By IPS Correspondents
DUBAI, Feb 7 2003 (IPS)

It is the season of festive shopping festivals in the Gulf, but uncertainty due to an expected war against Iraq is gripping much of the region – and worrying its army of foreign workers the most.

After all, they make up half the population in the Gulf, many of whose oil-rich economies rely on foreigners, working in hotels, companies, public relations to service jobs like domestic workers and taxi drivers.

It is the season of festive shopping festivals in the Gulf, but uncertainty due to an expected war against Iraq is gripping much of the region – and worrying its army of foreign workers the most.

After all, they make up half the population in the Gulf, many of whose oil-rich economies rely on foreigners, working in hotels, companies, public relations to service jobs like domestic workers and taxi drivers.

Caught between the lure of money and risk of war, the majority of the migrant labour force, which is Asian, is hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. To stay on or not is the niggling question for many, but one without a definite answer yet.

The mood in Kuwait – which was invaded by Iraq in 1990 and occupied for seven months before it was liberated by a U.S.-led coalition in 1991 – is perhaps the most worrisome.

The defence ministry has said that the entire northern part of Kuwait, close to 60 percent of the country, would be declared a ”military exclusion zone” from Feb 15. The interior ministry said the airspace would be completely closed once war starts.

Both announcements are making many feel like war has already begun.

”Though it is a completely different scenario this time, there is a high level of anxiety ” said Jamal Ahmad, an Indian and a general manager in a Kuwaiti bank. ”When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, it came as a surprise. The Kuwaiti government went into exile, there were no U.S. forces in the country and many foreign workers were trapped,” he explained in an interview.

”Now, the United States has spent months building up forces in Kuwait and elsewhere in the region,” he said. ”The local government is in complete control of the situation; foreign workers have been promised protection and civil defence drills are preparing the people for all eventualities, including a provision for gas masks in case of Iraqi attack with biological and chemical weapons.”

”Though one is inclined to believe that the situation will not be as bad as the last time,” Ahmad said, ”the very thought of war – even if it is being seen as short and safe – is unnerving”.

With 340,000 workers, Indians make up the largest foreign group among Kuwait’s 2.3 million people. There are about 100,000 Pakistanis, 60,000 Filipinos, 40,000 Indonesians and a good number of Egyptians, Syrians, Jordanians, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans.

The worst nightmare is of Iraq launching a counter-strike after U.S.-led forces attack the country, although most doubt it will come to that and consider a mass evacuation unlikely.

Foreign nationals who have stayed in the region for a few years and know the efficiency of the governments say they are willing to risk the war and its impact, but newcomers prefer to head back home.

”I came to the Gulf to make some money. If war spreads and it means earning at the cost of risking my life, I would prefer to go back to Pakistan, even if I earn only 30 percent of my present salary,” said Arshad Saleem, a travel agent working in Kuwait for just eight months.

But Sharath Chandran, an Indian designer in a publishing firm and a Kuwait resident for seven years, reacted philosophically. ”One can’t run away from death. If I am destined to live, I could survive even a Sep. 11-like accurate attack. If, however, I must die, I could do so falling off my bed. I believe in staying on.”

Many appeared ready to take a long vacation – even without pay – until normalcy is restored, if they could be certain of keeping their jobs.

But, ”looking at the number of foreigners seeking jobs in the Gulf, I don’t think my company will find it hard to find a replacement if I apply for long leave or resign. And, given the high rate of unemployment in India, I am bound to struggle for a job. Market factors suggest that I stay,” said James Varghese, an assistant purchases manager in a Dubai-based oil company.

”My only defensive action so far has been to transfer the little savings that I had here to my Indian account at the existing currency exchange rates. I don’t want to risk an adverse fluctuation on the value of my savings because of the impact of war on the economy,” Varghese said.

For others like Maria O Heyer, a Filipino attendant at a hypermarket in Dubai and earning 600 dirhams (165 U.S. dollars) a month, going home is not even an option because she cannot do without even a month’s salary.

”My family obligations override personal safety. My part-time employed husband, three children and my aged father may starve to death if I don’t send them money every month,” she pointed out. ”War or no war, I believe God will protect me.”

War is not the only threat. To many westerners, especially among 8,000 Americans and a similar number of Europeans in Kuwait, guarding against attacks by Islamists is serious a concern.

Six shooting incidents in four months, all targeting U.S. nationals, have heightened safety fears and the U.S. embassy has advised its citizens to consider leaving.

”Both are frightening aspects, but a terrorist attack appears more ominous because it can’t be prepared for or guarded – against unlike a war,” says Sandi Anderson, a housewife from the United States and a mother of two. ”My husband and I would wait and watch a while longer before packing our bags. There are a number of concerns to be addressed, including children’s education.”

Many of the 100,000 westerners in Saudi Arabia face the same dilemma after the U.S. embassy advised its 40,000 citizens to consider leaving for fear of attacks by Islamists, who have always protested the presence of more than 5,000 U.S. soldiers on Saudi soil.

However, the views of Bobby Schuck, head of a publishing firm in the UAE and a Gulf resident for over a decade, is typical of veteran expatriates.

”I’m not afraid,” he said. ”My family and I have no plans to leave a part of the world that we have come to love and have made our home for many years. This place is as much a home as Britain is.”

