By James Hall
ANTANANARIVO, May 6 2002 (IPS)

Madagascar, the strife-torn Indian Ocean island nation of 15 million people, is by all indications poised to split into two parts unless another reconciliation meeting takes place soon.

The split, which looks imminent, comes two weeks after a peace deal brokered in Dakar, Senegal promised a solution to a presidential impasse that has divided the island.

It also comes one week after a High Constitutional Court’s recount of the Dec 16 poll results found challenger Marc Ravalomanana, 51, had won as he contended.

Three provinces, dubbed “Ratsirakaland” by observers of the quasi-civil war conflict, will ignore Organisation of African Unity (OAU) efforts to stop secessionist moves and remain loyal to former president Didier Ratsiraka, 67. He rules from the port city capital Toamasina.

“Ravalomananaland”, to use another sardonic neologism of the week, will include the central part of the country and the populous capital, where Ravalomanana, a millionaire dairy farmer, was once mayor.

Not only the OAU has been embarrassed by the collapse of the peace agreement, but also has Senegal’s president Abdoulaye Wade, who under OAU auspices hosted the Dakar conference, the only face-to-face meeting between the rival candidates.

Also embarrassed are presidents Laurent Gbagbo of Cote D’Ivore, Mathieu Kerekou of Benin, and Joachim Chissano of Mozambique, all of whom met with Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana to achieve what all parties agreed at the time was an equitable solution to the conflict.

One African diplomat summed up their chagrin: “It was an act of sheer cynicism for both men to sign onto a deal when ill-feeling still existed between parties so deep that they were paralysed from carrying out their promises”.

Upon their return to Madagascar, Ravalomanana did not dismember his self-appointed government, nor did Ratsiraka lift the blockade on the capital. Politically motivated killings continued, and this week stood at 65.

The hoped-for benefits of peace the island people expected failed to materialise, and jobs continue to disappear. Three quarters of 100,000 apparel industry jobs have been lost. The island manufactures primarily for the U.S. market under such favourable trade schemes as the African Growth and Opportunities Act.

Last year, Madagascar exported 208 million U.S. dollars in garments to the United States, up from 40 million U.S. dollars the year before. This year only a fraction of orders have been filled. Ratsiraka controls the country’s main port at Toamasina, not only prohibiting food, medicine and goods to reach the capital, but also blocking exports.

The blockade was put in place after Ravalomanana called a general strike to protest a finding by the High Constitutional Court that he had won 46 percent of the vote to Ratsiraka’s 42 percent. The court, which consisted of Ratsiraka appointees, ruled that because neither candidate won an outright majority, a runoff election was required. Ravalomanana rejected this, and declared himself president in February, to the disapproval of the international community.

Prior to the Dakar conference, three bridges were dynamited to enforce the capital blockade, perhaps by soldiers from the divided armed forces. Two more bridges were destroyed after Dakar, including on Friday the main highway-bridge at Behenjy, 40 kilometres south of the capital.

A new constitutional court, which Ratsiraka supporters objected to as being pro-Ravalomanana, announced its recount of the December ballots last Monday. Ravalomanana won his clear majority, with 51.46 percent of the votes, and Ratsiraka’s share was 35.9 percent of votes.

Ratsiraka-appointed governor of the southern province of Toliara, Jean de Dieu Maharante, went on national radio to declare, “We categorically reject the results of the presidential election announced by the High Constitutional Court, and have decreed 48 hours of mourning in our province for the death of national unity”.

De Dieu Maharante did more than lament the election results. On Wednesday, he declared the independence of his province from centralised authority.

Etienne-Hilaire Razafindehibe followed him on Thursday, governor of the western province of Mahajanga, who said the secessionist provinces would unite in a “Confederation of Independent States of Madagascar”. The governors of Toamasina and Toliara provinces, Samuel Lahaday and Jean Robert Gara, declared their provinces would be the confederacy’s third and fourth members.

This left the central provinces of Antananarivo and Fianarantsoa, where a pro-Ravalomanana governor was installed in April, as the remainder of the former sovereign state.

Madagascar’s former colonial power, France, lamented the provincial independence declarations as “particularly regrettable, and which certainly do not facilitate the search for a peaceful and democratic solution,” according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Francois Rivasseau.

From Toamasina, Ratsiraka demanded a transitional government as a solution to a potential national split. “In the national interest and in order to restore civil order, a transition government of national reconciliation must be put in place in strict adherence to the spirit and letter of the Dakar accord.”

Ravalomanana’s office responded by noting the accord called for a transitional government only if the constitutional court found a run-off election was required.

Ratsiraka told an OAU delegation hastily sent to the island that in his opinion the ballot recount was illegal. The delegates met with both rivals, and convinced Ravalomanana to postpone his investiture, planned for last Thursday, which would have triggered the implementation of independence moves by the breakaway provinces.

But that temporary agreement was all that was accomplished, and at the weekend the delegates left the island without finding a solution to the impasse. Ravalomanana announced his investiture ceremony would be held this week.

“The investiture will be on Monday because we want a religious service first (on Sunday) so everyone can pray for the ceremony,” he said. “After the investiture I will take power.”

Ratsiraka’s response was biting, “Mr. Ravalomanana and his partners have made one coup d’etat, and then a second coup d’etat on Monday.”

While his rival is being sworn in for the second time as president, Ratsiraka has convened a session of the 150-member National Assembly and the 90-member Senate at the northwestern province of Mahajanga. On the agenda is a way “to re-establish social peace and national concord.”

Said an African diplomat who has been monitoring the crisis since the December election, “Madagascar was one of the poorest countries in the world when it was whole. The chances of success as a divided island full of animosity are negligible.”

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