By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Sep 30 2002 (IPS)

Serbia failed to elect a new president Sunday and the second round on October 13 will see a decisive battle between President Vojislav Kostunica and deputy prime minister Miroljub Labus.

Kostunica and Labus both belong to the coalition of 18 parties that toppled former president Slobodan Milosevic two years ago. But they differ on reform policies. Kostunica is seen as moderate nationalist with conservative views, while Miroljub Labus stands for quick and even painful reforms in Serbia in the accordance with the demands of major Western countries.

These were the first elections in 12 years without Milosevic, who fell from power two years ago.

According to figures released by the headquarters of both the candidates and the independent Centre for Free and Democratic Elections, Kostunica won just over 31 per cent of the vote and Labus close to 28 per cent. The turnout was 56 per cent in an electoral body of 6.5 million.

“The elections were interesting also because of the phenomenon of Vojislav Seselj,” Srbobran Brankovic from the Belgrade branch of Gallup International told IPS. Ultranationalist Vojislav Seselj whose politics is often dubbed as fascist, ranked third among the 11 candidates, with 23 per cent of the vote.

“Seselj has the most disciplined voters” Brankovic said. “And many of Milosevic’s supporters, also very disciplined, followed the advice of their leader”. Milosevic, who is standing trial before an international tribunal for war crimes at The Hague had appealed for a vote for Seselj.

“Milosevic’s demand that our sympathisers vote for Seselj buried our party,” said Branislav Ivkovic, a senior leader of the once powerful Socialist Party, practically the communist party that ruled the country from the end of World War II to the year 2000.

“It is going to be an interesting race, but we have to see if the second round is going to be successful at all,” said Belgrade analyst Srdjan Bogosavljevic. “In the second round, the turnout may fall 10 to 15 per cent”.

The complicated mathematics of Serbian presidential elections dating back to the nineties and the era of Slobodan Milosevic, demands that the winner of a presidential race must have at least 50 per cent plus one vote.

In the elections of September and October 1997 the second round failed and the elections were annulled. Another round of elections months later just about succeeded.

“The situation in Serbia can now develop in two directions,” said analyst Ognjen Pribicevic. “The second round can fail due to a low turnout of voters, meaning that completely new elections will be held by the end of the year. On the other hand, we might see Seselj advise his supporters to vote for Kostunica on October 13. The man who ousted Milosevic (Kostunica) and the man who once shared the power with him (Seselj) could end up on the same side.”

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