By James Hall
MBABANE, Feb 7 2003 (IPS)

As King Mswati III delivers his State of the Kingdom speech to define the course of his royal government this week, he seems one of the most secure heads of state in the world.

”The king does not have to worry about re-election. If Swaziland has human rights abuses, there is no way a superpower will invade to oust the regime. And the Swazi people are in love with their king, and they are strongly loyal to the monarchy,” admits political activist Harriet Shongwe, a member of the banned political group the Swaziland Youth Congress Shongwe and the rest of the Swaziland Democratic Alliance wish a constitutional monarchy like Britain’s, where the royal leadership are symbols of national unity under a democratic government. But if they are going to fulfil their mission, they have present a popular alternative to the king’s appeal with his subjects.

The Swazi people are in no hurry for change. King Mswati is so widely respected that the first demonstration in years to be called to protest his governance in his presence was abruptly called off.

”We were afraid if we picketed the Houses of Parliament when the king opened the session, we would be perceived as disloyal,” a source with the Swaziland Coalition of Concerned Civic Organisations told IPS on condition of anonymity.

The coalition was launched at the beginning of the year with much fanfare. The major founding organisations were respected business, legal and religious bodies, all pushing for democratic reform in sub-Saharan Africa’s last absolute monarchy. These included the Swaziland Federation of Employers, the Swaziland Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Swaziland Law Society and the Swaziland Council of Churches.

Last month, one of founding executives, Jan Sithole, secretary general of the Swaziland Federation of Trade Unions, told IPS, ”The first action we will mount will be a peaceful picket of the opening of parliament, even though it is illegal.”

Meetings and marches of a political nature have been banned for 30 years by the same royal decree that outlaws political groups opposed to palace rule.

Symbolic of the disarray the kingdom’s pro-democracy forces find themselves in was the last-minute cancellation of the demonstration at parliament’s opening. Sithole had also told IPS that a national prayer meeting to seek divine guidance for a peaceful political transformation in the kingdom would be held Feb 8. This, too, failed to happen. No explanation was offered by the democratic coalition for the cancellation.

Against this ineffectiveness stands the Dlamini aristocracy, in firm control of the country, from the security forces to national business interests. All large companies are partly owned by the royal conglomerate Tibiyo TakaNgwane, which places influential princes on the board of directors of sugar plantations, industries and even the Central Bank.

Mswati is expected to announce the delivery date of a long-awaited national constitution some time this year. In an attempt to show its willingness to accept democratic reforms, a condition set by the European Union and United States for the country to receive favourable trade benefits, the palace began the constitutional process in 1996.

The Swaziland Democratic Alliance, made up of banned political parties, labour unions and human rights groups, has rejected the constitutional effort for not being ”people driven”, and imposed on the nation. If so, Swazis have been quiet about any dissatisfaction. Even if the constitution proves to be roundly undemocratic, no political observer expects serious public opposition.

What is surprising is the continuing uncertainty about the contents of the constitution. The uncertainty seems at odds with the clarity of Mswati’s acceptance of the Constitutional Review Commission report two years ago. Prince Mangaliso Dlamini led a team that canvassed the country for views on the way Swazis wanted their government run. Mswati declared, ”the people have spoken”, when he blessed the commission’s findings that his reign should forever be secured against political opposition, which would remained banned, and royal institutions would be strengthened.

Because foreign envoys continue to remind Mswati that democracy is the price for entry into the modern world, Prince David Dlamini, who is writing a draft constitution, has said the document will contain a bill of rights.

No one can say how rights like free speech, free assembly and a free press will function in a country where political activity is banned. It is one of the many anomalies that await the resolution this year of the constitutional issue.

One thing is certain: King Mswati wants a unified, peaceful country as a backdrop to the Commonwealth SMART Partnership Dialogue Conference to be attended by commonwealth heads of state in August. The event is the year’s most prestigious for government.

Political observers are split whether this means the national constitution will be unveiled before the conference, allowing protests to die down before the event, or afterward.

But if the cancellation this week of both an anti-government national prayer meeting and the picketing of parliament are any indication, the palace need not fear embarrassment at the SMART partnership conference. At its first announced events, the democratic coalition lost its nerve, fearful of upsetting a conservative Swazi population by outwardly challenging their popular king.

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