By Marcela Valente
BUENOS AIRES, Apr 28 2003 (IPS)

Two candidates from Argentina’s splintered ruling party, former president Carlos Menem (1989-1999) and governor of Santa Cruz province Néstor Kirchner, will face each other in the second round presidential elections on May 18 if the official tally bears out the polls conducted at voting sites Sunday.

Shortly after the voting locations were closed, the exit polls conducted by four consulting firms were released, showing that Justicialista (Peronist) Party rivals Menem and Kirchner were the two top vote-getters in Argentina’s highly fragmented electoral panorama.

According to one polling firm, Kirchner was the winner, but three others gave the lead to Menem.

Initial results of the official count were then announced, based on 11 percent of the ballots cast, upholding the predictions of the three firms. The Interior Ministry reported that Menem had so far received 25.1 percent of the vote and Kirchner 22.4.

None of the candidates is expected to reach the 45-percent mark, or the 40 percent with a 10-point advantage, required under the Argentine constitution to claim the presidency in the first round of elections. This will be the first time since this mechanism has been in force that a runoff vote has been needed.

Graciela Romer, sociologist and director of a polling firm, noted that opinion surveys conducted last week already showed that Menem does not have a chance of returning to the presidency.

“Menem was the candidate with the most solid foundation but with the lowest ceiling for the second round,” she said, referring to the fact that, despite some strong support, there is widespread rejection of Menem among the electorate.

Many blame him for the laying the groundwork for the country’s current economic woes, as Argentina struggles to recover from its worst-ever economic crisis, and he has been plagued by corruption scandals, spending five months under house arrest after being indicted on charges of “illicit association”.

Menem’s running mate, Juan Romero, declared Sunday that their Peronist offshoot, Alliance Front for Loyalty, “is winning throughout the country.”

Although he admitted that the official vote count had not yet been completed, Romero said the results would “validate the certainty that we are winning.”

Kirchner’s vice-presidential candidate, Daniel Scioli, was also celebrating, saying that their Alliance Front for Victory had made it to the runoff, and called upon Argentine voters to unite in the second round vote for “a renovation of politics.”

For the first time since the Justicialista Party was founded in the middle of the last century, it was divided in national elections, unable to overcome internal disputes in order to hold primary elections.

And the Argentine courts ruled that none of the three candidates from the party created by Juan Domingo Perón could appear on the ballots accompanied by Justicialista symbols.

The exit poll results were bad news to the supporters of economist Ricardo López Murphy, of the right-wing Federal Movement to Rebuild, which in pre-election surveys had been given a chance of making it to the second round.

The former economy minister received 16 to 18 percent of the vote, according to the polling firms.

Pollster Ricardo Rouvier, who had predicted that López Murphy would win the first round elections, acknowledged that in the last few days “many people were alarmed by the possibility of a runoff between Menem and López Murphy, both seen as right-wing, and they changed their vote.”

Many of the last-minute switches may have gone to centre-left lawmaker Elisa Carrió – of the Party for a Republic of Equals – who, even though her campaign platform was diametrically opposed to that of López Murphy, shared with him the image of “new” and “honest” politicians, he explained.

According to the exit polls, Carrió came in fourth with 15 to 17 percent of the vote, displacing the third Peronist candidate, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, to fifth place.

Luis Verdi, spokesman for President Eduardo Duhalde, said that the two frontrunners are Menem and Kirchner, and underscored that “Carrió had a very good race,” with the possibility of winning third place, instead of López Murphy.

Sunday’s election was as fragmented as the political experts had predicted. “The Argentine people did not want to hand anyone clear hegemony like they have on other occasions,” commented pollster Enrique Zuleta Puceiro.

Interior minister Jorge Matzkin, meanwhile, applauded the high turnout for Sunday’s elections, estimated at 80 percent of the electoral roster of 25.4 million people. The vote is compulsory in Argentina, but even so there were predictions that many voters would stay home.

Caretaker President Duhalde, who was named to the post by the Argentine Congress in January 2002 in the wake of weeks of political upheaval, moved up the presidential elections six months, though parliamentary elections will take place in October, as originally scheduled.

Excerpt:

By Marcela Valente
BUENOS AIRES, Apr 27 2003 (IPS)

Two candidates from Argentina’s splintered ruling party, former president Carlos Menem (1989-1999) and governor of Santa Cruz province Néstor Kirchner, will face each other in the second round presidential elections on May 18 if the official tally bears out the polls conducted at voting sites Sunday.

Shortly after the voting locations were closed, the exit polls conducted by four consulting firms were released, showing that Justicialista (Peronist) Party rivals Menem and Kirchner were the two top vote-getters in Argentina’s highly fragmented electoral panorama.

According to one polling firm, Kirchner was the winner, but three others gave the lead to Menem.

Initial results of the official count were then announced, based on 11 percent of the ballots cast, upholding the predictions of the three firms. The Interior Ministry reported that Menem had so far received 25.1 percent of the vote and Kirchner 22.4.

None of the candidates is expected to reach the 45-percent mark, or the 40 percent with a 10-point advantage, required under the Argentine constitution to claim the presidency in the first round of elections. This will be the first time since this mechanism has been in force that a runoff vote has been needed.

Graciela Romer, sociologist and director of a polling firm, noted that opinion surveys conducted last week already showed that Menem does not have a chance of returning to the presidency.

“Menem was the candidate with the most solid foundation but with the lowest ceiling for the second round,” she said, referring to the fact that, despite some strong support, there is widespread rejection of Menem among the electorate.

Many blame him for the laying the groundwork for the country’s current economic woes, as Argentina struggles to recover from its worst-ever economic crisis, and he has been plagued by corruption scandals, spending five months under house arrest after being indicted on charges of “illicit association”.

Menem’s running mate, Juan Romero, declared Sunday that their Peronist offshoot, Alliance Front for Loyalty, “is winning throughout the country.”

Although he admitted that the official vote count had not yet been completed, Romero said the results would “validate the certainty that we are winning.”

Kirchner’s vice-presidential candidate, Daniel Scioli, was also celebrating, saying that their Alliance Front for Victory had made it to the runoff, and called upon Argentine voters to unite in the second round vote for “a renovation of politics.”

For the first time since the Justicialista Party was founded in the middle of the last century, it was divided in national elections, unable to overcome internal disputes in order to hold primary elections.

And the Argentine courts ruled that none of the three candidates from the party created by Juan Domingo Perón could appear on the ballots accompanied by Justicialista symbols.

The exit poll results were bad news to the supporters of economist Ricardo López Murphy, of the right-wing Federal Movement to Rebuild, which in pre-election surveys had been given a chance of making it to the second round.

The former economy minister received 16 to 18 percent of the vote, according to the polling firms.

Pollster Ricardo Rouvier, who had predicted that López Murphy would win the first round elections, acknowledged that in the last few days “many people were alarmed by the possibility of a runoff between Menem and López Murphy, both seen as right-wing, and they changed their vote.”

Many of the last-minute switches may have gone to centre-left lawmaker Elisa Carrió – of the Party for a Republic of Equals – who, even though her campaign platform was diametrically opposed to that of López Murphy, shared with him the image of “new” and “honest” politicians, he explained.

According to the exit polls, Carrió came in fourth with 15 to 17 percent of the vote, displacing the third Peronist candidate, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, to fifth place.

Luis Verdi, spokesman for President Eduardo Duhalde, said that the two frontrunners are Menem and Kirchner, and underscored that “Carrió had a very good race,” with the possibility of winning third place, instead of López Murphy.

Sunday’s election was as fragmented as the political experts had predicted. “The Argentine people did not want to hand anyone clear hegemony like they have on other occasions,” commented pollster Enrique Zuleta Puceiro.

Interior minister Jorge Matzkin, meanwhile, applauded the high turnout for Sunday’s elections, estimated at 80 percent of the electoral roster of 25.4 million people. The vote is compulsory in Argentina, but even so there were predictions that many voters would stay home.

Caretaker President Duhalde, who was named to the post by the Argentine Congress in January 2002 in the wake of weeks of political upheaval, moved up the presidential elections six months, though parliamentary elections will take place in October, as originally scheduled. (END/IPS/LA/IP/TRA-SO LD/MV/DCL/03)

Excerpt: