By Gustavo Capdevila
GENEVA, Aug 28 2002 (IPS)

The latest cycle of the climatic phenomenon known as El Niño, which will last until 2003, probably has nothing to do with the floods in Central Europe, nor with the severe drought in Southern Africa, but is indeed related to the heavy rainfalls in China, India and Bangladesh, say leading meteorologists.

El Niño, a warm Pacific Ocean current that flows eastward at latitudes near the Equator, tends to cause meteorological shifts worldwide. A new cycle has begun, but this time will not reach the intensity of its last manifestation, in 1997-1998, says the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

The advent of El Niño — whose Spanish name refers to the baby Jesus because it tends to appear in South America near Christmas time — has been hinted at by unusual weather patterns since May.

This prompted the WMO to advise preventive measures aimed at reducing the impacts of the massive rainfalls or severe drought that are the hallmark of El Niño.

Arthur Askew, director of WMO’s Hydrology and Water Resources Programme, says the threat of drought or floods has always been present, but these natural phenomena do not produce disasters in all cases.

It is when humans “put themselves in a vulnerable position that a ‘hazard’ converts into a disaster,” he points out.

The WMO official cited the floods that have been recorded so far this year in more than 80 countries, which have affected at least 17 million people and claimed the lives of 3,000.

Flooding worldwide this year has covered an area of eight million square kilometres, almost the size of Brazil. Material losses have reached 30 billion dollars.

In the case of the flooding of Central Europe in recent weeks, he noted that “thousands or millions of people are living in what are the natural plains of the river.”

Humans have encroached on the natural environment of the river, and the river takes it back, commented Askew.

Floods are natural events, he added. People put themselves in a vulnerable position that ends up turning it into a disaster.

Askew said these threats will continue, because flood and drought will occur again, noting that his colleagues studying the climate change issue “will tell us they believe that they will occur more frequently and in a more severe form.”

Disasters like the flooding in Europe and China will be repeated, “if we do not do anything to try to reduce our vulnerability” when faced with these phenomena, stated Askew.

Ken Davidson, head of the WMO World Climate Programme, said a “bridge” must exist between scientists specialising in meteorological questions and leaders who make policy decisions.

The WMO is complying with its mission as an international organisation connected to and coordinating the national services that monitor climate and predict trends like heavy rainfall or drought, said Askew.

It has served this function in the cases of the floods in Central Europe and China, and in the drought in Southern Africa. The forecasts it provided for the rainfall and flooding in Europe were very good, said the official.

The WMO meteorologists agree that the question should be: “Are countries making the correct long-term planning decisions?” and say that the international agency and national weather and hydrology services can help in calculating the risks of disaster.

The experts also believe it is not possible to establish a link between the current cycle of El Niño and the floods in Europe, but that such a relation can be found in the cases of current flooding in China, India and Bangladesh.

Studies indicate that El Niño has not played a significant role in the severe droughts that have spread famine throughout Southern Africa.

Its influence could be seen in the unusual characteristics of the summer monsoon in the Indian sub-continent, particularly the scant rainfall in the southern and central regions. In contrast, the northeast suffered excessive rains.

Indonesia and broad swaths of Australia were also hit by drought.

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