”Come what may, we stay put,” Schuck said, criticising the politics of the U.S. and British government in the Middle East.

Excerpt:

By IPS Correspondents
DUBAI, Feb 7 2003 (IPS)

It is the season of festive shopping festivals in the Gulf, but uncertainty due to an expected war against Iraq is gripping much of the region – and worrying its army of foreign workers the most.

After all, they make up half the population in the Gulf, many of whose oil-rich economies rely on foreigners, working in hotels, companies, public relations to service jobs like domestic workers and taxi drivers.

Caught between the lure of money and risk of war, the majority of the migrant labour force, which is Asian, is hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. To stay on or not is the niggling question for many, but one without a definite answer yet.

The mood in Kuwait – which was invaded by Iraq in 1990 and occupied for seven months before it was liberated by a U.S.-led coalition in 1991 – is perhaps the most worrisome.

The defence ministry has said that the entire northern part of Kuwait, close to 60 percent of the country, would be declared a ”military exclusion zone” from Feb 15. The interior ministry said the airspace would be completely closed once war starts.

Both announcements are making many feel like war has already begun.

”Though it is a completely different scenario this time, there is a high level of anxiety ” said Jamal Ahmad, an Indian and a general manager in a Kuwaiti bank. ”When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, it came as a surprise. The Kuwaiti government went into exile, there were no U.S. forces in the country and many foreign workers were trapped,” he explained in an interview.

”Now, the United States has spent months building up forces in Kuwait and elsewhere in the region,” he said. ”The local government is in complete control of the situation; foreign workers have been promised protection and civil defence drills are preparing the people for all eventualities, including a provision for gas masks in case of Iraqi attack with biological and chemical weapons.”

”Though one is inclined to believe that the situation will not be as bad as the last time,” Ahmad said, ”the very thought of war – even if it is being seen as short and safe – is unnerving”.

With 340,000 workers, Indians make up the largest foreign group among Kuwait’s 2.3 million people. There are about 100,000 Pakistanis, 60,000 Filipinos, 40,000 Indonesians and a good number of Egyptians, Syrians, Jordanians, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans.

The worst nightmare is of Iraq launching a counter-strike after U.S.-led forces attack the country, although most doubt it will come to that and consider a mass evacuation unlikely.

Foreign nationals who have stayed in the region for a few years and know the efficiency of the governments say they are willing to risk the war and its impact, but newcomers prefer to head back home.

”I came to the Gulf to make some money. If war spreads and it means earning at the cost of risking my life, I would prefer to go back to Pakistan, even if I earn only 30 percent of my present salary,” said Arshad Saleem, a travel agent working in Kuwait for just eight months.

But Sharath Chandran, an Indian designer in a publishing firm and a Kuwait resident for seven years, reacted philosophically. ”One can’t run away from death. If I am destined to live, I could survive even a Sep. 11-like accurate attack. If, however, I must die, I could do so falling off my bed. I believe in staying on.”

Many appeared ready to take a long vacation – even without pay – until normalcy is restored, if they could be certain of keeping their jobs.

But, ”looking at the number of foreigners seeking jobs in the Gulf, I don’t think my company will find it hard to find a replacement if I apply for long leave or resign. And, given the high rate of unemployment in India, I am bound to struggle for a job. Market factors suggest that I stay,” said James Varghese, an assistant purchases manager in a Dubai-based oil company.

”My only defensive action so far has been to transfer the little savings that I had here to my Indian account at the existing currency exchange rates. I don’t want to risk an adverse fluctuation on the value of my savings because of the impact of war on the economy,” Varghese said.

For others like Maria O Heyer, a Filipino attendant at a hypermarket in Dubai and earning 600 dirhams (165 U.S. dollars) a month, going home is not even an option because she cannot do without even a month’s salary.

”My family obligations override personal safety. My part-time employed husband, three children and my aged father may starve to death if I don’t send them money every month,” she pointed out. ”War or no war, I believe God will protect me.”

War is not the only threat. To many westerners, especially among 8,000 Americans and a similar number of Europeans in Kuwait, guarding against attacks by Islamists is serious a concern.

Six shooting incidents in four months, all targeting U.S. nationals, have heightened safety fears and the U.S. embassy has advised its citizens to consider leaving.

”Both are frightening aspects, but a terrorist attack appears more ominous because it can’t be prepared for or guarded – against unlike a war,” says Sandi Anderson, a housewife from the United States and a mother of two. ”My husband and I would wait and watch a while longer before packing our bags. There are a number of concerns to be addressed, including children’s education.”

Many of the 100,000 westerners in Saudi Arabia face the same dilemma after the U.S. embassy advised its 40,000 citizens to consider leaving for fear of attacks by Islamists, who have always protested the presence of more than 5,000 U.S. soldiers on Saudi soil.

However, the views of Bobby Schuck, head of a publishing firm in the UAE and a Gulf resident for over a decade, is typical of veteran expatriates.

”I’m not afraid,” he said. ”My family and I have no plans to leave a part of the world that we have come to love and have made our home for many years. This place is as much a home as Britain is.”

”Come what may, we stay put,” Schuck said, criticising the politics of the U.S. and British government in the Middle East.

Excerpt: