already secured the necessary support for his presidency, as long as the armed forces remain neutral. The next test will be the response of the government bureaucracy: Will civil servants return to their jobs, and work under Ravalomanana’s ministers? If this support is forthcoming, Ravalomanana may see little reason to proceed with an election run-off.

Ravalomanana said in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) that he enjoys the support of 80 percent of the armed forces. Nevertheless, supporters erected barricades on highways leading to the capital to prevent army vehicles from entering with troops that might reinforce the martial law and curfew decreed by Ratsiraka.

In defiance of the martial law decree, and to bolster his claim of army support, Ravalomanana appointed General Jules Mamizara as his defence minister. Declaring his loyalty to the presumptive president, Mamizara said he would only follow orders from Ravalomanana.

“With the election dispute still unresolved, this technically constitutes a military coup,” said an African diplomat stationed in Antananarivo.

With the OAU, United Nations and Western governments refusing to recognise his presidency, Ravalomanana will have a more difficult time seeking international acceptance with perceptions of coup involvement.

“Perceptions are everything in tourism, on which our nation’s economy depends a great deal,” says hotel manager Perrin. “Visitors shun places thought to be unstable.”

With Antananarivo in chaos, the beautiful island nation with its unique flora and fauna awaits resolution to its unstable situation, perhaps through this week’s OAU counselling.

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