By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Nov 26 2002 (IPS)

A fifth of Serb university graduates have firm plans to leave, and more than half the rest are looking for the first chance to go.. As young Serbs leave in search for a brighter future abroad, sociologists are calling it "the stampede of generations."

A recent survey conducted by the Centre for Research of Alternatives (CPA), a leading non-governmental organisation, at the universities in Belgrade and in the biggest southern town Nis, revealed that 20 per cent of university graduates already have firm plans to leave. Another 55 per cent are waiting for the first chance to pack up and go abroad.

"It was the young generation that voted out (former leader Slobodan) Milosevic from power two years ago," says Milan Nikolic, head of CPA. "More than 400,000 came of age by the year 2000 and voted against Milosevic, hoping for better future. Now they feel betrayed as no economic progress is seen in the country."

Milosevic fell from power two years ago after a decade of rule that brought wars, sanctions and poverty to Serbia. With a population of 7.4 million, Serbia is the bigger sister of tiny Montenegro in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Montenegro has a population of 627,000.

"The stampede of generations, as we sociologists called it, still continues," says Nikolic.

The last census in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia conducted in April showed that some 390,000 people aged between 18 and 40 left the country in the nineties. Of these about 30,000 had university degrees.

"The stampede of the nineties was explained by the fact that many people didn’t want to suffer under Milosevic’s rule, but this new stampede is a phenomenon that should worry people who are now ruling this country," Nikolic says.

Most of some 2,000 graduate students surveyed by the CPA cited the poor economic situation as the reason for wanting to leave.

"The answers given most frequently were like ‘I have no time to waste and sacrifice until things get better’ and ‘I saw my parents with college degrees become paupers in the nineties and don’t want this to happen to me’," Nikolic says.

The decade of Milosevic’s rule was marked by a destruction of institutions and values, with the middle class the first victim, sociologists say. Traditional institutions like parliament, judiciary or the police were turned into the tools of Milosevic’s dictatorship.

"One can have some doubt about the ability of the new authorities to solve the problem quickly," says Marina Blagojevic, a sociologist from the Institute for Criminology Research. "But this society, new politicians included, is still burdened with the recent past and shows no effort to turn towards the future."

Blagojevic herself left the country in the nineties and returned after the fall of Milosevic. She now thinks she made the wrong decision. "I see no prospects here," she says.

"It’s still the principle of ‘one way ticket’ with the young people who continue to leave," says Vladimir Grecic, professor at the Belgrade Law School. "No one can say that they are wrong if they look for a better future, but it would be nice to know that one day they would come back. That day is still far away."

Reforms in Serbia have had little effect on the living standards of ordinary people over the past two years. The country has survived on 1.5 billion dollars in aid. Its industry, idle through the nineties, was further destroyed by NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) bombing in 1999. Transformation into a market economy has been painful; many had thought that a simple change of regime could bring back the prosperity of the eighties.

"What is more worrisome is the fact that this is a country of the old," says Prof Gradimir Milovanovic from Nis University. "Instead of having 30 pupils in the classes in elementary schools, teachers now have half that number."

The last census showed that because of the migration of the nineties and traditionally low birth rates, 31 per cent of the population is above 60.

"Serbia needs an economic miracle to attract the return of émigrés or to keep the youngsters here in order to get on the road of development it left at the beginning of the nineties," Milovanovic says. "And that is not likely to happen in the near future."

Excerpt:

By Vesna Peric Zimonjic
BELGRADE, Nov 26 2002 (IPS)

A fifth of Serb university graduates have firm plans to leave, and more than half the rest are looking for the first chance to go.. As young Serbs leave in search for a brighter future abroad, sociologists are calling it “the stampede of generations.”

A recent survey conducted by the Centre for Research of Alternatives (CPA), a leading non-governmental organisation, at the universities in Belgrade and in the biggest southern town Nis, revealed that 20 per cent of university graduates already have firm plans to leave. Another 55 per cent are waiting for the first chance to pack up and go abroad.

“It was the young generation that voted out (former leader Slobodan) Milosevic from power two years ago,” says Milan Nikolic, head of CPA. “More than 400,000 came of age by the year 2000 and voted against Milosevic, hoping for better future. Now they feel betrayed as no economic progress is seen in the country.”

Milosevic fell from power two years ago after a decade of rule that brought wars, sanctions and poverty to Serbia. With a population of 7.4 million, Serbia is the bigger sister of tiny Montenegro in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). Montenegro has a population of 627,000.

“The stampede of generations, as we sociologists called it, still continues,” says Nikolic.

The last census in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia conducted in April showed that some 390,000 people aged between 18 and 40 left the country in the nineties. Of these about 30,000 had university degrees.

“The stampede of the nineties was explained by the fact that many people didn’t want to suffer under Milosevic’s rule, but this new stampede is a phenomenon that should worry people who are now ruling this country,” Nikolic says.

Most of some 2,000 graduate students surveyed by the CPA cited the poor economic situation as the reason for wanting to leave.

“The answers given most frequently were like ‘I have no time to waste and sacrifice until things get better’ and ‘I saw my parents with college degrees become paupers in the nineties and don’t want this to happen to me’,” Nikolic says.

The decade of Milosevic’s rule was marked by a destruction of institutions and values, with the middle class the first victim, sociologists say. Traditional institutions like parliament, judiciary or the police were turned into the tools of Milosevic’s dictatorship.

“One can have some doubt about the ability of the new authorities to solve the problem quickly,” says Marina Blagojevic, a sociologist from the Institute for Criminology Research. “But this society, new politicians included, is still burdened with the recent past and shows no effort to turn towards the future.”

Blagojevic herself left the country in the nineties and returned after the fall of Milosevic. She now thinks she made the wrong decision. “I see no prospects here,” she says.

“It’s still the principle of ‘one way ticket’ with the young people who continue to leave,” says Vladimir Grecic, professor at the Belgrade Law School. “No one can say that they are wrong if they look for a better future, but it would be nice to know that one day they would come back. That day is still far away.”

Reforms in Serbia have had little effect on the living standards of ordinary people over the past two years. The country has survived on 1.5 billion dollars in aid. Its industry, idle through the nineties, was further destroyed by NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) bombing in 1999. Transformation into a market economy has been painful; many had thought that a simple change of regime could bring back the prosperity of the eighties.

“What is more worrisome is the fact that this is a country of the old,” says Prof Gradimir Milovanovic from Nis University. “Instead of having 30 pupils in the classes in elementary schools, teachers now have half that number.”

The last census showed that because of the migration of the nineties and traditionally low birth rates, 31 per cent of the population is above 60.

“Serbia needs an economic miracle to attract the return of émigrés or to keep the youngsters here in order to get on the road of development it left at the beginning of the nineties,” Milovanovic says. “And that is not likely to happen in the near future.”

Excerpt: