By IPS Correspondents
MOSCOW, Mar 20 2003 (IPS)

Massive bombing and missile strikes on Iraq can trigger off a series of strong quakes in the entire region. However, this wave is not likely to reach Russia.

This forecast in an interview with Russian News Agency Itar-Tass was made today by chairman of the interdepartmental committee on seismology Alexei Nikolayev.

"On the other hand, if bombs start blasting near oil deposits which are evidently mined, the impact on the earth’s crust will rise dozens of times," the scholar warned. According to Nikolayev, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey can suffer most of all from "provoked" earthquakes.

However, weak tremors can be felt at greater distances. "Bombing raids on Iraq in 1991 caused quakes in the radius of over 500 kilometers from the epicenter of combat operations, while nuclear tests in India and Pakistan in 1998 ‘echoed’ in China, situated 1,300 kilometers from proving grounds," the scholar added.

He expressed confidence at the same time that strong underground tremors will not be felt in Russia in case of massive air strikes on Iraq. "The North Caucasus, the nearest of our quake-prone areas, is situated too far from Iraq," he noted.

The forecasts by the Russian scholar were echoed by deputy director of the Tajik Seismology Institute Anatoly Ischuk.

He noted that aftermaths of bombing and missiles strikes on oil and gas deposits in Iraq can trigger off earthquakes, including in Tajikistan and other countries.

According to the deputy director, it is improbable that explosions of bombs and shells, as they are, will have an impact on the earth’s crust if they are not A- and H-charges. At the same time, it is possible to forecast that bombing raids can result in dust storms. Moving eastwards with air currents, they will provoke changes in atmospheric pressure.

"Seats of quakes, ready to discharge energy, sensitively respond to such developments, and the process can start," the Tajik scientist noted. "Thus, it is possible to expect increased seismicity in the Central Asian region, caused by bombing raids on Iraq," Ischuk concluded.

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